Siapa Bayar Apa untuk Transisi Hijau?

The report examines Indonesia's energy transition through a lens of national interest, highlighting a significant gap between the high investment needs for Net Zero Emissions (NZE) and the limited availability of domestic and international funding. It argues that foreign climate finance often arrives as debt rather than grants, potentially exacerbating Indonesia's chronic fiscal deficits and public debt. The document analyzes the capacity of the Indonesian banking sector to fund renewable energy projects, finding that while capital adequacy is generally high, systemic bottlenecks in foreign exchange liquidity and long-term stable funding persist. It also evaluates the nascent Indonesian carbon market, noting a lack of clear emission caps (PTBAE) and low carbon prices. The authors propose 'The Indonesian Way,' a strategy focusing on eight action paths, including the dekarbonization of transport and electricity, targeted subsidies, and the development of a domestic green manufacturing ecosystem to reduce technological dependency.

• Indonesia's energy transition investment needs are vast and vary significantly by scenario; a median estimate based on the IRENA 1.5-S scenario suggests a requirement of US$73-76 billion per year until 2050.
• There is a critical mismatch between the funding required for the transition and Indonesia's fiscal capacity, with the annual investment needed for the NDC target until 2030 estimated at US$50 billion, which is roughly 3.6% of the 2024 GDP—comparable to the country's estimated twin deficit.
• International climate finance for Indonesia is predominantly composed of loans rather than grants, leading to perceptions that the climate narrative is a 'debt narrative' disguised as global benefit. For example, in the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP), approximately Rp 156 trillion was offered as debt compared to only Rp 5 trillion in grants by late 2023.
• The Indonesian banking sector, specifically the 17 largest banks in KBMI 3 and 4 categories, has the capital adequacy to support renewable energy projects, but faces 'bottlenecks' in foreign exchange (Net Open Position) and long-term stable funding (Net Stable Funding Ratio) if the most ambitious investment scenarios are pursued.
• The Indonesian carbon market is currently underdeveloped, characterized by low prices (approximately Rp 60,000 per ton in the IDX Carbon exchange) and a lack of national emission caps (PTBAE), which limits the incentive for companies to reduce emissions.
• Indonesia's energy transition is hindered by 'sectoral anxiety' and a conservative consumer mindset that prefers 'greener but cheaper' options, as well as the influence of political and economic interests tied to the fossil fuel industry.
• There is a significant regional disparity in energy access; as of March 2023, 441,000 households outside Java-Bali lacked electricity compared to only 15,000 in Java-Bali, representing a disparity of nearly 97%.
• The manufacturing sector remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, with coal accounting for nearly 50% of its energy consumption as of 2020, while renewable energy contributes only about 5%.
• Indonesia possesses significant 'blue carbon' potential through mangroves and seagrasses, which can store carbon 4-8 times more effectively than tropical rainforests, yet these are not yet fully integrated into the official NDC or LTS-LCCR targets.
• The report proposes 'The Indonesian Way' consisting of eight action paths: increasing public awareness, cross-sectoral emission limits, transport decarbonization, targeted subsidies, domestic gas infrastructure revitalization, carbon sector development, electricity/industry decarbonization, and future energy (hydrogen/nuclear) development.

APA

Siagian, A. P., & Panggabean, A. T. (2025). Siapa Bayar Apa untuk Transisi Hijau? Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Siapa-Bayar-Apa-Untuk-Transisi-Hijau_Final.pdf

Chicago

Siagian, Albertus P., and Adrian T.P. Panggabean. Siapa Bayar Apa untuk Transisi Hijau? Climate Policy Initiative, 2025. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Siapa-Bayar-Apa-Untuk-Transisi-Hijau_Final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Siagian |first1=Albertus P. |last2=Panggabean |first2=Adrian T.P. |title=Siapa Bayar Apa untuk Transisi Hijau? |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=April 2025 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Siapa-Bayar-Apa-Untuk-Transisi-Hijau_Final.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{siagian2025siapa, author = {Siagian, Albertus P. and Panggabean, Adrian T.P.}, title = {{Siapa Bayar Apa untuk Transisi Hijau?}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2025}, month = apr, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Siapa-Bayar-Apa-Untuk-Transisi-Hijau_Final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }