Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict

The study finds that while population density is a strong and consistent predictor of armed conflict, the effects of land degradation and water scarcity are relatively weak or insignificant. Political and economic factors, particularly GDP and political instability, far outweigh local environmental stressors in determining conflict risk. Interestingly, the authors find that resource scarcity may matter less for conflict in low-income states than in wealthier states, challenging some neo-Malthusian assumptions.

• Population density is the strongest and most consistent demographic or environmental predictor of armed conflict across all models. High population density is associated with increased risk, potentially because populous areas facilitate rebel recruitment, provide taxation bases, and serve as strategic targets.
• The impact of land degradation and water scarcity on conflict risk is relatively small. In the global model, medium to high land degradation increases conflict risk from a 1% baseline to between 2-4%, while very high water scarcity increases it to approximately 6%.
• Economic and political factors are more powerful predictors of conflict than local environmental stressors. Low GDP and political instability—specifically movements toward autocratic governance—significantly increase the risk of armed conflict.
• Contrary to expectations that poor states would be more vulnerable to environmental stress, resource scarcity appears to have a more significant statistical relationship with conflict in high-income samples than in low-income samples, though these results are highly sensitive to specific countries like Russia, Iraq, Serbia, and Mexico.
• The interaction between population growth and certain environmental factors can increase risk, specifically regarding water scarcity and population density, although these extreme combinations are rare in the dataset.
• The study finds little evidence for the 'state failure hypothesis'—the idea that environmental stress weakens state institutions to create opportunities for rebellion—as political and economic control variables did not capture the variance explained by environmental factors.

APA

Raleigh, C., & Urdal, H. (n.d.). Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5017158e-9d4b-466f-aa13-a0ead11846bf/Climate Change Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Raleigh, Clionadh, and Henrik Urdal. Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5017158e-9d4b-466f-aa13-a0ead11846bf/Climate Change Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Raleigh |first1=Clionadh |last2=Urdal |first2=Henrik |title=Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5017158e-9d4b-466f-aa13-a0ead11846bf/Climate Change Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict.pdf?inline=true |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{raleighndclimate, author = {Raleigh, Clionadh and Urdal, Henrik}, title = {{Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5017158e-9d4b-466f-aa13-a0ead11846bf/Climate Change Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }