The Russia–Ukraine War: Implications for Africa

The document examines how African nations have navigated the Russia-Ukraine war, highlighting a preference for non-alignment driven by historical grievances with Western leadership and strategic national interests. It details the varied voting patterns of African states at the UN General Assembly, the potential for Africa to fill Europe's energy gap through gas and critical minerals, and the risks posed by great-power competition to regional security, particularly in the Sahel.

• African reluctance to align with the West regarding the invasion of Ukraine is rooted in a perception of the conflict as great-power competition and a lack of confidence in Western leadership, specifically citing NATO's 2011 intervention in Libya and the hoarding of COVID-19 vaccines by Western nations.
• African voting patterns in the UN General Assembly (UNGA) show a nuanced approach: countries are generally more willing to condemn Russia based on UN Charter principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity, but are reluctant to support resolutions involving punitive measures against Russia.
• African responses to the war can be categorized into four groups: those in solidarity with Russia (e.g., Eritrea), those with close Russian ties using abstention to signal neutrality (e.g., Algeria, Sudan, Uganda), those abstaining to emphasize the need for dialogue (e.g., South Africa), and those taking a principled stand against the violation of sovereignty (e.g., Kenya, Ghana).
• While the war caused global food insecurity, the document argues that Africa's dependence on Ukrainian wheat is often exaggerated, as 90% of those imports are concentrated in only five countries.
• Europe's effort to phase out Russian energy creates opportunities for African gas-rich nations like Algeria, Nigeria, and Mozambique to increase exports, and for countries like Morocco and Niger to collect transit fees via pipelines such as the Nigeria–Morocco Gas Pipeline and the trans-Saharan gas pipeline (NIGAL).
• The EU's need for critical raw materials (lithium, cobalt, nickel, manganese, and graphite) for the energy transition is expected to increase mining investments in Africa, coinciding with a shift by African nations toward localized refining rather than just extraction.
• The EU's European Peace Facility (EUPF) allows Brussels to bypass the African Union and fund national military initiatives directly, as seen in Mozambique, which the author suggests could weaken the AU's peacekeeping role and pit fragile governments against each other.
• Great-power rivalry is undermining regional security in the Sahel; the shift of Mali and Burkina Faso toward Russia and the Wagner Group has strained relations with ECOWAS and the West, hindering collaborative mechanisms like the Accra Initiative.
• The author recommends that African countries adopt a foreign policy combining non-alignment with the concept of 'indivisible security'—the principle that no state should strengthen its security at the expense of others—to avoid becoming proxies in a new Cold War.

APA

EGUEGU, O. (2023). The Russia–Ukraine War: Implications for Africa. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/SAIIA_OP-343_RussiaUkraineWar-1.pdf

Chicago

EGUEGU, OVIGWE. The Russia–Ukraine War: Implications for Africa. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2023. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/SAIIA_OP-343_RussiaUkraineWar-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=EGUEGU |first1=OVIGWE |title=The Russia–Ukraine War: Implications for Africa |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=March 2023 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/SAIIA_OP-343_RussiaUkraineWar-1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{eguegu2023russiaukraine, author = {EGUEGU, OVIGWE}, title = {{The Russia–Ukraine War: Implications for Africa}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2023}, month = mar, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2023/05/SAIIA_OP-343_RussiaUkraineWar-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }