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The report argues that fiscal incentives are secondary to 'primary' non-fiscal conditions—such as stable regulatory frameworks, reliable energy and transport infrastructure, and clear national strategies—which are essential for the commercial viability of mineral processing. Using case studies from countries like Indonesia, Australia, and Zambia, it examines tools such as variable royalty rates, investment tax credits, and export restrictions. It warns that without rigorous economic modelling, policies like export bans or tax holidays can lead to significant revenue losses, deterred investment, or the support of commercially unviable projects.

The report argues that non-metallic minerals—such as sand, gravel, and potash—differ from metallic minerals due to lower revenue potential, stronger domestic economic linkages, and a lack of benchmark prices for many varieties. It proposes a typology for royalties and transfer pricing based on a mineral's export propensity, price volatility, and the availability of benchmark prices. Key recommendations include using unit-based royalties for low-value construction materials to minimize administration costs, and ad-valorem royalties for high-value exports like graphite and potash to maximize revenue. The document also addresses cross-cutting issues such as environmental taxation, the formalization of artisanal mining through lower tax burdens, and the risks associated with tax incentives and export restrictions.

The report critiques 'coal transition offsets' (CTOs), specifically those promoted by the Rockefeller Foundation's Coal-to-Clean-Credit Initiative (CCCI) and Singapore's Traction Coalition. It argues that CTOs inherit the systemic failures of the broader carbon offset market, including non-additionality and over-crediting. Through analysis of pilot projects in the Philippines, the document demonstrates how CTOs may not actually accelerate plant closures and can create perverse incentives for policymakers to avoid mandating coal phaseouts. The author recommends shifting focus from individual plant buyouts to systemic energy reforms, such as grid modernization and the renegotiation of power purchase agreements (PPAs) to reduce the financial burden of retiring coal assets.

The G20 has transitioned from a narrow focus on financial stability (2005–2008) to an integrated governance model where energy security, climate action, and sustainable development are central. Key milestones include the 2009 Pittsburgh Summit's first mention of clean energy, the 2015 first Energy Ministers' Meeting, and the recent sequence of Global South presidencies (Indonesia, India, Brazil, South Africa) that have shifted the narrative toward equity, just transitions, and the reform of the international financial architecture. South Africa's 2025 Presidency specifically champions African interconnectivity, critical minerals sovereignty, and debt sustainability to enable a just energy transition.

The document examines the shortcomings of Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs), noting their tendency toward techno-economic framing and donor-driven agendas. It proposes South-South cooperation (SSC) as a vital alternative that leverages shared socio-economic challenges and peer learning to foster more inclusive, justice-centred transitions. Using South Africa and Colombia as case studies, the brief identifies specific opportunities for collaboration in mine closure, green industrialization, and institutional coordination to move beyond one-size-fits-all models.

The document analyzes the first year of the Prabowo-Gibran administration, claiming a return to 'New Order' style governance. It highlights the centralization of economic power through the Danantara sovereign wealth fund, the expansion of the military's role in civilian bureaucracy and national development projects, and a surge in the criminalization of activists and protesters. The report argues that the administration prioritizes extractive industries and the interests of political loyalists and oligarchs over public welfare and democratic principles.

Thailand's economic strategy to become a regional hub for electric vehicles (EVs) and data centres requires a rapid transition to clean energy to attract foreign investment and meet international low-carbon standards. The energy sector, which accounted for 69% of total emissions in 2019, is central to Thailand's goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 30-40% by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Projections indicate that EVs could account for 20% of total electricity demand by 2037, while data centre demand is expected to grow at an 8% CAGR from 2025 to 2027, potentially adding 10 TWh by 2037. To support this, the Thai government has introduced a direct power purchase agreement (DPPA) pilot project specifically for data centres of at least 50 MW, allowing them to bypass the single-buyer system and purchase renewable energy directly.

The report details how the Asian Development Bank, World Bank Group (IFC), and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank have provided direct and indirect financing for the Tangguh LNG project since 2005. It asserts that the project locks Indonesia into fossil gas dependence, causes environmental destruction, displaces Indigenous communities, and increases greenhouse gas emissions. The document concludes by urging MDBs to end all fossil fuel funding and reject the 'gas as a transition fuel' narrative, specifically opposing the proposed expansion into a fourth production facility and a carbon capture utilisation and storage (CCUS) facility.

The report details how the Asian Development Bank, the World Bank Group's IFC, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank have financed Tangguh LNG, Indonesia's largest gas extraction site. It argues that this support locks Indonesia into fossil gas dependence, harms Indigenous communities, and increases greenhouse gas emissions, while calling for MDBs to end all fossil fuel funding.

The report examines the evolution of state governance in the Global South, utilizing World Bank governance indicators and four global scenarios (Growth, Sustainable, Divided, and War) to project potential outcomes. It highlights a critical gap between political participation and institutional performance, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, and warns of the systemic risks posed by rising debt, digital divides, and climate vulnerability. The analysis suggests that future state legitimacy will shift from procedural norms toward tangible performance and hybrid governance models that integrate traditional and non-state authorities.

The report outlines the design of a proposed Country Platform for Nigeria's energy transition, arguing that the framework must be state-owned, politically anchored, and integrated with national development goals rather than being a donor-driven replica of other JETPs. It identifies critical needs for high-level presidential leadership, vertical coordination with oil-producing states, and the resolution of institutional bottlenecks that hinder the disbursement of climate finance. The proposed platform emphasizes a 'people-centred transition' that prioritizes job creation, energy access, and social protection for displaced workers, while strategically navigating global geopolitical pressures such as the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.

The report proposes the Reversing Deforestation Mechanism (RDM), a results-based payment system designed to scale up tropical forest restoration through jurisdictional agreements. Unlike existing frameworks like JREDD+ and TFFF, which focus on halting deforestation and maintaining standing forests, RDM incentivizes net carbon removal by compensating jurisdictions for carbon captured through restoration minus emissions from deforestation and degradation. The report simulates the potential of RDM to transform tropical forests into high-impact climate assets, highlighting its potential to generate significant revenues and carbon sequestration, particularly in the Brazilian Amazon.

This report examines a toolkit of regulatory and economic policy instruments used to curb deforestation and promote forest restoration in tropical regions. It analyzes the effectiveness of command-and-control measures, financial incentives, and the critical role of land tenure security, while highlighting how political cycles and electoral incentives create risks for long-term conservation success.

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative analyzes the scale and diversity of the forest-climate nexus across 91 tropical countries. It quantifies forest extent, carbon stocks, and deforestation rates to argue for differentiated, fit-for-purpose policy strategies rather than a one-size-fits-all approach. The analysis concludes that there is no inherent trade-off between forest conservation and economic development.

The global economy consumes approximately 100 billion metric tons of resources annually, with 75% coming from non-renewable sources. While the European Union leads in circular economy policy, global resource productivity has stalled since 2000, and the world must reduce per capita material consumption from 12.6 metric tons in 2022 to below 5 metric tons by 2050 to ensure sustainability. Significant disparities exist in consumption, with the top 25% of the population using 52% of the world's resources. Despite some progress in municipal waste recycling—averaging 35% across OECD countries—and the regulation of single-use products in 75 countries, systemic changes in product design and corporate monitoring are required to decouple economic growth from resource extraction.

China's massive scale in producing solar, wind, batteries, and electric vehicles has significantly lowered global costs, with solar module prices falling over 70% between 2022 and mid-2025. This manufacturing capacity allows China to potentially supply the entire world's solar needs for 2030 as defined by the IEA. These affordable technologies are facilitating an 'energy leapfrog' in emerging markets across Africa, Asia, and Latin America, where some countries now have higher solar shares in power generation than the US. Consequently, China's own fossil fuel demand is approaching a plateau, and the global demand for fossil fuels is projected to be in structural decline by 2030.

The HSBC India Framework is a Category I-2 sub-project under the Green Guarantee Company (GGC) programme, managed by MUFG Bank, Ltd. It aims to enhance capital deployment for clean energy initiatives in India through GGC guarantees. The framework adopts both HSBC's Environmental and Social Management System (ESMS), based on the Equator Principles, and the GGC ESMS to manage risks. While specific transactions are not yet identified, the framework establishes that the more stringent requirement will apply if differences arise between the two ESMS. The project intends to avoid transactions impacting indigenous peoples' land and livelihoods, though land acquisition under IFC Performance Standard 5 may be triggered.

The statement criticizes the Indonesian government for maintaining a tax system that burdens low-income workers and the poor while providing tax exemptions and high allowances for political officials. It highlights how budget allocations for political promises, such as the 'Makan Bergizi Gratis' program, have led to reduced regional transfers and increased local taxes. The document further links economic inequality to the extractive industry and the climate crisis, urging the government to implement a wealth tax and higher taxes on environmentally destructive companies to fund sustainable development and climate mitigation.

The document examines Nigeria's vulnerability to global energy transitions due to its heavy reliance on oil and gas exports, high production costs, and limited economic diversification. It highlights the risks of reduced government revenue and job losses while identifying opportunities in critical minerals, natural gas as a transition fuel, and non-oil sector growth.

The report analyzes climate finance flows in Southeast Asia, finding a heavy reliance on international capital despite growing domestic interest. It focuses on Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, identifying that while corporates are the primary local investors, institutional and financial institutions remain underutilized due to risk perceptions and loan tenor mismatches. The document argues that blended finance—through guarantees, technical assistance, and project aggregation—can catalyze local investment in nature-based solutions, adaptation, and utility-scale renewables.