Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East

The report argues that climate change in the Middle East—predicted to be hotter, drier, and less predictable—threatens to reduce water availability and increase food insecurity, which may lead to violent conflict. It highlights that the region's history of hostility undermines the ability of countries to collaborate on adaptation and shared resources. Potential security risks include increased competition for water, destabilizing forced migration, and the militarization of strategic natural resources. However, the report suggests that promoting conservation, fostering cooperation on shared resources, and reducing greenhouse gas emissions can mitigate these threats to regional peace.

• The history of conflict and mistrust in the Levant region impairs the capacity of countries and communities to adapt to climate change, making the challenge more severe by hindering collaboration on shared resources and multilateral action.
• Climate change creates direct security risks in the region, including intensified food insecurity, increased competition for water that may complicate peace agreements, economic stagnation leading to social instability, and destabilizing forced migration.
• National governments, civil society, and the international community can mitigate security threats by promoting a culture of conservation, assisting with climate adaptation, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing cooperation regarding shared resources.

APA

Brown,, A. C. (2009). Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/rising-temperatures-rising-tensions-climate-change-and-risk-violent-conflict

Chicago

Brown,, Alec Crawford,Oli. Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2009. https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/rising-temperatures-rising-tensions-climate-change-and-risk-violent-conflict.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Brown, |first1=Alec Crawford,Oli |title=Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=2 June 2009 |url=https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/rising-temperatures-rising-tensions-climate-change-and-risk-violent-conflict |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{brown2009rising, author = {Brown,, Alec Crawford,Oli}, title = {{Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2009}, month = jun, url = {https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/rising-temperatures-rising-tensions-climate-change-and-risk-violent-conflict}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }