“Oil Above Water”: Economic Interdependence and Third Party Intervention

The research paper develops a formal model and provides empirical analysis to argue that third-party military intervention in civil wars is driven by economic factors. The authors find that the likelihood of intervention increases when the conflict state has large oil reserves, when the global oil market is more oligopolistic (less competitive), and when the potential intervener is a net oil importer. Using a dyadic dataset from 1945-1999, the study demonstrates that the value of oil reserves and the intervener's balance of trade in oil are significant predictors of intervention, often exerting a larger impact than traditional factors like ethnic ties or Cold War dynamics.

• Third-party military intervention is more likely when the country experiencing a civil war possesses larger oil endowments, as disruptions in highly endowed countries cause greater international price increases.
• Intervention is more probable when the global oil market is more oligopolistic, meaning lower levels of competition increase the importance of stabilizing a region to prevent market shocks.
• Countries that are net importers of oil have a higher likelihood of intervening in oil-producing countries embroiled in civil war compared to net exporters.
• Bilateral trade interdependence increases the likelihood of intervention; specifically, a third party is more likely to intervene if it depends on oil imports from the conflict state.
• For oil-exporting countries, an increase in international demand for oil actually decreases the likelihood of them intervening in another oil-producing country's civil war because the resulting higher profits outweigh the costs of higher oil prices for their own consumers.

APA

Bove, V., Gleditsch, K. S., & Sekeris, P. G. (n.d.). “Oil Above Water”: Economic Interdependence and Third Party Intervention. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/bd8821d4-f8cc-49f7-aa15-90db46e52cb6/Oil above Water Economic Interdependence and Third-Party Intervention.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Bove, Vincenzo, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, and Petros G. Sekeris. “Oil Above Water”: Economic Interdependence and Third Party Intervention. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/bd8821d4-f8cc-49f7-aa15-90db46e52cb6/Oil above Water Economic Interdependence and Third-Party Intervention.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bove |first1=Vincenzo |last2=Gleditsch |first2=Kristian Skrede |last3=Sekeris |first3=Petros G. |title=“Oil Above Water”: Economic Interdependence and Third Party Intervention |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/bd8821d4-f8cc-49f7-aa15-90db46e52cb6/Oil above Water Economic Interdependence and Third-Party Intervention.pdf?inline=true |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bovendoil, author = {Bove, Vincenzo and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Sekeris, Petros G.}, title = {{“Oil Above Water”: Economic Interdependence and Third Party Intervention}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/bd8821d4-f8cc-49f7-aa15-90db46e52cb6/Oil above Water Economic Interdependence and Third-Party Intervention.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }