Emerging and exponential technologies: New opportunities for low-carbon development

The paper explores the intersection of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) and climate goals, arguing that exponential technologies—those with rapidly falling costs and improving performance—can allow developing nations to 'leapfrog' obsolete infrastructure. By analyzing the NDCs of six priority countries, the authors map potential applications of AI, blockchain, IoT, and advanced materials across energy, transport, and agriculture sectors. While highlighting opportunities for decarbonization and financial inclusion, the document warns of risks including job displacement due to automation and the potential for energy-intensive technology lock-in.

• The Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) is driven by disruptive technologies and business models that are projected to have "unprecedented speed, scope and scale" in their impact on production and consumption systems.
• Exponential technologies are defined by continuous improvements where "the power and/or speed doubles each year, and/or the cost drops by half", a pattern seen in solar PV, wind, and battery storage.
• Developing countries have the potential to 'leapfrog' previous economic development patterns by adopting 4IR technologies, which can reduce the need for long-lived, infrastructure-intensive investments in sectors like energy and transport.
• In the energy sector, 4IR technologies such as blockchain can enable peer-to-peer energy trading and decentralized payment systems, facilitating a shift from state-owned utilities to "a consumer-driven, highly competitive market".
• The transport sector could be transformed by 'transportation as a service' enabled by autonomous electric vehicles, which may "dramatically reducing the need for car ownership" and lower CO2 emissions from light-duty vehicles by 90% by 2030 in some scenarios.
• In agriculture and forestry, 4IR tools like nano-satellites and drones provide "real-time remote sensing of deforestation and land-use change", which helps overcome data gaps in national emissions models.
• The transition to 4IR technologies poses significant social risks, including the potential for automation to displace jobs in haulage, manufacturing, and rural agriculture, which could "exacerbate unemployment" in developing countries.
• There is a risk of 'technology lock-in' to energy-inefficient 4IR applications; for example, Bitcoin's energy-inefficient blockchain is estimated to consume 16.22 terawatt hours annually.
• Effective 4IR implementation requires a 'Roadmap' involving awareness-raising, governance structures to incorporate innovation into national planning, and new innovation finance from multilateral development banks and the Green Climate Fund.

APA

Combes, B., Nassiry, D., Fitzgerald, L., & Moussa, T. (2017). Emerging and exponential technologies: New opportunities for low-carbon development. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/CDKN-emerging-tech_WEB-final.pdf

Chicago

Combes, Benjamin, Darius Nassiry, Lizzy Fitzgerald, and Tarik Moussa. Emerging and exponential technologies: New opportunities for low-carbon development. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2017. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/CDKN-emerging-tech_WEB-final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Combes |first1=Benjamin |last2=Nassiry |first2=Darius |last3=Fitzgerald |first3=Lizzy |last4=Moussa |first4=Tarik |title=Emerging and exponential technologies: New opportunities for low-carbon development |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=November 2017 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/CDKN-emerging-tech_WEB-final.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{combes2017emerging, author = {Combes, Benjamin and Nassiry, Darius and Fitzgerald, Lizzy and Moussa, Tarik}, title = {{Emerging and exponential technologies: New opportunities for low-carbon development}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2017}, month = nov, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/CDKN-emerging-tech_WEB-final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }