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Making blended finance work for nature-based solutions
The document argues that the global biodiversity finance gap—estimated at an annual need of USD 536 billion by 2050—cannot be closed by grants alone. It proposes a blended finance approach that integrates information, regulatory, economic, institutional, and financial instruments to de-risk investments and catalyze private capital. Using the Green Climate Fund's (GCF) portfolio as a basis, the paper demonstrates how combining instruments (e.g., pairing carbon credits with parametric insurance), sequencing them along a maturity-concessionality gradient (e.g., the Amazon Bioeconomy Fund), and establishing long-term partnerships (e.g., Project Finance for Permanence) can create sustainable financial models for nature-based solutions.
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Document type: Research paper
Europe Gas Tracker Report 2023
The report details a surge in EU gas infrastructure projects, including 30 fast-tracked LNG terminals and extensive pipeline networks, driven by the 'gas panic' after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. It warns that the proposed 227.2 bcm/y of additional LNG capacity would increase the EU's maximum import capacity by 136%, potentially costing €53.5 billion and emitting up to 950 million tons of CO2 annually. The document argues that these uncoordinated efforts, led by countries like Germany, Greece, and Italy, conflict with the EU's 'Fit for 55' climate goals and the European Climate Law. Additionally, it critiques the 'European Hydrogen Backbone' initiative, stating that repurposing methane pipelines for hydrogen is technically risky and economically unjustified, further entrenching fossil fuel use.
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Document type: Report
Shifting Public Financial Flows from Fossil Fuels to Clean Energy under the Paris Agreement
The report argues that governments have failed to fulfill commitments to shift public financial flows away from fossil fuels, with subsidies increasing since the Paris Agreement. It identifies significant data gaps regarding state-owned enterprise investments and provides a framework for fossil fuel subsidy reform based on pricing, impact management, and stakeholder support.
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Document type: Report
The Russia–Ukraine War: Implications for Africa
The document examines how African nations have navigated the Russia-Ukraine war, highlighting a preference for non-alignment driven by historical grievances with Western leadership and strategic national interests. It details the varied voting patterns of African states at the UN General Assembly, the potential for Africa to fill Europe's energy gap through gas and critical minerals, and the risks posed by great-power competition to regional security, particularly in the Sahel.
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Document type: Research paper
New Hubs of Gas Extraction in Africa
The document highlights a shift in African gas extraction toward countries that have not historically exploited fossil fuels, noting that 84 percent of new pre-production reserves are located in recent entrants. It argues that these developments, largely destined for export, will increase gas production by a third by 2030 but will fail to address local electrification needs while exacerbating climate change and environmental risks.
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Document type: Briefing
The European Green Deal and the African Private Sector
The European Green Deal (EGD) offers the African private sector significant opportunities in green hydrogen production and the supply of critical raw materials, driven by the EU's need for energy security and supply chain diversification. While various funding instruments like InvestEU and the Global Gateway Africa-Europe Investment Package exist, the report warns of a potential 'unequal partnership' where Africa remains a mere resource supplier. It emphasizes the need for African stakeholders to proactively engage in technology transfer and co-creation to avoid lock-in effects and ensure inclusive growth.
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Document type: Report
Der europäische Green Deal und der afrikanische Privatsektor (EN)
The document explores how the European Green Deal (EGD) creates opportunities for the African private sector, particularly in green hydrogen and critical minerals, while warning against a return to a resource-supplier relationship. It details various EU funding mechanisms, technology transfer possibilities, and capacity-building programs, providing recommendations for African governments and companies to proactively engage with the EU to ensure an equal partnership.
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Document type: Research paper
Foreign Policy: Nigeria Must Get Out of Its Own Way
This research paper analyzes Nigeria's foreign policy under President Buhari, arguing that a persistent conflict between regional aspirations and domestic policy instincts has hindered the country's economic and diplomatic goals. The author highlights how domestic measures, such as land border closures and a delay in ratifying the AfCFTA, contradicted Nigeria's stated goals of regional integration and economic growth.
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Document type: Research paper
Nigeria’s foreign policy during President Buhari’s time in office
The document analyzes the foreign policy of Nigeria under President Buhari, highlighting a lack of coherence between domestic goals and regional aspirations. Key issues discussed include the 2019 land border closures, which aimed to curb smuggling but increased food inflation and harmed regional trade; the delayed ratification of the AfCFTA due to domestic productivity concerns; and the decline of the oil sector caused by insecurity and poor governance, which deterred foreign direct investment. It also evaluates the role of the Nigerians in Diaspora Commission (NIDCOM) in managing relations with Nigerians abroad amidst increasing economic migration.
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Document type: Research paper
GENDER EQUALITY AND SOCIAL INCLUSION PLAN
Project GAIA establishes a framework to integrate gender equality and social inclusion into its investment cycle, requiring all approved projects to develop specific GESI Action Plans. The plan focuses on five pillars: governance, leadership, employment, capacity building, and consumption (access to basic services). It sets platform-level targets, such as achieving 30% women in governance by year one, and project-level requirements, including mandatory gender assessments and the use of sex-disaggregated data in impact reporting. The framework also incorporates safeguarding measures against sexual exploitation, abuse, and harassment (SEAH) and gender-based violence (GBVH).
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Document type: Report
Israel and the Abraham Accords: A Failed Expansion
The document argues that Israel's ambition to expand the Abraham Accords, particularly to Saudi Arabia, has been thwarted by a combination of far-right domestic policies and Saudi Arabia's strategic pivot toward normalization with Iran, Syria, and Hamas. While existing agreements with states like the UAE remain economically robust, the brief notes that the current Israeli government's actions in the West Bank and its judicial reforms have strained relations with the US and Jordan, while removing the primary incentive for Saudi engagement.
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Document type: Policy brief
The Open Government Partnership and Anti-Corruption in Conservation: Templates for Collective Action
The document argues that the Open Government Partnership (OGP) is an underutilized platform for conservationists to drive transparency, participation, and accountability in natural resource governance. It provides three specific templates for creating OGP commitments: beneficial ownership transparency to combat deforestation, openness and integrity in wildlife law enforcement, and participatory governance for Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). The guide emphasizes that these reforms help prevent 'open washing' by using multi-stakeholder forums and independent reporting to track government progress.
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Document type: Guide
NEW REALITIES OF THE RUSSIAN COAL SECTOR: FOCUS ON KUZBASS
The report analyzes how EU and G7 sanctions on Russian coal imports have disrupted the Kuzbass region, which produces over 55% of Russia's coal. It details the region's high economic dependency on coal, the logistical challenges of redirecting exports to Asia, and the risks of social unrest due to potential job losses. The document presents three future scenarios (Reference, Soft, and Hard) through 2030, projecting significant declines in production, revenue, and employment under the 'Hard' scenario, while noting that reduced coal activity may lower methane and CO2 emissions.
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Document type: Report
International Public Opinion on Climate Change: Extreme Weather and Vulnerability, 2023
The report finds that majorities in all 73 surveyed low-emission areas have experienced extreme weather, with unusually hot weather being the most common hazard. Most respondents attribute these events to climate change, yet significant gaps in individual and household preparedness exist, particularly in South America and Europe. Recovery times vary widely, with some populations in Central Asia and the Balkans expecting recovery to take a year or more.
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Document type: Report
منطقة الشرق األوسط وشمال أفريقيا تنمي مصادر الطاقة المتجددة بمقدار النصف، لكنها ما زالت تتعامل بالهيدروجين والغاز الخطيرين
The MENA region increased its operational renewable energy capacity by 57% since May 2022, adding 6.9 GW of solar and wind power. While there is a massive pipeline of 361 GW in planned projects, 60% of this capacity is earmarked for green hydrogen production and export rather than domestic decarbonization. The region remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, with oil and gas providing over 90% of electricity, and 18 of 23 analyzed countries planning to expand their gas and oil power fleets. To fully decarbonize the electricity sector by 2050, the region would need to add 19 GW of solar and wind capacity annually.
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Document type: Report
REPOWERING THE MEDITERRANEAN: REFLECTIONS ON GRID INFRASTRUCTURE DIPLOMACY
The document analyzes the Mediterranean's electricity grid infrastructure, identifying four main interconnection zones and various proposed projects like the EuroAsia and EuroAfrica Interconnectors. It highlights how geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Eastern Mediterranean, hinder integration while suggesting that the energy transition and EU demand for renewables could drive cooperation. The author proposes guidelines for enhancing interconnectivity, emphasizing the need for political alignment and regulatory cooperation.
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Document type: Research paper
The double duality of migrant smugglers: an analytical framework
The author introduces the 'double duality' framework, arguing that smugglers are simultaneously perceived as problems and solutions by both migrants and states. For migrants, smugglers provide essential mobility but pose risks of exploitation; for states, smugglers undermine border control but provide 'moral capital' that justifies restrictive policies. The paper analyzes how destination states use a 'protection narrative'—casting smugglers as villains and migrants as victims—to maintain political authority while limiting asylum access. It further distinguishes between 'facilitation' and 'exploitation' to show that not all dangers faced by migrants originate from smugglers, and that counter-smuggling measures often shift risks onto the migrants themselves.
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Document type: Research paper
The scramble for Africa’s gas
The document analyzes a planned US$245 billion expansion of gas infrastructure in Africa, highlighting a significant imbalance where investment in LNG export terminals and pipelines far outweighs investment in domestic power generation. It warns that these projects, often driven by Europe's short-term energy crisis following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, risk becoming stranded assets while failing to address low electricity access in countries like Nigeria, Mozambique, and Tanzania.
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Document type: Briefing
A luta pelo gás de África
The document analyzes the current and planned gas infrastructure in Africa, highlighting a significant imbalance where the majority of investment is directed toward LNG exports to Europe rather than domestic electrification. It details the costs and capacities of LNG terminals, pipelines, and gas-fired power plants, noting that while billions are proposed for development, much of this remains in the proposal stage and faces financial risks due to the transient nature of European energy demand.
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Document type: Briefing
ENGIE: replacing one problem with another
The document criticizes ENGIE's coal phase-out strategy, claiming the company avoids genuine decarbonization by selling coal plants to third parties or converting them to fossil gas and solid biomass. It highlights specific asset sales in Europe, Brazil, and Morocco, and conversions in Chile, arguing these actions are not aligned with a 1.5°C trajectory and risk ecological damage.
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Document type: Statement