Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict

This research paper examines the relationship between local-level environmental degradation, demographic pressures, and internal armed conflict from 1990 to 2004. Using a geospatial grid analysis of 100km x 100km squares globally, the authors find that while population density is a strong predictor of conflict, the effects of land degradation and water scarcity are relatively weak and often secondary to political and economic factors such as GDP and regime stability.

• Population density is the most consistent and strongest demographic/environmental predictor of armed conflict across all models. This is likely because densely populated areas provide better opportunities for rebel organization, financing, and strategic targeting.
• Economic and political factors exert a far greater influence on the risk of conflict than local environmental stressors. Specifically, low GDP and political instability (such as movements toward autocracy) are primary drivers of internal armed conflict.
• Land degradation and water scarcity have a positive but moderate relationship with conflict risk. In the global model, medium to high land degradation increases risk from a 1% baseline to 2-4%, while very high water scarcity increases it to approximately 6%.
• The interaction between population growth and certain environmental stressors can increase conflict risk, though these occurrences are rare. A significant interaction was found between population growth and water scarcity, as well as between population growth and population density.
• Contrary to the 'state weakness' hypothesis, resource scarcity appears to have a weaker relationship with conflict in low-income states than in wealthier states. In low-income samples, land degradation variables were often statistically insignificant.
• The study suggests that the observed relationships between resource scarcity and conflict may be better explained by the 'state exploitation' hypothesis—where regimes mobilize ethnic groups to capture scarce resources—rather than the 'state failure' hypothesis, as political instability did not significantly interact with environmental factors to increase risk.

APA

Raleigh, C., & Urdal, H. (n.d.). Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5017158e-9d4b-466f-aa13-a0ead11846bf/Climate Change Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Raleigh, Clionadh, and Henrik Urdal. Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5017158e-9d4b-466f-aa13-a0ead11846bf/Climate Change Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Raleigh |first1=Clionadh |last2=Urdal |first2=Henrik |title=Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5017158e-9d4b-466f-aa13-a0ead11846bf/Climate Change Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict.pdf?inline=true |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{raleighndclimate, author = {Raleigh, Clionadh and Urdal, Henrik}, title = {{Climate Change, Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/5017158e-9d4b-466f-aa13-a0ead11846bf/Climate Change Environmental Degradation and Armed Conflict.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }