Water Stress and Conflicts in Africa

This policy brief from the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) argues that violent conflict in Africa is driven by the politics of water distribution and poor governance rather than physical water scarcity. While the continent faces significant environmental vulnerability and water stress, the authors find that scarcity often leads to cooperation rather than conflict. Instead, insecurity arises when water is managed as a 'club good,' favoring politically connected groups and allowing informal service providers, such as gangs and militias, to control access in urban areas.

• Empirical research largely refutes a direct causal link between water scarcity and violent conflict, noting that local scarcity often results in cooperation in both domestic and international contexts.
• Conflict over water is primarily a result of poor governance and the 'politics of water,' where distribution is based on the political weight of communities and social networks rather than actual need or vulnerability.
• Africa is highly vulnerable to water stress, with 82 percent of the continent being arid or semi-arid and 65 percent of the population experiencing occasional water stress.
• Water access is heavily skewed by economic and political factors; irrigation is concentrated in wealthy, stable countries or areas producing cash crops for export where communities have favored relationships with governments.
• In weak states and urban areas, the lack of formal water infrastructure leads to the rise of informal service providers (ISPs), including gangs, militias, and thugs, who use water provision for 'rent seeking' and profit, thereby increasing insecurity.
• Tensions frequently arise over water rights and ownership, particularly between farmers and settled pastoralists, or regarding the ownership of permanent boreholes versus temporary wells.
• The document identifies specific regional patterns where weather affects conflict strategy: in the Kenyan northwest, Ugandan East, Somalia, and northern Sahel, fighting increases during wet seasons, whereas in South Sudan, rebels are more active during dry seasons to facilitate troop movement.

APA

Bakken, I. V., & Raleigh, C. (2017). Water Stress and Conflicts in Africa. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c49e53c2-64e5-4112-801a-a9b482e09c19/Raleigh et al - Water Stress and Conflicts in Africa PRIO Policy Brief 11-2017.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Bakken, Ingrid Vik, and Clionadh Raleigh. Water Stress and Conflicts in Africa. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2017. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c49e53c2-64e5-4112-801a-a9b482e09c19/Raleigh et al - Water Stress and Conflicts in Africa PRIO Policy Brief 11-2017.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bakken |first1=Ingrid Vik |last2=Raleigh |first2=Clionadh |title=Water Stress and Conflicts in Africa |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=November 2017 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c49e53c2-64e5-4112-801a-a9b482e09c19/Raleigh et al - Water Stress and Conflicts in Africa PRIO Policy Brief 11-2017.pdf?inline=true |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bakken2017water, author = {Bakken, Ingrid Vik and Raleigh, Clionadh}, title = {{Water Stress and Conflicts in Africa}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2017}, month = nov, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c49e53c2-64e5-4112-801a-a9b482e09c19/Raleigh et al - Water Stress and Conflicts in Africa PRIO Policy Brief 11-2017.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }