In 12 months the renewables market has moved but governments have not

This report by Ember analyzes the gap between national renewable energy targets and the global goal to triple renewable capacity by 2030, as agreed upon at COP28. It finds that while market forecasts for solar and battery storage are surging, government targets have remained largely stagnant, collectively aiming only for a doubling of capacity rather than a tripling.

• National renewable energy targets for 2030 are significantly lower than the global goal of tripling capacity to at least 11,000 GW. The collective sum of targets from 96 countries and one region is 7,242 GW, which represents a doubling of 2022 capacity (3,379 GW) and leaves a gap of 3,758 GW.
• There is a major disconnect between solar market forecasts and government targets. While BNEF projects solar capacity will reach 6,640 GW by 2030, the sum of national targets is only 3,011 GW. In 31 of 55 analyzed countries, projected solar additions already exceed their current 2030 targets.
• Wind energy targets and market forecasts are aligned but both fall short of the tripling goal. National targets suggest 2,157 GW by 2030, leaving a 585 GW gap to reach the 2,742 GW target. China is expected to drive the majority of growth, installing over 50% of global wind additions between 2024 and 2030.
• Energy storage targets are severely lacking. Only 30 of the 96 assessed countries have national storage targets, totaling 284 GW. This is far below the 1,500 GW target called for by the G7 and COP presidency, and also below the BNEF market forecast of 776 GW for battery storage in 2030.
• Regional analysis shows that all regions are falling short of the ambition needed for a global tripling. The Middle East and North Africa (MENA), Sub-Saharan Africa, and Eurasia have the largest relative shortfalls. Asia and OECD countries have the largest absolute shortfalls, together responsible for 80% of required capacity additions.
• Government responsiveness to market trends has been minimal; only eight countries updated their renewable targets in the 12 months following COP28, and all were within the EU as part of the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) process.

APA

Altieri, K., Zaimoglu, O., Jones, D., Alparslan, U., Black, R., Brown, S., Harrison, T., Hawkins, S., Bruce-Lockhart, C., Lolla, A., Mishra, R., Nadhila, S., Shah, R., Thiru, J. Z., & Rahmani, A. A. (2024). In 12 months the renewables market has moved but governments have not. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/renewables-market-have-moved-but-governments-have-not

Chicago

Altieri, Katye, Oya Zaimoglu, Dave Jones, Ufuk Alparslan, Richard Black, Sarah Brown, Tom Harrison, et al. In 12 months the renewables market has moved but governments have not. Ember, 2024. https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/renewables-market-have-moved-but-governments-have-not.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Altieri |first1=Katye |last2=Zaimoglu |first2=Oya |last3=Jones |first3=Dave |last4=Alparslan |first4=Ufuk |last5=Black |first5=Richard |last6=Brown |first6=Sarah |last7=Harrison |first7=Tom |last8=Hawkins |first8=Sam |last9=Bruce-Lockhart |first9=Chelsea |display-authors=etal |title=In 12 months the renewables market has moved but governments have not |publisher=Ember |date=12 November 2024 |url=https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/renewables-market-have-moved-but-governments-have-not |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{altieri2024months, author = {Altieri, Katye and Zaimoglu, Oya and Jones, Dave and Alparslan, Ufuk and Black, Richard and Brown, Sarah and Harrison, Tom and Hawkins, Sam and Bruce-Lockhart, Chelsea and Lolla, Aditya and Mishra, Rashmi and Nadhila, Shabrina and Shah, Ruchita and Thiru, Jivan Zhen and Rahmani, Ardhi Arsala}, title = {{In 12 months the renewables market has moved but governments have not}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2024}, month = nov, url = {https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/renewables-market-have-moved-but-governments-have-not}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }