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The document forecasts that Africa's population will grow to over 1.8 billion by 2035, potentially compounding poverty if economic growth and job creation do not keep pace. While economic growth is expected, it will be heterogeneous, with oil-dependent nations remaining vulnerable to price shocks. The region faces significant infrastructure gaps, particularly in electricity and water, and rapid urbanisation that may increase social instability. Despite a rise in riots and protests, high-fatality violence is lower than in the 1990s. Popular support for democracy remains strong, although actual democratic governance remains fragile and limited in scope.

The document analyzes Boko Haram's shift toward 'soft targets,' specifically displaced populations in Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger, and Chad. It details the rise in attacks on IDP and refugee camps, the use of female and child suicide bombers, and the infiltration of refugee flows by militants. The author argues that these tactics may serve strategic purposes, such as 'capacity swamping' to coerce governments, turning host communities against refugees, and increasing the group's international visibility.

The report examines Nigerian citizens' views on Boko Haram, identifying a complex interplay of financial incentives, lack of education, and a desire for belonging as primary recruitment drivers. It highlights a deep distrust of Nigerian political institutions and local government, contrasted with higher trust in the presidency and religious leaders. The study finds that while many citizens favor military action, there is significant support for non-military solutions and a strong belief that corruption is a primary security threat. Funding is perceived to come largely from politicians and other terrorist groups, though criminal activities also contribute.

The policy brief examines the increasing presence of sub-Saharan African migrants in Algeria and Morocco, noting that while they have not been significantly implicated in terrorism, their precarious socio-economic conditions and exposure to racism create vulnerabilities. It advocates for the operationalisation of regularisation schemes and the adoption of non-coercive PVE strategies based on UN pillars to prevent future radicalisation.

The report finds that current finance flows for decentralized energy access are insufficient to meet national targets, with a particularly severe gap in the clean cooking sector. While enterprises in Kenya and Bangladesh show some success through PAYGO models and local currency debt, most others rely heavily on equity and grants. Key barriers include high collateral requirements, currency volatility, and a lack of local debt for SMEs.

The report identifies a diverse but fragmented ecosystem of 174 initiatives aiming to integrate gender diversity and social inclusion into the sustainable energy transition. While significant activity exists—particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia—the sector is hindered by a lack of multi-year funding, limited technical capacity among women, and restrictive social norms. The document argues that empowering women is a catalyst for energy access, noting that women influence 80% of household energy purchasing decisions, and calls for a shift toward rights-based approaches and strategic cross-sector partnerships to achieve universal energy access by 2030.

The report finds that current financial commitments for energy access are significantly below the levels required to meet 2030 universal access goals. For electricity, annual commitments averaged $19.4 billion, far short of the estimated $45 billion needed, with 90% of funds targeting centralized grid infrastructure. Clean cooking investment is critically low, averaging only $32 million per year against a minimum estimated need of $4.4 billion. The analysis highlights a heavy reliance on international public finance and a significant gap in tracking domestic private investment.

The report finds that finance flows to decentralized energy access enterprises are significantly lower than required to meet national targets, with a particularly severe gap in the clean cooking sector. While some markets like Kenya are dynamic due to PAYGO models and mobile money, others like Ethiopia and Myanmar struggle with severe foreign exchange restrictions and a heavy reliance on grants. Across all five countries, high collateral requirements from banks and currency volatility are primary barriers to obtaining debt. The study estimates that annual finance needs for Tiers 1-3 energy access in these five countries are approximately $3.97 billion, while the total estimated cost for meeting clean cooking targets through 2030 across four of the countries is $18.44 billion per year.

The report identifies 'high-impact' countries critical to achieving universal sustainable energy access. It highlights that 85% of people lacking clean cooking fuels live in 20 high-impact countries and 80% of those without electricity reside in 20 high-impact nations, primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. While some countries like India, Bangladesh, Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda have enabling policy environments, many others lack the regulatory frameworks and creditworthy utilities needed to attract investment. The report also notes that global energy efficiency improvements (2.1% annually in 2012-14) are below the 2.6% target, and doubling the renewable energy share in the global mix by 2030 requires a rise from 18.3% to 36% of Total Final Energy Consumption.

Nigeria faces severe economic water scarcity and climate-driven ecological challenges, including desertification in the north and oil pollution in the Niger Delta. These stressors, compounded by weak governance, have fueled violent conflicts: Boko Haram leverages frustration over water deprivation, ethnic tensions rise in the Middle Belt due to shifting rainfall patterns affecting herders and farmers, and militants in the Niger Delta attack oil infrastructure over land and water rights. The document argues that Nigeria's instability poses risks to U.S. security interests regarding global oil prices, regional extremism, and migration, recommending U.S. support for drought-tolerant seeds, remote sensing for crisis prediction, and improved local water governance.

The executive summary outlines how water-driven stresses—caused by both human mismanagement and climate change—undermine governance and livelihoods, leading to migration, conflict, and the rise of insurgencies, which in turn destabilize U.S. foreign interests.

The document examines the infrastructure financing gap in sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting the distinct needs of low-income countries (LICs) and middle-income countries (MICs). While MDBs provide low-interest loans and technical expertise, they face competition from private financiers and bilateral investors. LICs struggle with indebtedness and declining official development assistance, often resorting to expensive private loans, whereas MICs leverage domestic markets and attract more private investment. Common challenges across the continent include a lack of technical skills for public-private partnerships, a reliance on single commodities, and overly bureaucratic MDB approval processes. The author concludes that MDBs must move away from treating Africa as a monolith and instead adopt country-specific strategies.

This research paper examines the challenges facing Nigeria's foreign policy since its return to electoral democracy in 1999, arguing that domestic instability and leadership failures have undermined its regional and global influence.

The document examines the development of inclusive insurance in Zambia, focusing on the role of the Technical Advisory Group (TAG) and FSD Zambia in overcoming market constraints. It details the growth of microinsurance coverage, the diversification of products and distribution channels, and the challenges of regulatory delays. The case study uses the AAER (Adopt-Adapt-Expand-Respond) framework to evaluate systemic change and provides lessons on market facilitation, emphasizing the balance between direct intervention and building local industry ownership.

The document argues that fuel subsidy reform is essential for Nigeria's economic diversification but requires a 'portfolio approach' to compensation to prevent social unrest and protect the poor. It proposes seven specific programs—including transport vouchers, mass transit schemes, and e-wallets for farmers—with an estimated first-year budget of ₦250 billion (USD 1.3 billion). The report emphasizes that these measures should be implemented through existing ministries rather than new institutions, with oversight provided by a new Directorate for Subsidy Reinvestment Monitoring under the National Planning Commission.

The document analyzes South Africa's transition from a leading 'norm entrepreneur' in Africa during the Mandela and Mbeki eras to a state currently facing a 'crisis of expectations' under President Jacob Zuma. While South Africa historically exported its model of democratic transition through mediation in Burundi and the DRC and the reform of continental institutions like the AU and SADC, it is now criticized for failing to oppose democratic reversals and human rights abuses. The brief highlights contradictions in South Africa's current approach, including its controversial withdrawal from the International Criminal Court and its reluctance to vote on country-specific human rights issues in the UN. It recommends that South Africa leverage its soft power and financial influence within the AU and SADC to regain its status as a champion of peace and governance.

The document analyzes Côte d’Ivoire's transition from a passive actor during decades of crisis to a re-emerging regional power under President Alassane Ouattara. It examines the institutional framework of Ivorian diplomacy, its bilateral relations with neighbors, and its leadership roles within regional organizations like UEMOA and ECOWAS, while noting the enduring influence of Félix Houphouët-Boigny's legacy.

The document examines South Africa's transition from a liberal FDI regime to one focused on 'public interest' and sustainable development. It analyzes the role of the Competition Act and the Protection of Investment Act (PIA) in regulating mergers and acquisitions (M&As), using the Walmart-Massmart merger as a case study to illustrate the tension between investor interests and domestic socio-economic goals. The paper highlights risks associated with the PIA, such as the loss of international arbitration and subjective compensation standards, while suggesting improvements through a 'One-Stop Shop' for investors and support for small, medium and micro-sized enterprises (SMMEs) to integrate into regional value chains.

ClientEarth argues that the Commission on Human Rights of the Philippines has the jurisdiction to investigate the Carbon Majors because climate change threatens fundamental civil and political rights. The brief asserts that there is a linear causal relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and global warming, and that the Carbon Majors' emissions have contributed significantly to this process. It recommends that the Philippine government ratify the Paris Agreement and that the Carbon Majors publish business plans aligned with a warming limit of well below 2 degrees Celsius, in accordance with the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights.

The Paris Agreement entered into force on 4 November 2016, with 100 countries representing 67% of global greenhouse gas emissions having ratified it. COP22 and the first meeting of the CMA are tasked with developing operational rules for transparency, progress monitoring, and ramping up ambition to limit global temperature rise to well below 2 degrees Celsius. Key points of contention include the verification of national commitments and the insufficiency of pledges to meet the $100 billion climate finance goal for developing countries by 2020. South Africa has ratified the agreement and set an emissions reduction target of 398–614 MtCO2e for 2025–2030, though this is largely conditional on external assistance and complicated by a continued reliance on coal and budgetary restraints.