Budgeting for NDC action: initial lessons from four climate-vulnerable countries

This research paper examines whether climate change-related expenditures are appearing in the national budgets of Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda to support the implementation of their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). The author finds that while some budget projections show increasing resources for key ministries, there is a significant discrepancy between these estimates and actual spending, and many NDC-related projects remain heavily dependent on international donor support.

• There is a significant gap between projected budget estimates and actual expenditures in the reviewed countries, which may hinder the rapid implementation of new climate change programs. In Ethiopia, for example, approved budgets were found to be "a poor predictor of actual expenditures on climate change actions during 2009-2012".
• The early implementation of NDCs in Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda is heavily reliant on international financial support, as many relevant national projects are dependent on donors. This aligns with the conditional elements of their NDCs, such as in Uganda, where 70% of the incremental costs for priority actions are assumed to come from international sources.
• Budgetary reforms, specifically the introduction of programme-based budgeting, have improved the potential for identifying climate-related spending. These reforms were introduced in Ethiopia in 2012, Ghana in 2014, Kenya in 2013, and Uganda in 2017.
• Ghana has developed a 'climate change budget' consisting of 30 policy objective budget codes to track relevant spending. However, a review of 2017 estimates showed that for the largest budget allocations in the Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources, achieving objectives is "highly dependent on the donor contribution".
• In Uganda, references to climate change, adaptation, and mitigation were identified in 22 budget codes across the energy, water, forestry, and agriculture sectors, indicating a recognition of NDC commitments within national budget documentation.
• Kenya's NDC commitments are strongly linked to its national development plan, with the 2017/2018 Programme Based Budget identifying eight relevant sub-programmes. Major planned investments include rail transport and geothermal generation capacity.

APA

Bird, N. (2017). Budgeting for NDC action: initial lessons from four climate-vulnerable countries. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/National-budgeting-for-NDCs_web.pdf

Chicago

Bird, Neil. Budgeting for NDC action: initial lessons from four climate-vulnerable countries. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2017. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/National-budgeting-for-NDCs_web.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bird |first1=Neil |title=Budgeting for NDC action: initial lessons from four climate-vulnerable countries |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=September 2017 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/National-budgeting-for-NDCs_web.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bird2017budgeting, author = {Bird, Neil}, title = {{Budgeting for NDC action: initial lessons from four climate-vulnerable countries}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2017}, month = sep, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/National-budgeting-for-NDCs_web.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }