Tropical Forest Countries: Challenges and Opportunities (The Forest-Climate Nexus: A Fit-for-Purpose Framework for Climate Impact) - CPI

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative analyzes the scale and diversity of the forest-climate nexus across 91 tropical countries. It quantifies forest extent, carbon stocks, and deforestation rates to argue for differentiated, fit-for-purpose policy strategies rather than a one-size-fits-all approach. The analysis concludes that there is no inherent trade-off between forest conservation and economic development.

• Tropical forests cover approximately 1.27 billion hectares globally, storing an estimated 593 GtCO2, which represents roughly one-third of all historical global emissions.
• Between 2001 and 2023, approximately 180 million hectares of forest were lost, representing nearly 10% of the Tropical & Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forests ecoregion. Recent average annual deforestation has exceeded 10 million hectares.
• Restoring areas deforested between 2001 and 2023 has a global carbon sequestration potential of 49 GtCO2. This is significant given the UNEP Emissions Gap Report's 2024 carbon budget of approximately 900 GtCO2e to limit warming to 2°C, and 200 GtCO2e for the 1.5°C target.
• Using k-means clustering, the report classifies tropical forest countries into three groups: (1) high forest cover, low deforestation, and low carbon potential (e.g., Guyana, Papua New Guinea); (2) low forest cover, high deforestation, and low carbon potential (e.g., Mexico, China, Nigeria); and (3) high forest cover, high deforestation, and high carbon potential (Brazil, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Indonesia).
• Brazil, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are identified as irreplaceable in climate terms, collectively holding a potential for 29.45 GtCO2 in carbon removal through restoration. Brazil alone holds 16.67 GtCO2, while Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo each hold more than 6 GtCO2.
• The analysis finds no inherent trade-off between the forest agenda and economic development, noting that countries with higher deforestation rates do not necessarily have higher income levels, and those with large forested areas do not necessarily have low GDP per capita.

APA

Climate Policy Initiative (2025). Tropical Forest Countries: Challenges and Opportunities (The Forest-Climate Nexus: A Fit-for-Purpose Framework for Climate Impact) - CPI. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/tropical-forest-countries-challenges-and-opportunities-the-forest-climate-nexus-a-fit-for-purpose-framework-for-climate-impact/

Chicago

Climate Policy Initiative. Tropical Forest Countries: Challenges and Opportunities (The Forest-Climate Nexus: A Fit-for-Purpose Framework for Climate Impact) - CPI. 2025. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/tropical-forest-countries-challenges-and-opportunities-the-forest-climate-nexus-a-fit-for-purpose-framework-for-climate-impact/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Policy Initiative |title=Tropical Forest Countries: Challenges and Opportunities (The Forest-Climate Nexus: A Fit-for-Purpose Framework for Climate Impact) - CPI |date=23 September 2025 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/tropical-forest-countries-challenges-and-opportunities-the-forest-climate-nexus-a-fit-for-purpose-framework-for-climate-impact/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatepolicyinitiative2025tropical, author = {{Climate Policy Initiative}}, title = {{Tropical Forest Countries: Challenges and Opportunities (The Forest-Climate Nexus: A Fit-for-Purpose Framework for Climate Impact) - CPI}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2025}, month = sep, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/tropical-forest-countries-challenges-and-opportunities-the-forest-climate-nexus-a-fit-for-purpose-framework-for-climate-impact/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }