Ethno-Nationalist Triads: Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars

The research argues that transnational ethnic ties increase the risk of civil war, but this effect is conditional on the domestic demographic size of the marginalized group. Using a triadic model and geocoded data, the authors find that larger excluded groups with kin in neighboring states are significantly more likely to engage in conflict than those without such ties, while the governmental status of the external kin group does not have a statistically significant impact.

• The probability of ethno-nationalist civil war increases when marginalized ethnic groups are larger in relative demographic size, are located further from the state capital, or reside in mountainous terrain.
• Transnational ethnic ties do not unconditionally increase the risk of conflict; rather, their influence is conditional on the domestic power balance of the marginalized group.
• The presence of transnational kin in neighboring states significantly improves the predictive accuracy of conflict onset models compared to models relying solely on domestic variables.
• There is no statistically significant evidence that the risk of conflict is higher when the external kin group is in power (governmental) as opposed to being a marginalized group themselves.
• The risk of conflict is specifically heightened for groups with kin in neighboring states (within 500 km), as geographical proximity facilitates resource mobilization and provides tactical advantages like extra-territorial bases.
• The study's findings are consistent across both static analysis (1945-2005) and dynamic annual panel data, confirming that the interactive effect between demographic size and transnational ties is robust.

APA

Cederman, L.-E., Girardin, L., & Gleditsch, K. S. (n.d.). Ethno-Nationalist Triads: Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/2f014d34-342d-4028-b156-0aa74d757cbd/Ethno-Nationalist Triads Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Cederman, Lars-Erik, Luc Girardin, and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch. Ethno-Nationalist Triads: Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/2f014d34-342d-4028-b156-0aa74d757cbd/Ethno-Nationalist Triads Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Cederman |first1=Lars-Erik |last2=Girardin |first2=Luc |last3=Gleditsch |first3=Kristian Skrede |title=Ethno-Nationalist Triads: Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/2f014d34-342d-4028-b156-0aa74d757cbd/Ethno-Nationalist Triads Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars.pdf?inline=true |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{cedermanndethnonationalist, author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Girardin, Luc and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede}, title = {{Ethno-Nationalist Triads: Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/2f014d34-342d-4028-b156-0aa74d757cbd/Ethno-Nationalist Triads Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }