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Reefs at Risk Revisited
The Reefs at Risk Revisited analysis finds that approximately 75 percent of global coral reefs are threatened by local and global pressures, with local threats affecting over 60 percent. Without intervention to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and local pressures, threatened reefs could increase to over 90 percent by 2030 and nearly all reefs by 2050. While over 25 percent of reefs are in marine protected areas, only 6 percent are effectively managed. The report identifies 27 nations as most vulnerable to reef degradation, including Haiti, Indonesia, and the Philippines.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Reefs at Risk Revisited: Middle East
The Middle East contains approximately 6 percent of the world's coral reefs, with nearly two-thirds currently at risk from local threats, most notably overfishing. While some areas of the Red Sea remain under low threat, the Persian Gulf is highly stressed, with over 85 percent of its reefs considered threatened. Projections indicate that thermal stress and ocean acidification will push all reefs in the region to threatened status by 2050. Currently, only 12 percent of the region's reefs are within Marine Protected Areas, though Egypt has significant coverage with about 50 percent of its reefs protected.
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Document type: Fact sheet
South Africa and the BRICs: A Crisis of Identity in Foreign Policy
The author questions the strategic value of South Africa joining the BRICs, noting that the group is an informal construct rather than a coherent political or economic bloc. The paper argues that BRICs membership does not inherently improve trade and investment opportunities, as bilateral barriers persist and the group includes economic competitors. Furthermore, the author suggests that joining the BRICs may undermine the IBSA Dialogue Forum and contradict South Africa's image as an assertive regional power.
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Document type: Research paper
South Africa’s Second Term at the UN Security Council: Managing Expectations
The report examines South Africa's 2011–2012 tenure on the UN Security Council, highlighting the tension between its aspirations for permanent membership and the rigidities of the Ezulwini Consensus. It analyzes global power shifts, specifically the decline of US omnipotence and the rise of China, and identifies key thematic priorities for South Africa, including the UN-AU relationship on peacebuilding, the 'peace versus justice' debate regarding the ICC and Article 16, holistic counter-terrorism strategies, and nuclear non-proliferation. The document argues that South Africa must balance its identity as a global actor with its leadership role in Africa to effectively influence an anachronistic Council.
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Document type: Report
The Most Expensive Thing California Can Do Is Nothing
A group of economists argues that California's clean energy policies, specifically AB 32, provide economic benefits through innovation, job creation, and reduced health costs, and that delaying these actions during an economic recession would be more costly than proceeding.
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Document type: Statement
‘Keep Calm and Carry On’
The document evaluates the outcomes of the 2010 NPT Review Conference, highlighting the tension between the aspirations of Non-Nuclear Weapon States (NNWS), particularly those in Africa, and the reluctance of Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) to commit to firm disarmament timelines. While it notes achievements such as the agreement to convene a conference on a Middle East nuclear-weapon-free zone in 2012 and the reaffirmation of the right to peaceful nuclear energy, it argues that the final document largely maintains the status quo. The authors emphasize the importance of the Treaty of Pelindaba and the need for a comprehensive Nuclear Weapons Convention to move beyond the NPT's perceived discriminatory structure.
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Document type: Research paper
CRED: A New Model of Climate and Development
The CRED model investigates how international equity and capital flows influence climate stabilization. It argues that an optimal, welfare-maximizing climate policy requires significant resource transfers from high-income to developing regions to fund abatement and economic growth. The model utilizes McKinsey marginal abatement cost curves and a concave utility function to demonstrate that without such transfers or a very low discount rate, developing countries are unlikely to implement sufficient mitigation to prevent dangerous temperature increases.
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Document type: Research paper
Within-Country Income Inequality in Multi-decade Scenarios
The research argues that within-country income inequality is driven more by socio-political institutions and state ideology than by economic development or market forces. By integrating Chakravorty's qualitative model of state regimes (extractive, redistributive, and reinvestment) with the quantitative Selectorate theory, the author develops a model where the size of the 'winning coalition' and the bias toward redistribution versus reinvestment serve as primary predictors of the Gini coefficient. Empirical testing using data from 1970-1990 shows that the size of the winning coalition is a strongly significant predictor of inequality, while GDP per capita is not. The paper applies this model to 104 countries across three stylized 50-year global convergence scenarios, finding that redistributive regimes yield the lowest inequality and extractive regimes the highest.
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Document type: Research paper
Der Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) – (ab)used by Germany?
The research paper analyzes Germany's engagement with the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) up to July 2009, arguing that both the global mechanism and German state policy prioritize the quantity of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) over the quality of sustainable development. The author finds that German projects are heavily concentrated in Asia, particularly China and India, and are dominated by large-scale industrial 'end-of-pipe' projects that offer minimal sustainable development benefits. The document concludes that the German government uses the CDM primarily as a tool for economic and export promotion rather than as a means to achieve genuine climate and development goals, thereby 'abusing' the mechanism's original purpose.
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Document type: Research paper
The Energy and National Security Benefits of Climate Action
The document outlines how climate action benefits U.S. national security through three primary channels: reducing reliance on foreign oil, transitioning to a distributed energy system to lower infrastructure vulnerability, and preventing climate-driven global instability. It specifically highlights that reducing petroleum consumption by 6 million barrels per day by 2030 could match current OPEC imports, and warns that climate change acts as a "threat multiplier" that could increase the burden on the U.S. military through humanitarian missions and threats to strategic bases like Diego Garcia.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East
The report argues that climate change in the Middle East—predicted to be hotter, drier, and less predictable—threatens to reduce water availability and increase food insecurity, which may lead to violent conflict. It highlights that the region's history of hostility undermines the ability of countries to collaborate on adaptation and shared resources. Potential security risks include increased competition for water, destabilizing forced migration, and the militarization of strategic natural resources. However, the report suggests that promoting conservation, fostering cooperation on shared resources, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions can mitigate these threats to regional peace.
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Document type: Report
Bilateral Finance Institutions and Climate Change: A Mapping of Climate Portfolios
The report finds that Bilateral Finance Institutions (BFIs) play a major role in global climate finance, with four participating institutions (AFD, JICA, KfW, and EIB) collectively disbursing €8.09 billion in 2008. The majority of this funding (85%) is delivered as Official Development Assistance (ODA), with a heavy concentration on mitigation (72%) and the energy sector. Geographically, Asia and Oceania receive the largest share of finance. The document highlights a significant gap in adaptation funding, which is heavily concentrated in the water sector, and calls for better definitions of adaptation finance and increased coordination among BFIs to enhance effectiveness.
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Document type: Research paper
Review of Agricultural Water Management Intervention Impacts at the Watershed Scale: a Synthesis Using the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework
The review finds that AWM interventions generally produce positive impacts across five capitals—financial, natural, social, physical, and human—with projects employing multiple interventions yielding more positive results. However, it highlights a critical lack of systematic monitoring and evaluation, particularly regarding negative externalities and long-term sustainability.
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Document type: Report
Analyse et gestion du changement climatique et de ses effets sur l’eau : projets de recherche allemands
The document details various German-led research initiatives focused on the intersection of climate change and water. It covers regional climate modeling for Germany, the impact of extreme weather on biogeochemical cycles, global water scarcity, and specific case studies such as the GLOWA projects in the Elbe and Jordan River basins. Additionally, it discusses aquatic ecosystem vulnerabilities through the AQUASHIFT program and proposes a risk-management approach for coastal flood protection in Hamburg.
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Document type: Report
Implications of Climate Change for Armed Conflict
The paper investigates how climate change—specifically through resource scarcity, sea-level rise, and natural disasters—may increase the risk of armed conflict. It proposes a two-stage causal model where environmental changes trigger social catalysts such as economic instability, political instability, social fragmentation, migration, and inappropriate responses. The authors highlight a paradox: while global warming has accelerated, the frequency and severity of armed conflict have generally declined. Empirically, the authors find that statistical literature has failed to establish a robust, general association between resource scarcity and civil war, suggesting that conflict risk depends heavily on country-specific vulnerabilities and governance. The paper recommends prioritizing sustainable development in vulnerable societies and integrating security analysis into IPCC assessments.
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Document type: Research paper
CARBON LEAKAGE FROM THE EU EMISSION TRADING SCHEME: A COMMENT ON THE CEMENT SECTOR
The paper argues that the EU cement sector is more exposed to carbon leakage than generally assumed, particularly in coastal regions. Using two models with a CO2 price of 30 €/t, the author finds that short-term import levels in coastal regions would rise from 13% to 25%, with an overall EU leakage rate of 65%. In the long term, EU cement capacity is projected to decline by 13% as imports become more attractive during peak demand. The author concludes that while output-based allocation might mitigate financial pressure, a severe world recession would likely induce a similar industrial restructuring to that of a full auctioning scheme.
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Document type: Research paper
Imagine a World...
In a 2007 speech, Amory B. Lovins advocates for 'linked, multiplying solutions' to global problems, envisioning a future where energy efficiency, distributed renewables, and advanced biofuels replace oil, coal, and nuclear power. He describes a world where carbon emissions decline profitably, resource waste is eliminated through biomimicry and integrative engineering, and global stability is achieved through the removal of energy-driven conflicts and the adoption of a resource-efficient human population.
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Document type: Statement
Globalization, Women’s Economic Rights and Forced Labor
The research finds that increased trade openness is associated with better economic rights for women and a lower incidence of forced labor, both in global and developing country samples. In contrast, the level of foreign direct investment (FDI) penetration generally shows no statistically significant impact on these specific labor rights.
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Document type: Research paper
Intellectual Property in European Partnership Agreements with the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of Countries
The document argues that the European Union is pursuing 'TRIPS-plus' intellectual property standards in its European Partnership Agreements (EPAs) with 76 African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries. It suggests that the EU's mandate to strengthen intellectual property rights (IPR) provisions and enforcement could negatively influence global IP norms at the WTO and WIPO, potentially undermining the prospects of developing countries in multilateral negotiations.
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Document type: Report
Energy Security in Asia: China, India, Oil and Peace
India and China are experiencing rapid economic growth and a corresponding surge in energy consumption, leading to an increasing reliance on imported oil, primarily from the Persian Gulf. Both nations are pursuing similar strategies to mitigate this vulnerability: diversifying import sources, acquiring equity oil through overseas investments, building strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs), and shifting toward natural gas and nuclear power. While there are efforts toward Sino-Indian energy cooperation, such as joint bids for oilfields in third countries, competition remains high, particularly in contested areas like Burma. The report outlines three future scenarios: 'Increased cooperation,' 'Conflict in East Asia' (centered on Taiwan and Japan), and 'The Middle East explodes' (a full-scale resource war). It recommends that Norway support energy efficiency, clean coal and gas technologies, and the inclusion of China and India in the International Energy Agency (IEA).
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Document type: Report