“Oil Above Water”: Economic Interdependence and Third Party Intervention

This research paper examines how economic incentives, specifically related to oil, motivate third parties to intervene militarily in internal wars. The authors develop a formal three-party model and test it against a dyadic dataset of conflict states and potential interveners from 1945 to 1999, finding that both the oil wealth of the conflict state and the oil dependence of the potential intervener significantly increase the likelihood of intervention.

• The likelihood of third-party military intervention increases as the oil endowments of the country experiencing a civil war increase, because disruptions in highly endowed countries cause larger increases in international oil prices.
• Third-party intervention is more likely when the oil market is more oligopolistic (less competitive), as the gap in prices between intervention and non-intervention is wider when competition is low.
• Countries with higher oil imports are more likely to intervene militarily in oil-producing countries embroiled in civil war to avoid economic drag from oil shocks.
• Conversely, as the oil exports of symmetric oil producers increase, the likelihood that any of them will intervene in another oil-producing country's civil war decreases, as they benefit from the higher profits associated with increased international demand.
• Bilateral trade ties increase the probability of intervention; specifically, a third party is more likely to intervene if it depends on oil imports from the conflict state.
• Empirical analysis of data from 1945-1999 shows that the value of oil reserves (quantity multiplied by price) is a significant positive predictor of intervention, reflecting the time-varying geoeconomic salience of oil-rich countries.
• The study identifies other significant non-economic drivers of intervention, including the military advantage of the third party over the conflict state, the strength of the opposition forces, the existence of ethnic ties, and geographical proximity.

APA

Bove, V., Gleditsch, K. S., & Sekeris, P. G. (n.d.). “Oil Above Water”: Economic Interdependence and Third Party Intervention. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/bd8821d4-f8cc-49f7-aa15-90db46e52cb6/Oil above Water Economic Interdependence and Third-Party Intervention.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Bove, Vincenzo, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, and Petros G. Sekeris. “Oil Above Water”: Economic Interdependence and Third Party Intervention. Peace Research Institute Oslo, n.d. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/bd8821d4-f8cc-49f7-aa15-90db46e52cb6/Oil above Water Economic Interdependence and Third-Party Intervention.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bove |first1=Vincenzo |last2=Gleditsch |first2=Kristian Skrede |last3=Sekeris |first3=Petros G. |title=“Oil Above Water”: Economic Interdependence and Third Party Intervention |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/bd8821d4-f8cc-49f7-aa15-90db46e52cb6/Oil above Water Economic Interdependence and Third-Party Intervention.pdf?inline=true |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bovendoil, author = {Bove, Vincenzo and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Sekeris, Petros G.}, title = {{“Oil Above Water”: Economic Interdependence and Third Party Intervention}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/bd8821d4-f8cc-49f7-aa15-90db46e52cb6/Oil above Water Economic Interdependence and Third-Party Intervention.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }