Water Stress and Conflicts in Africa

The document challenges the narrative that water scarcity directly causes violent conflict, asserting instead that the 'politics of water'—including corruption, marginalization, and poor state management—increases conflict risks. While Africa faces significant physical water stress, with 65% of the population experiencing occasional stress and 82% of the continent being arid or semi-arid, empirical research suggests that scarcity often leads to cooperation rather than violence. Conflict typically emerges when water is treated as a 'club good' distributed based on political weight or social networks rather than need. This is particularly evident in the disparity between urban and rural access, the prioritization of cash crops for irrigation, and the rise of informal service providers, such as gangs and militias, who exploit water needs for profit in weak states.

• Empirical research largely refutes a direct causal link between water scarcity and violent conflict, noting that local scarcity often results in cooperation in both domestic and international contexts.
• Conflict risk is primarily driven by the 'politics of water,' where distribution is based on the political influence of communities and social networks rather than actual need or vulnerability.
• Africa faces high physical vulnerability to water stress, with 82% of the continent being arid or semi-arid and 65% of the population living with occasional water stress.
• Water infrastructure and irrigation are unevenly distributed, often favoring economically productive areas producing cash crops for export and communities with favored relationships with governments.
• Poor state management and a lack of formal bureaucracy lead to the emergence of informal service providers (ISPs), including gangs and militias, who use water provision for 'rent seeking' and profit, increasing urban insecurity.
• Tensions frequently arise over land and water ownership, particularly when pastoralists are pressured to settle or when rangelands are fenced to limit encroachment.
• In Sub-Saharan Africa, approximately 40% of the population lacks access to improved water sources, with state delivery stagnating in rural areas while marginally increasing in urban centers since the early 2000s.

APA

Bakken, I. V., & Raleigh, C. (2017). Water Stress and Conflicts in Africa. Peace Research Institute Oslo. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c49e53c2-64e5-4112-801a-a9b482e09c19/Raleigh et al - Water Stress and Conflicts in Africa PRIO Policy Brief 11-2017.pdf?inline=true

Chicago

Bakken, Ingrid Vik, and Clionadh Raleigh. Water Stress and Conflicts in Africa. Peace Research Institute Oslo, 2017. https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c49e53c2-64e5-4112-801a-a9b482e09c19/Raleigh et al - Water Stress and Conflicts in Africa PRIO Policy Brief 11-2017.pdf?inline=true.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bakken |first1=Ingrid Vik |last2=Raleigh |first2=Clionadh |title=Water Stress and Conflicts in Africa |publisher=Peace Research Institute Oslo |date=November 2017 |url=https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c49e53c2-64e5-4112-801a-a9b482e09c19/Raleigh et al - Water Stress and Conflicts in Africa PRIO Policy Brief 11-2017.pdf?inline=true |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bakken2017water, author = {Bakken, Ingrid Vik and Raleigh, Clionadh}, title = {{Water Stress and Conflicts in Africa}}, institution = {Peace Research Institute Oslo}, year = {2017}, month = nov, url = {https://cdn.cloud.prio.org/files/c49e53c2-64e5-4112-801a-a9b482e09c19/Raleigh et al - Water Stress and Conflicts in Africa PRIO Policy Brief 11-2017.pdf?inline=true}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }