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The report finds that 16 of the 25 major emitting countries and regions analysed are not on track to meet their self-determined NDC targets. While some countries like Brazil, China, and India are likely to achieve their targets with current policies, others, including the US, EU, and Canada, require additional measures. Furthermore, current policies are projected to fail to prevent emissions from increasing up to 2030 relative to 2010 levels in both developing and OECD nations, with only Japan and the EU projected to see further decreases.

The paper explores the intersection of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) and climate goals, arguing that exponential technologies—those with rapidly falling costs and improving performance—can allow developing nations to 'leapfrog' obsolete infrastructure. By analyzing the NDCs of six priority countries, the authors map potential applications of AI, blockchain, IoT, and advanced materials across energy, transport, and agriculture sectors. While highlighting opportunities for decarbonization and financial inclusion, the document warns of risks including job displacement due to automation and the potential for energy-intensive technology lock-in.

Ethiopia utilizes the Climate-Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) strategy to aim for middle-income status by 2025 while reducing emissions and building resilience. The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) serves as a roadmap to mainstream adaptation across sectors and government levels, from federal to woreda. Key priority sectors for adaptation include agriculture, forestry, water, energy, transport, industry, health, and urban areas, addressing threats such as droughts, floods, rainfall variability, and increasing temperatures. The process has evolved from the 2007 National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) through the Ethiopian Programme of Adaptation to Climate Change (EPACC) to the current NAP framework, with recent milestones including Green Climate Fund support for gender-responsive drought resilience.

The document challenges the narrative that water scarcity directly causes violent conflict, asserting instead that the 'politics of water'—including corruption, marginalization, and poor state management—increases conflict risks. While Africa faces significant physical water stress, with 65% of the population experiencing occasional stress and 82% of the continent being arid or semi-arid, empirical research suggests that scarcity often leads to cooperation rather than violence. Conflict typically emerges when water is treated as a 'club good' distributed based on political weight or social networks rather than need. This is particularly evident in the disparity between urban and rural access, the prioritization of cash crops for irrigation, and the rise of informal service providers, such as gangs and militias, who exploit water needs for profit in weak states.

The document analyzes the intersection of G20 economic governance and African development priorities. It finds a strong alignment between the UN 2030 Agenda, AU Agenda 2063, and recent G20 initiatives, particularly in infrastructure, food security, and energy. However, it highlights significant gaps in the implementation of these goals and criticizes the 'Compact with Africa' for lacking sufficient African consultation and failing to address diverse national contexts. The authors recommend that South Africa and other G20 members better resource AU and NEPAD representation and create stronger linkages between isolated G20 initiatives for Africa.

The paper analyzes the UN's efforts to create global frameworks for migration and refugee management via the Global Compact for Migration (GCM) and the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR). It highlights that while the GCR benefits from established international law and the leadership of the UNHCR, the GCM is a more politicized, state-led process lacking a foundational legal base. The author expresses concern over the minimal participation of African states and the African Union in the GCM process, arguing that this lack of engagement may lead to a framework that favors Global North interests, such as border security and return policies, over the socio-economic needs and mobility of African citizens.

The document analyzes the divergent priorities between the EU, which focuses on stemming irregular migration and border control, and African nations, which prioritize development, employment, and legal mobility. It critiques the EU Emergency Trust Fund for Africa (EUTF) for using aid conditionality to secure readmission agreements and argues that a lack of AU consensus, combined with restrictive bilateral agreements, hinders a coherent continental approach to migration.

The document analyzes the challenges and opportunities for expanding electricity access in Tanzania, focusing on the role of the private sector and the AfDB. It highlights the financial instability of the national utility, TANESCO, and the impact of recurring droughts on hydropower. The paper argues for a shift toward renewable energy and the development of a local renewable energy value chain to support industrialization and rural access.

The 2017 AdaptationWatch report argues that the Paris Agreement has shifted climate policy into an era of implementation, yet significant gaps remain in adaptation finance and transparency. It highlights that adaptation funding is overwhelmingly lower than mitigation funding and is often difficult for the most vulnerable nations to access due to complex accreditation processes and a lack of clear definitions distinguishing adaptation from general development. The report examines regional experiences, noting that while Latin American and Caribbean countries have made progress in institutional frameworks and GCF Readiness, Southeast Asia faces a disconnect between global finance scales and local needs. It also identifies a critical lack of compliance and standardized methodology in the Biennial Update Reports (BURs) of non-Annex I Parties, which obscures the actual amount of finance received. The document concludes with ten recommendations, emphasizing the need for increased adaptation finance, co-designing actions with local communities, and reorienting capacity building toward long-term, in-country ownership.

