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In 2025, global coal capacity increased by 3.5% while production fell by 0.6%, as coal is increasingly used as 'system insurance' rather than a primary energy source. This trend is most prominent in China and India, where renewables are meeting new demand despite record coal plant commissioning. Globally, the number of countries proposing new coal plants dropped to 32. In Indonesia, coal expansion continues through 'captive' plants for nickel and aluminium industries, reaching 20 GW, while national energy plans (RUKN and RUPTL) are criticized for maintaining fossil fuel dependency and lacking a clear phase-out roadmap despite official net-zero commitments.

In 2025, global coal capacity increased by 3.5% while production fell by 0.6%, as coal is increasingly used as 'system insurance' rather than a primary energy source. While the number of countries pursuing new coal projects dropped to 32, China and India continue massive expansions. In Indonesia, the growth of captive coal plants for nickel and aluminium processing contradicts national climate commitments, with the RUPTL 2025-2034 continuing to plan for on-grid coal investment despite a formal moratorium.

The document details Indonesia's strategic position in the global minerals market, particularly nickel, driven by aggressive downstream processing policies and export bans. It highlights the economic significance of mining (11% of GDP) and the associated environmental costs, including rising energy-sector emissions and deforestation. Socially, it notes significant gender disparities in the mining workforce and the prevalence of artisanal mining risks.

The report examines the expansion of geothermal energy in Indonesia, highlighting the role of the World Bank and Asian Development Bank in funding projects that mitigate corporate risk while shifting social and environmental burdens to local communities. It documents specific instances of water depletion, pollution, and human rights abuses, arguing for a 'Feminist Just Transition' to ensure climate justice.

The report examines the impact of geothermal energy development in Indonesia, highlighting a contradiction between its role as a climate solution and the resulting socio-environmental risks. It details how funding from the World Bank and Asian Development Bank (ADB) has accelerated projects that lead to water depletion, pollution, and the displacement of local livelihoods. The document documents specific cases of environmental degradation, such as mudflows and gas leaks, as well as the criminalization of dissent and the marginalization of women and Indigenous peoples. It concludes that the current financial model transfers risk to local communities and calls for a transition based on equity, justice, and the explicit consent of affected populations.

The report inventories 130 support measures across six energy types in Indonesia: oil and gas, coal, electricity, renewable energy, biofuels, and electric vehicles (EVs). It details various mechanisms including direct financial transfers, tax exemptions, and price regulations. For the period FY 2021 to FY 2024, 27% of these measures were quantified using official government data, while 64% remained unquantified due to data limitations. The annex provides specific legislative references and nominal values in IDR and USD for each measure.

The report examines the diverse strategies employed by three major ASEAN economies—Viet Nam, the Philippines, and Indonesia—to unlock clean energy investments. Viet Nam is focusing on gradual liberalisation and corporate power purchase agreements (DPPA) to potentially double its renewable energy share. The Philippines is leveraging a long-standing liberalised market, utilizing Green Energy Auctions (GEA) and 100% foreign ownership to attract capital. Indonesia is implementing PPA reforms to manage currency risk and integrating carbon market mechanisms to incentivise developers, with solar identified as the most viable near-term expansion option.

The document examines the alignment of Indonesia's business sector with the 2035 NDC, highlighting a potential investment opportunity of USD 3.8 trillion. While over 100 Indonesian companies have adopted science-based targets, the report identifies significant barriers including regulatory uncertainty, fragmented institutional responsibility, and a lack of a standardized 'green investment' definition. It proposes solutions such as 'power wheeling' for renewable energy access, blended finance mechanisms, and sectoral decarbonization roadmaps for energy, industry, and transport to ensure the NDC is 'investible' and supports the national goal of net-zero by 2060.

Between 2019 and 2023, Indonesia's power sector saw total reported investments of USD 38.02 billion, with fossil fuels (FF) dominating at 62% of the share. The report highlights a significant gap in 'unreported' investment in captive coal-fired power plants (CFPPs), estimated at USD 10.63 billion. While renewable energy (RE) investment reached USD 8.85 billion, it remains concentrated in baseload sources like hydropower and geothermal. Private international financial institutions are the primary drivers of fossil fuel investment, whereas RE is increasingly supported by domestic private sources. Analysis of PLN reveals that coal plants account for 46% of annual operating costs, and PLN-owned solar plants suffer from severe inefficiency with a capacity factor of only 4% compared to a 16% benchmark.

The report argues that standard top-down cost estimation methods for energy transitions often overlook socio-spatial factors and marginalized groups. It proposes a new framework that identifies specific losses (recognitional justice), determines preventative and transformative spending (restorative justice), assigns cost burdens (distributive justice), and ensures stakeholder consensus (procedural justice). Using the planned early retirement of the Cirebon 1 coal-fired power plant as a case study, the report demonstrates how to map direct, indirect, and induced impacts across individuals, companies, and governments to more accurately calculate the financial requirements of a just transition.

The report details the EECCLiRe project's efforts to build climate resilience among Indonesian coffee smallholders through ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA). Key interventions included the use of climate field schools (CFS) to integrate scientific climate data with traditional knowledge, the promotion of agroforestry to protect heat-sensitive Arabica coffee, and the installation of plastic biodigesters to provide clean energy and organic fertilizer. The document also examines the role of ecolabels and geographical indication (GI) labels in supporting EbA by providing financial incentives, while noting challenges such as power imbalances with intermediaries and the need for context-specific, gender-responsive programming.

The report examines Indonesia's energy transition through a lens of national interest, highlighting a significant gap between the high investment needs for Net Zero Emissions (NZE) and the limited availability of domestic and international funding. It argues that foreign climate finance often arrives as debt rather than grants, potentially exacerbating Indonesia's chronic fiscal deficits and public debt. The document analyzes the capacity of the Indonesian banking sector to fund renewable energy projects, finding that while capital adequacy is generally high, systemic bottlenecks in foreign exchange liquidity and long-term stable funding persist. It also evaluates the nascent Indonesian carbon market, noting a lack of clear emission caps (PTBAE) and low carbon prices. The authors propose 'The Indonesian Way,' a strategy focusing on eight action paths, including the dekarbonization of transport and electricity, targeted subsidies, and the development of a domestic green manufacturing ecosystem to reduce technological dependency.

Indonesia aims to deploy 2 million electric cars and 12 million electric two-wheelers by 2030 to reduce carbon emissions and leverage its nickel reserves for battery production. To achieve this, the government implemented a VAT reduction (from 11% to 1%) for EVs meeting a 40% local content requirement and a 0% import duty for foreign manufacturers who commit to building domestic factories by 2026. While these policies have increased EV sales—with BYD alone accounting for half of total EV sales following the import policy—they have created market imbalances. Established players like Hyundai, which invested in charging infrastructure and local battery production, have seen sales drop and have responded by restricting public charging stations to their own vehicles. The document warns that conflicting incentives and low local content thresholds may lead to a temporary boom of imported vehicles rather than a robust domestic ecosystem.

The report examines the socio-ecological impacts of energy plantation forests (HTE) in Java, specifically in Sukabumi, Grobogan, and Bojonegoro. It argues that Perhutani uses the narrative of 'critical land' and 'energy transition' to reclaim land from local farmers, effectively continuing a history of agrarian extraction. The study finds that the introduction of biomass crops like gamal and kaliandra restricts community access to food and fuel, transforms these species into 'flex trees' for industrial profit, and employs local labor under precarious, low-wage conditions. The document concludes that these projects often fail economically while exacerbating land conflicts and environmental degradation, recommending a shift toward genuine forestry land reform.

The paper argues that biomass energy projects, framed as climate change mitigation, serve as a mechanism for 'energy grabbing' and the reconcentration of land control by Perhutani. Through case studies in Sukabumi, Grobogan, and Bojonegoro, it demonstrates how the classification of land as 'unproductive' or 'critical' is used to dispossess local farmers and transform them into low-paid laborers. The study finds that the promotion of gamal and kaliandra as 'flex trees' restricts community access to essential resources like firewood and fodder, while triggering localized resistance and criminalization of farmers.

Indonesia's electricity sector remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, with coal contributing 62% of generation in 2023. The report highlights a risk of stranded assets if new coal plants are built, as improving existing plant efficiency could lead to a 42 TWh surplus by 2030. It advocates for the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) targets, which aim for a 44% renewable share by 2030. Specifically, the report argues for shifting renewable investments toward coal-producing provinces like East Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, and South Sumatra to mitigate job losses and economic decline, estimating that expanding solar projects in these areas could create 96,000 high-skilled jobs and attract $9.4 billion USD in investment.

The report examines Indonesia's energy transition, highlighting the risk of stranded assets due to coal overcapacity and the potential for renewable energy to revitalize coal-dependent provinces. It compares the RUPTL 2021-2030 and JETP frameworks, suggesting that replacing planned coal capacity with solar power in regions like East Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, and South Sumatra could create 96,000 high-skilled jobs and attract $9.4 billion in investment.

The report argues that Indonesia's biomass co-firing program primarily benefits large conglomerates and politically connected elites rather than promoting a just energy transition. It highlights how companies affiliated with groups like Sinarmas, Korindo, and Medco dominate energy plantation forest (HTE) concessions, often through opaque ownership structures or 'shadow companies'. The document details instances of deforestation, land conflicts with indigenous peoples (notably in Papua and NTB), and the persistence of 'carbon debts' resulting from the conversion of natural forests to HTE. Furthermore, it notes that some biomass suppliers are also coal traders, and that the actual biomass used in PLTUs often consists of unregulated sawdust rather than the planned wood pellets, undermining the program's environmental claims.

The report alleges that the Asian Development Bank (ADB) provided a $600 million loan to Indonesia's state-run utility, Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), which lacks a 'no-coal' clause and may be used to fund coal expansion, including the Java 9 & 10 project. This contradicts ADB's public climate pledges and its October 2021 Energy Policy. The report highlights the severe health and environmental impacts of coal in Banten Province, where the Suralaya Power Station operates, and criticizes the lack of financial transparency as loan proceeds are mixed into PLN's general account.

The report identifies financial barriers as the most severe challenge to green building implementation in Indonesia, citing a lack of dedicated financing instruments and high interest rates. While national regulations like GR 16/2021 have introduced green building standards, they are limited to very large buildings and exclude the residential sector, which accounts for 83% of building energy demand. A case study in Semarang demonstrates that combining building material retrofits with high-efficiency air conditioning can reduce cooling energy use by 32% to 44%, potentially saving USD 3.19 million annually. However, meeting green building mandates in Semarang over the next decade is estimated to require USD 223.7 million in investment.