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The briefing examines the paradigm of humanitarian intervention and the 'responsibility to protect' (R2P) in post-cold war Africa. The author contends that these interventions often fail to address deep-seated inequalities and may inadvertently prolong conflicts by creating truces that allow weaker parties to rearm. The text suggests that non-intervention—allowing a conflict to reach a military conclusion—or targeted political and credible protection missions may be more effective alternatives for achieving durable peace.

The document provides a list of 121 countries ranked by the Global Peace Index, which was compiled by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) using nearly 3,000 data points and 4,000 points relating to the drivers of peace. Norway is ranked first, while Iraq is ranked 121st.

This report summarizes a seminar held on October 17, 2008, at the United Nations Conference Center regarding the implications of the 2008 US Presidential Election for Africa. The event featured presentations by Dr. Steven Erkovich and Dr. Joseph Vincent Ebode, who analyzed US foreign policy motivations, the specific propositions of candidates Barack Obama and John McCain, and the strategic rationale behind Obama's candidacy.

The document serves as a comprehensive guide for the International Institute for Justice and the Rule of Law to develop its training curricula. It emphasizes the critical role of policymakers and senior officials in driving institutional change and provides a step-by-step methodology for capacity building, including needs assessments and participant selection. Additionally, it advocates for the use of immersive, simulation-based training to recreate the complexity of real-life criminal justice incidents, specifically in the context of counterterrorism.

The study finds that while population density is a strong and consistent predictor of armed conflict, the effects of land degradation and water scarcity are relatively weak or insignificant. Political and economic factors, particularly GDP and political instability, far outweigh local environmental stressors in determining conflict risk. Interestingly, the authors find that resource scarcity may matter less for conflict in low-income states than in wealthier states, challenging some neo-Malthusian assumptions.

The research paper develops a formal model and provides empirical analysis to argue that third-party military intervention in civil wars is driven by economic factors. The authors find that the likelihood of intervention increases when the conflict state has large oil reserves, when the global oil market is more oligopolistic (less competitive), and when the potential intervener is a net oil importer. Using a dyadic dataset from 1945-1999, the study demonstrates that the value of oil reserves and the intervener's balance of trade in oil are significant predictors of intervention, often exerting a larger impact than traditional factors like ethnic ties or Cold War dynamics.

The document analyzes the illicit arms trade, categorizing it into semi-legal, state-sanctioned, and wholly illicit flows. It argues against the 'amorphous image' of easy global access to weapons, asserting instead that supply and demand are geographically and temporally variable. The authors detail how weapons are diverted from legal stocks, the role of illicit pricing as an indicator of supply constraints, and the multi-level governance structures—societal, national, and international—used to counter trafficking. It also evaluates international instruments like the Arms Trade Treaty and the UN Programme of Action, noting the challenges posed by state complicity and capacity gaps in developing nations.

The research paper examines the 'triangular drama' between Israel, Transjordan, and the UN during the 1949 armistice negotiations. It argues that while official talks occurred at Rhodes under UN Acting Mediator Ralph Bunche, the substantive agreements were reached through secret bilateral channels in Jerusalem and Shuneh. Israel exploited a significant power asymmetry, using military 'facts on the ground' (such as Operation Uvda) and direct blackmail regarding Iraqi troop withdrawals to coerce Transjordan into conceding strategic territory. The author contends that Ralph Bunche, acting as a 'weak mediator' without the support of Great Powers, allowed these secret talks to proceed to expedite the mission, ultimately granting international legitimacy to a treaty negotiated through coercion. The document concludes that the lack of a strong third party to counterbalance Israel's power established a precedent of unsustainable peace in the region.

The report details a conference in Brussels where representatives of Greek Cypriots (GCs) and Turkish Cypriots (TCs) discussed the legal, normative, and economic challenges of property restitution and compensation. Key tensions include the GCs' emphasis on the right of the legal owner to choose the remedy and the TCs' focus on the rights of current users and the principle of bizonality. The proceedings explore the role of the Immovable Property Commission (IPC), the impact of European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) rulings, and the financial impossibility of full market-value compensation, suggesting alternative market-based exchange mechanisms and the need for social reconciliation.

The research employs a lobby group model and cross-country data from 104 countries to analyze the drivers of environmental policy stringency. The authors find that a higher number of environmental lobby groups generally leads to stricter policies. Crucially, the study identifies an interaction effect where political competition increases policy stringency primarily in countries with high levels of democratic participation, whereas participation alone has no effect in pure dictatorships. The results suggest that supporting local environmental NGOs in developing countries may be an effective channel for international donors to improve global environmental quality.

The research argues that transnational ethnic ties increase the risk of civil war, but this effect is conditional on the domestic demographic size of the marginalized group. Using a triadic model and geocoded data, the authors find that larger excluded groups with kin in neighboring states are significantly more likely to engage in conflict than those without such ties, while the governmental status of the external kin group does not have a statistically significant impact.

The research examines the determinants of external state support for rebel groups using a new dataset of 403 organizations. It argues that support is not merely a function of the civil war's general characteristics but depends on the specific attributes of the rebel group and the international relations of the target state. The findings indicate that moderately strong groups with transnational constituencies are most likely to receive aid, particularly when the target state is involved in an international rivalry or receives its own external support. Conversely, very strong or very weak groups, and those in democratic states, are less likely to be supported.

The research examines nine donor-supported active citizenship programs implemented between 2010 and 2015 in Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, and Tunisia. The authors argue that these programs, primarily funded by the US and Europe, employ a 'neo-liberalization of citizenship' approach that emphasizes formal participation and technical skill-building over political dissent and social mobilization. Through interviews with approximately 250 activists, the study finds a significant gap between the normative, Western-inspired training modules and the actual political constraints in the MENA region, such as secretive decision-making, unreliable judicial systems, and the dominance of informal power networks. The paper concludes that these programs risk bolstering the legitimacy of non-democratic regimes by encouraging tokenistic engagement and disconnecting activists from their local communities.

The research demonstrates that states experiencing civil wars are significantly more likely to be involved in militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). Using data from 1946 to 2001, the authors find that this 'civil peace' effect is comparable in magnitude to the 'democratic peace' effect. Analysis of over 400 MIDs reveals that the increased risk is driven by states attempting to influence the outcome of civil wars through direct intervention, externalization (such as cross-border counter-insurgency), and unintended spillovers, rather than by opportunistic attacks on weakened states or diversionary wars to consolidate domestic power.

The authors argue that traditional dyadic analysis of international conflict often ignores spatial dependence, where the risk of conflict in one pair of states is influenced by the status of other linked pairs. They introduce new measures for 'third-party' and 'fourth-party' alliance ties, as well as a theory of geographic 'inbetweenness,' to demonstrate that dyads linked to ongoing disputes through these pathways are significantly more likely to experience conflict onset. Using data from 1950-1992, the study finds that these extra-dyadic factors provide a substantially better fit for predicting conflict than purely dyadic models.

The research analyzes the relationship between state repression of 'empowerment rights' (social, political, and economic liberties) and ethnic fractionalization in predicting civil war onset. Using data from 143 states, the study finds that state repression does not have a direct effect on war onset. However, it discovers a significant conditional effect: in ethnically fractionalized societies, higher levels of state repression actually reduce the probability of civil war, whereas in homogeneous societies, repression increases the risk. These findings challenge 'grievance-based' theories of ethnic conflict, suggesting instead that the opportunity to mobilize—which is constrained by repression—is the primary driver of rebellion in diverse societies.

The document analyzes Norway's involvement in Afghanistan, noting that while the initial 2001 justification was based on the NATO Article 5 security guarantee, the official rationale shifted over a decade toward preventing terrorism and promoting international solidarity. Norway's approach was characterized by a strict separation of military and civilian efforts, exemplified by the 'Norwegian Model' in the Faryab Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT), where military commanders had no authority over aid allocation. Despite this, the engagement strained military resources and faced domestic skepticism, with some of the public believing participation increased the risk of terror attacks. The paper concludes that alliance dependence remained the primary driver of the engagement, even as the government rhetorically emphasized peacebuilding and state-building.

The document examines the complex geopolitical landscape of the Middle East through a series of expert perspectives. Key themes include the failure of Western 'exceptionalism' in diplomacy, the systemic human rights abuses in countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and the critical role of water scarcity as a driver of intra-state conflict. It provides detailed analysis of the 'bottom-up' stabilization efforts in Iraq via local ceasefires, the strategic threat of Iranian nuclear proliferation, and the use of public diplomacy by non-state actors like Hizbollah. Additionally, it addresses the stalled peace process between Israel and Palestine and the specific challenges of the Cyprus division.

The Strategies of Resistance Data Project (SRDP) provides a global dataset of 1,124 organizations involved in self-determination disputes between 1960 and 2005. Unlike previous datasets that focus on mass campaigns or violent actors, SRDP uses the organization as the unit of analysis to track tactical shifts. Findings indicate that nonviolent tactics are more common than violence in these movements, and organizations are more likely to switch from violence to nonviolence than vice versa.

The document argues that treating nonstate actors as unitary entities in civil conflict analysis creates a gap between conceptual frames and empirical reality. It proposes a 'disaggregation' approach to examine how internal divisions, factionalism, and shifting coalitions influence the initiation, escalation, and termination of violence. The authors highlight that fragmentation can either increase violence through in-group competition or facilitate peace through state co-optation of specific factions. The text calls for more disaggregated data to better understand the dynamics of nonstate actors, including the role of external state intervention in precipitating or exacerbating internal splits.