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The study investigated the December 1, 2015, rainfall event in Chennai, where some stations recorded up to 494 mm of rain in 24 hours, causing an estimated US $3 billion in economic costs. Using observational data and regional climate models, researchers found no detectable effect of human-induced climate change on the probability of this extreme one-day rainfall. The analysis suggests that the cooling effect of aerosols in the western Bay of Bengal likely counteracted greenhouse gas warming, while non-anthropogenic factors, such as El Niño and sea surface temperature anomalies, played a more significant role.

The policy brief examines the emergence of the Blue Economy as a central priority for African policymakers, specifically through the AU's 2050 Africa’s Integrated Maritime Strategy (2050 AIM Strategy). It identifies a significant challenge of fragmentation, where maritime ambitions span a complex array of sector-specific institutions and programmes. The author suggests that the 2050 AIM Strategy should link with the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), which has recently undergone institutional renewal and adopted the Blue Economy as its top priority. The brief emphasizes that for these initiatives to succeed, they must avoid duplicating sector-specific efforts and instead focus on high-level integrated planning, improved communication platforms, and bolstered institutional capacity.

The document examines the revival of the Indian Ocean as a commercial and geo-strategic hub, driven by the strategic visions of China, India, and Indonesia. It details China's 'maritime Silk Road', India's focus on security and the 'cotton route', and Indonesia's 'global maritime fulcrum'. The brief highlights South Africa's 'Operation Phakisa' and its goal to expand its blue economy. It concludes that Africa must coordinate its maritime strategies through the AU and IORA to avoid further militarisation and to leverage economic opportunities from these emerging power strategies.

The 4PCCD project (2011-2013) implemented a participatory urban planning tool in Maputo, Mozambique, to identify local priorities for climate action. The project demonstrated that involving citizens from informal settlements can accelerate climate policy development and empower communities to present collective visions to government and private sectors. However, the findings indicate that meaningful community consultation and scientific climate impact assessments require sufficient allocations of time and financial resources.

The document outlines how climate change poses an existential threat to Small Island Developing States (SIDS) through sea level rise, ocean acidification, and extreme weather. It emphasizes that while adaptation can reduce risks, SIDS face high economic costs due to a lack of economies of scale and limited resources. The briefing advocates for the integration of adaptation, mitigation, and development strategies, highlighting the potential for renewable energy to enhance energy security and the necessity of international cooperation to avert dangerous climate change.

The document outlines the existential threats posed to Small Island Developing States (SIDS) by climate change, specifically sea level rise and ocean acidification. It emphasizes that while adaptation can reduce risks, SIDS face high per-capita costs due to a lack of economies of scale. The report advocates for integrating climate adaptation with broader development goals and transitioning to renewable energy to enhance energy security.

The document analyzes the Indian Ocean as a critical global trade and energy highway, detailing the shift from colonial hegemony to a complex environment involving new regional powers like India and China. It identifies key security threats including piracy, illegal fishing, smuggling, and asymmetrical attacks by non-state actors, while evaluating the role of international naval coalitions and regional cooperation frameworks in maintaining maritime order.

The paper examines Kenya's response to maritime piracy, noting that while the country's geostrategic location makes it a crucial actor, its engagement has lacked a coherent domestic strategy. It highlights the economic impact of piracy, the failure of previous prosecution agreements due to resource gaps, and the potential for improved strategic engagement through international conferences and regional cooperation.

The report argues that maritime piracy off the coast of Somalia imposes significant economic costs on Kenya, including shipping surcharges and losses in tourism, while also facilitating money laundering within the country. It assesses previous counter-piracy efforts, noting that while Kenya has attempted to prosecute pirates, these efforts were hampered by jurisdictional conflicts and archaic evidentiary laws. The author recommends a multi-pronged strategy that combines sea-based naval patrols with land-based efforts to rebuild the Somali state and disrupt the financial networks of pirate bosses operating within Kenya.

The document examines the Indian Ocean as a critical space for energy security and maritime trade, where global powers like the US, China, India, and Russia compete for influence. It argues that while these powers employ strategies such as 'lily pads' or 'string of pearls' to secure sea lines of communication, continental Africa has remained passive, lacking the political will and resources to proactively manage its own maritime domain.

The Indian Ocean contains 13 percent of the world's coral reefs, with over 65 percent currently at risk from local threats, primarily overfishing. Projections indicate that by 2050, all areas in the region will be considered threatened due to the combined impact of local pressures and climate-related stressors such as thermal stress and acidification. While 19 percent of reefs are within marine protected areas, only 11 percent of the region's reefs are in MPAs with effective or partially effective management.

The Reefs at Risk Revisited analysis finds that approximately 75 percent of global coral reefs are threatened by local and global pressures, with local threats affecting over 60 percent. Without intervention to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and local pressures, threatened reefs could increase to over 90 percent by 2030 and nearly all reefs by 2050. While over 25 percent of reefs are in marine protected areas, only 6 percent are effectively managed. The report identifies 27 nations as most vulnerable to reef degradation, including Haiti, Indonesia, and the Philippines.

The report examines the 'last mile' of tsunami early warning systems (EWS) in the Indian Ocean, arguing that while significant technical and institutional progress has been made, the human dimension of response is often neglected. Through participatory assessments in Thailand, Sri Lanka, and Indonesia, the study identifies critical gaps in community engagement, trust in technology, and the integration of disaster risk reduction (DRR) with local livelihoods. It recommends moving from a prescriptive, expert-driven approach to a people-centred model that prioritizes sub-national context, sustainable local funding, and the reconciliation of EWS with other community priorities.

The report evaluates Thailand's post-2004 tsunami disaster risk reduction (DRR) and early warning system (EWS) efforts, focusing on Krabi Province. While national institutional frameworks and monitoring technologies like DART buoys have improved, significant gaps remain in the 'last mile'—the connection between national warnings and local action. Key failures include dysfunctional warning towers, inappropriate evacuation routes, and a lack of community-specific risk knowledge. The study argues for a shift toward 'people-centred' EWS that integrates indigenous knowledge, ensures local government accountability, and aligns DRM with community livelihoods to overcome distrust and resource constraints at the sub-national level.

The statement highlights recent oil spills in the Indian Ocean, the Philippines, and Lebanon, as well as leaks in Alaska, to illustrate the environmental risks and pollution associated with oil production and use.

The briefing analyzes the rise of piracy in Somalia, specifically citing the seizure of the MV Faina, as evidence of systemic security failures. It attributes the crisis to the inability of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) to provide security, the limited mandate of AMISOM, and the failure of regional bodies like IGAD. The author contends that piracy gained local legitimacy as a response to the illegal exploitation of Somali marine resources by foreign companies and argues that military solutions are insufficient without a paradigm shift toward human security and the establishment of an inclusive Somali government.

The document details how Zimbabwe's education sector managed the aftermath of tropical cyclone Idai through a multi-stakeholder cluster system and SMS-based needs assessment. It highlights the necessity of mental health support, the role of school clusters in resource sharing, and the challenges of using schools as emergency shelters. Long-term efforts include 'building back better' with resilient infrastructure and implementing inclusive education tools like solar radios to minimize future disruptions.

This policy brief describes the Global Islands’ Vulnerability Research Adaptation Policy and Development (GIVRAPD) Project, an interdisciplinary research initiative focused on understanding the socioeconomic, governance, and environmental factors that influence the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of small and medium-sized coastal communities in Small Island Developing States (SIDS).

International public adaptation finance for Small Island Developing States (SIDS) averaged just over $2 billion annually in 2021–2022, representing only 0.2% of global climate finance. This is significantly below the estimated annual need of $11.7 billion required between 2023 and 2035. The report highlights a critical reliance on debt, which accounted for 44% of flows, and a lack of correlation between finance volumes and climate vulnerability. It advocates for replacing ODA eligibility criteria with a multidimensional vulnerability index to improve access to concessional funding.

This research paper by Prof. TD Potgieter examines the historical strategic setting of maritime security in the Indian Ocean, focusing on the transition from traditional trade patterns to European naval dominance and the role of sea power in empire building.