Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East

This report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) examines how climate change interacts with existing political tensions in the Middle East, specifically the Levant, to increase the risk of violent conflict through water scarcity, food insecurity, and economic instability.

• Climate models predict a hotter, drier, and less predictable climate for the Middle East, a region already characterized as the most water-scarce globally. In Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Israel, and the occupied Palestinian territory, these changes threaten to reduce water availability, increase food insecurity, hinder economic growth, and cause large-scale population movements.
• The history of conflict and mistrust in the Levant undermines the capacity of local communities and nations to adapt to climate change. This legacy complicates collaboration on shared resources, investments in water and energy efficiency, and the pursuit of multilateral climate action, making the challenges of climate change more severe.
• Climate change creates direct security risks by increasing competition for water, complicating peace agreements, and intensifying food insecurity, which may raise stakes regarding occupied land. Further risks include worsening poverty, social instability, forced migration, the militarization of natural resources, and increased distrust of the West.

APA

Brown,, A. C. (2009). Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/rising-temperatures-rising-tensions-climate-change-and-risk-violent-conflict

Chicago

Brown,, Alec Crawford,Oli. Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2009. https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/rising-temperatures-rising-tensions-climate-change-and-risk-violent-conflict.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Brown, |first1=Alec Crawford,Oli |title=Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=2 June 2009 |url=https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/rising-temperatures-rising-tensions-climate-change-and-risk-violent-conflict |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{brown2009rising, author = {Brown,, Alec Crawford,Oli}, title = {{Rising Temperatures, Rising Tensions: Climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2009}, month = jun, url = {https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/rising-temperatures-rising-tensions-climate-change-and-risk-violent-conflict}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }