High stakes for Somaliland’s presidential elections

The report analyzes the high stakes of the 2017 Somaliland presidential elections, noting that while the country has a strong democratic record, it faces significant institutional decay and increasing corruption. It highlights the role of clan alliances in determining the outcome between the Kulmiye and Waddani parties and discusses the security risks posed by territorial disputes with Puntland and the rise of al-Shabaab in the region.

• Somaliland's electoral timeline has suffered significant delays, with the November 2017 presidential elections originally scheduled for June 2015. Consequently, all national elected figures have overstayed their constitutional term limits, including members of the Lower House who have served 14 years without election and Guurti members who have not undergone selection since 1997.
• The National Electoral Commission (NEC) implemented a new iris-capture biometric voter registration system to prevent fraud and multiple registration, a first for Africa. This process resulted in 873,331 registered voters, a decrease from the 1,069,914 recorded in 2010, which suggests the new safeguards were effective.
• Clan allegiances remain a primary determinant of electoral outcomes despite the three-party system. The contest is largely seen as a race between the ruling Kulmiye party, supported by a Habar Jeclo-Habar Awal alliance, and the opposition Waddani party, which is attempting to disrupt that alliance by courting the Habar Jeclo and Arab clans.
• The Silanyo administration has been criticized for increased corruption, tribalism, and a lack of transparency regarding international agreements. Specifically, the military base and port deals with the UAE were passed through Parliament in a manner decried as unconstitutional, with allegations that cash transfers influenced the votes.
• Somaliland's political institutions are experiencing serious decay. The Guurti (Upper House) has seen its role as a neutral arbiter degraded due to a lack of selection processes for over 20 years and the practice of hereditary succession, where approximately 90% of seats have passed to the sons of original members.
• The territorial dispute with Puntland creates security risks for the electoral process in the east. While voter registration expanded to 21 of 23 districts, Puntland has a history of disrupting voting, and violence has occurred during registration and card distribution, including the killing of two people in Las Anod.
• There is growing concern over the rise of al-Shabaab and Islamic State-aligned militants in neighboring Puntland. While violence has remained localized, the group's increased capacity for direct confrontation—exemplified by the attack on the Af Urur military base—poses a potential spillover risk to Somaliland.
• The UAE deals for the Berbera port and military base have brought unprecedented investment, including a $442 million lease for the port and $250 million for airport and highway development. These agreements have increased the stakes of the election, as the incoming administration will oversee their implementation and potential future earnings.

APA

Mahmood, O. S., & Farah, M. (2017). High stakes for Somaliland’s presidential elections. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear15.pdf

Chicago

Mahmood, Omar S, and Mohamed Farah. High stakes for Somaliland’s presidential elections. Institute for Security Studies, 2017. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear15.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Mahmood |first1=Omar S |last2=Farah |first2=Mohamed |title=High stakes for Somaliland’s presidential elections |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=October 2017 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear15.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mahmood2017high, author = {Mahmood, Omar S and Farah, Mohamed}, title = {{High stakes for Somaliland’s presidential elections}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2017}, month = oct, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear15.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }