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Digital Transformation Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development
The document examines the 'twin transition' of digital and green transformations, highlighting how digital technologies can both enable climate action and contribute significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions. It identifies critical gaps in infrastructure and financing for developing countries and proposes five priority decarbonization levers: green infrastructure, energy-efficient operations, sustainable supply chains, circular economy models, and climate-compatible infrastructure. The authors argue for coordinated international cooperation, targeted financial incentives, and the integration of environmental provisions into digital trade agreements to ensure an inclusive transition to net zero.
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Document type: Briefing
Researching Climate Obstruction in Authoritarian and non-Democratic Contexts
The document outlines the challenges of researching climate obstruction in restrictive political environments, focusing on participant safety, data security, and the navigation of political 'red lines'. It recommends flexible research designs, such as using snowball sampling and reframing sensitive topics, to mitigate risks associated with government surveillance and data manipulation in non-democratic states.
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Document type: Briefing
In 12 months the renewables market has moved but governments have not
National renewable energy targets for 2030 currently aim for a collective doubling of capacity rather than the tripling agreed upon at COP28, despite market forecasts suggesting such a goal is achievable, particularly for solar and battery storage.
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Document type: Report
Paris Misaligned: An Assessment of Global Power Sector Investment
The report finds that while renewable energy investment is growing, continued funding for fossil fuel power plants and the presence of 'locked-in' emissions from existing assets keep the global power sector on a temperature trajectory exceeding 3.2°C. It highlights a significant gap between actual 2018 investment carbon intensities and the negative thresholds required by 2030 to achieve Paris alignment. The analysis identifies specific misalignments among major economies like China, India, and Japan, and among financial actors such as commercial banks and export credit agencies. The document recommends halting new carbon-intensive investments, accelerating the retirement of existing fossil fuel plants, and harmonizing climate risk reporting.
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Document type: Report
Ethno-Nationalist Triads: Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars
The research argues that transnational ethnic ties increase the risk of civil war, but this effect is conditional on the domestic demographic size of the marginalized group. Using a triadic model and geocoded data, the authors find that larger excluded groups with kin in neighboring states are significantly more likely to engage in conflict than those without such ties, while the governmental status of the external kin group does not have a statistically significant impact.
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Document type: Research paper