The report finds that 'green finance' aligned with forest and climate goals is severely insufficient, totaling roughly USD 20 billion since 2010, and is dwarfed by 'grey finance'—investments in agricultural drivers of deforestation—which amounts to USD 777 billion. While results-based REDD+ payments have mobilized over USD 4.1 billion, disbursements remain limited. The authors argue that achieving zero deforestation by 2030 requires a dramatic shift of existing financial flows away from deforestation drivers toward sustainable land use and the strengthening of private sector ESG policies.

The paper examines how climate finance is decentralized in Ethiopia and Kenya, specifically analyzing the Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) facility and the County Climate Change Funds (CCCFs). It assesses the extent to which these funds align local community priorities with national climate policies and development plans, focusing on the impact of decision-making authority and jurisdictional levels on investment prioritization.

The document examines the failure of traditional humanitarian aid in Ethiopia, which often undermined local resilience by displacing local businesses and decimating farmer herds. It highlights a 2016 experiment by Mercy Corps that used subsidies for traders to maintain livestock prices and vouchers to support local veterinary and forage businesses, allowing pastoralists to preserve their core breeding stock and strengthen local economies during the 2016/7 drought.

The document outlines six key tips for managing country-led development assistance: prioritizing in-country leadership by nationals, utilizing co-developed and flexible Theories of Change, aligning budgets with long-term goals, preferring local suppliers, and integrating monitoring and learning into ongoing strategic planning.

The report argues that sub-Saharan Africa's inability to reduce poverty is rooted in rapid population growth and high demographic dependency ratios. While aid has provided modest positive impacts on growth and significant improvements in health and education indicators, it remains palliative unless it can sustain inclusive economic growth. The author presents three aid scenarios to 2030 (Current Path, More Aid, and Less Aid) and a fourth scenario focusing on reduced fertility. The analysis concludes that matching Ethiopia's fertility decline would have a significantly more positive impact on poverty rates by 2030 and 2040 than a substantial increase in aid.

The report analyzes the high stakes of the 2017 Somaliland presidential elections, noting that while the country has a strong democratic record, it faces significant institutional decay and increasing corruption. It highlights the role of clan alliances in determining the outcome between the Kulmiye and Waddani parties and discusses the security risks posed by territorial disputes with Puntland and the rise of al-Shabaab in the region.

The document outlines a Gender Action Plan for a drought resilience project in Ethiopia, specifying objectives to identify gender-differentiated climate impacts, empower women through the documentation of indigenous knowledge, and ensure gender balance in decision-making. It sets targets such as a 50/50 gender balance in committees and the training of 600 women in the use of improved technologies. The plan is supported by a review of international agreements and an analysis of gender-specific vulnerabilities and capacities in disaster management.

The document examines the role of collaborative RD&D in accelerating the deployment of climate technologies, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. It analyzes various public and private financing instruments, identifies trends such as the decline of venture capital in hardware-based cleantech, and proposes two modalities for GCF support: strengthening innovation systems and providing targeted RD&D support for specific technologies.

The briefing examines the rise of agricultural growth poles, or agropoles, across Africa as a strategy to attract private investment and transition from subsistence to commercial agriculture. It identifies 36 growth poles and 9 corridors across 23 countries, covering at least 3.5 million hectares. While these tools aim to boost competitiveness and industrialization, the document highlights operational failures, such as delays in Morocco and Senegal, and risks like 'land grabbing' and the creation of economic dualism. It argues that for agropoles to be sustainable, they must be supported by robust national legal frameworks, avoid restrictive stabilization clauses, and follow a three-step development process: vision, design, and implementation, with a strong emphasis on community engagement and environmental impact assessments.

The paper examines the alignment between national budgets and NDC commitments in four sub-Saharan African countries. It finds that while some ministries show rising budget projections, there are significant discrepancies between planned and actual spending. The analysis reveals that limited domestic resources are allocated to NDC actions, with a heavy reliance on international donor support. The author suggests that programme-based budgeting and Medium-Term Expenditure Frameworks offer opportunities to better track and report climate spending, though current precision remains low.

The executive summary outlines a framework for countries to conduct voluntary self- and peer reviews of fossil fuel subsidies (FFS). It describes the 'building blocks' of these reviews—including scope, definition, measurement, and evaluation—and provides practical recommendations based on the experiences of countries such as China, Finland, New Zealand, Peru, and Sweden. The guide emphasizes that these reviews are tools for peer learning and domestic reform rather than compliance mechanisms, aiming to align subsidies with sustainable development and international commitments like those of the G7, G20, and the UN Sustainable Development Goals.