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The report examines the fragmented political and security environment in South Sudan as it attempts to implement the R-ARCSS. It details the proliferation of armed opposition groups, the concentration of power within the government, and the challenges facing the IGAD-led mediation process, including the influence of bilateral interests from regional powers like Sudan and Uganda.

The report examines the 2019 outlook for the African Union's Peace and Security Council, highlighting the potential return of major powers like South Africa and Ethiopia to the council. It critiques the slow implementation of AU reforms, specifically regarding financial self-sufficiency and the reduction of the AU Commission. The document details a volatile 2019 electoral calendar across 11+ countries and warns of escalating instability in Gabon, Cameroon, and the Sahel. Additionally, it discusses the progress of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and the tensions surrounding AU-EU negotiations.

The report identifies that the typical LCOE for well-run minigrids is at least $0.60 per kWh, which is too expensive for widespread use. It proposes six cost-reduction pathways—hardware standardization, demand stimulation, customer engagement, clustered project development, low-cost financing, and regulatory reform—to bring the LCOE down to $0.25 per kWh by 2020. The document also provides an investment roadmap to transition from grant funding to commercial debt.

The paper argues that Africa can leapfrog into sustainable development by learning from China's infrastructure successes and failures. It highlights the 'Avoid-Shift-Improve' framework for transportation and examines case studies in high-speed rail, automated ports, and urban mass transit to suggest low-carbon alternatives to road-based development.

The document analyzes the remittance landscape in Ethiopia, noting a significant discrepancy between World Bank and National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) inflow estimates. It identifies a high reliance on informal channels, estimated at 65% to 80% of remittance value, driven primarily by an overvalued currency and restrictive foreign exchange controls. The formal sector is bank-led and dominated by a few large players, with limited digital penetration due to the absence of e-money licenses and a lack of a national ID database. Infrastructure challenges, including low electricity and internet access and a basic national payment system lacking a retail electronic funds transfer (EFT) system, further hinder the efficiency of formal transfers. The report recommends implementing a risk-based approach to AML/CFT, legalizing foreign currency exchange at market rates, and developing a comprehensive e-money regulatory framework to reduce informality and costs.

The document examines the shift in Africa's debt structure toward non-concessional and domestic loans, identifying drivers such as commodity price shocks and fiscal deficits. It assesses the debt-carrying capacity of various African nations using IMF and World Bank frameworks, noting that several countries are in debt distress or at high risk. The briefing details current coping mechanisms, including the issuance of long-term Eurobonds and novel financial products, and recommends enhancing domestic revenue mobilization, economic diversification, and the establishment of autonomous debt management offices.

The document analyzes the resurgence of debt in Africa, noting that 19 countries have exceeded the 60% debt-to-GDP threshold. It identifies key drivers such as commodity price shocks, exchange rate volatility, and a shift from concessional to market-based loans. Through case studies of Nigeria and Morocco, it examines debt management strategies, including the use of Eurobonds and the importance of autonomous debt management offices, while recommending economic diversification and improved domestic resource mobilization to ensure long-term sustainability.

The document analyzes the similarities and differences between China's engagement with Africa via the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and with Arab states via the China–Arab States Cooperation Forum (CASCF). It finds that while China–Arab relations are characterized by deeper economic and energy ties, China–Africa relations are more robust in terms of cultural diplomacy, people-to-people exchanges, and military engagement. The author highlights how China uses Africa as a testing ground for foreign policy initiatives and notes potential frictions in the Horn of Africa where Chinese and Gulf state interests overlap.

The document argues that while individual CVF countries have low emissions, their collective impact is significant, equivalent to the world's fifth largest emitter. It provides a 'menu of options' for updating NDCs across key sectors—energy, transport, forests, and agriculture—while emphasizing the need for enhanced international finance, technology transfer, and robust national legal frameworks to implement these ambitions.

The report argues that GDP is an insufficient measure of national progress and advocates for the use of comprehensive wealth measures. Analysis of Canadian data from 1980 to 2015 reveals several sustainability risks, including rising household debt, declining lifetime earning potential, heavy reliance on foreign investment, and a significant drop in the market value of the oil sands. The author emphasizes that Canada's comprehensive wealth portfolio is vulnerable to climate change impacts.

The report analyzes 10 specific climate solutions for Kenya and Ethiopia, focusing on their potential for emission reductions, associated costs, savings, and co-benefits to inform policy recommendations.

The report examines the 'architecture of impunity' that allows transnational corporations (TNCs) to evade legal accountability for human rights and environmental violations. It specifically critiques the European Union for acting as a key opponent to the UN Open-Ended Intergovernmental Working Group's (OEIGWG) efforts to establish a legally binding treaty, instead promoting voluntary Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and 'multi-stakeholderism'. The document details how 'corporate capture' occurs within EU and UN institutions, where private sector interests shape the regulations intended to govern them. This is illustrated through case studies of European TNCs—including Shell, Engie, and Glencore—operating in the Global South, where the report claims they outsource severe impacts while using CSR to deflect criticism. The report highlights the 2017 French 'duty of vigilance' law as a rare successful example of binding national legislation against this trend.

The report examines Ethiopia's shift toward the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF), which aims to move from camp-based assistance to socio-economic integration. Key initiatives include providing work permits, expanding the Out of Camp Policy, and creating jobs in industrial parks. However, the report identifies significant hurdles, including low national wages, ethnic tensions in regions like Gambella, and insufficient consultation with host communities.

The paper examines how African countries attempt to move beyond the export of raw minerals through resource-based industrialisation, specifically focusing on the role of Chinese investment. It analyzes tools such as export restrictions, local content requirements, and fiscal policies, concluding that these measures often fail due to inadequate infrastructure, energy shortages, and a lack of human capital. The author argues for a shift toward 'product space diversification'—developing capabilities that allow for a broader variety of exports—rather than focusing solely on downstream mineral processing (beneficiation).

The Smallholder Forestry Vehicle (SFV) is a proposed financial instrument designed to scale smallholder forestry in Africa by aggregating tree production contracts into a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV). By separating the high-risk establishment and harvest phases from the lower-risk growth phase, the SFV aims to lower the cost of capital and attract institutional investors. A proof-of-concept facility targeting US$ 35 million in coastal Kenya is proposed to restore 5,000 hectares of degraded land and provide climate-resilient savings to over 16,000 households. The analysis suggests that with concessional debt and first-loss equity, the vehicle can achieve a gross internal rate of return (IRR) of 11.1%. Long-term goals include expanding into Greater East Africa and mobilizing up to US$ 8.5 billion in initial investment to meet regional land restoration targets.

The Smallholder Forestry Vehicle is a proposed financial instrument designed to enable forestry companies in Africa to access long-term, low-cost finance by aggregating smallholder tree production contracts into a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV). By separating the high-risk establishment and harvest phases from the lower-risk growth phase, the vehicle aims to attract institutional investors, including pension funds and impact investors. A proof-of-concept facility targeting US$ 35 million in coastal Kenya is proposed to demonstrate risk-adjusted returns and climate resilience benefits, such as land restoration and diversified income for farmers. The analysis suggests that the instrument can leverage significant private capital and be replicated across other East African nations to meet land restoration targets.

The paper explores how African agency manifests in interactions with China, arguing that it is not merely a binary of power but a complex dynamic involving state, institutional, and non-state actors. Through case studies of the AU and the BRI, the authors analyze how structural reforms, debt sustainability, and local realities shape the bargaining power of African nations. While China holds significant structural power, the document suggests that African agency is exercised through proactive affirmation of partnerships, strategic non-compliance, and the influence of on-the-ground realities like security risks and wildlife trafficking.

The briefing contends that the distinction between adaptation and development projects is counter-productive and that adaptation should be viewed as 'doing development differently in response to climate change.' It proposes a framework for maximizing the impact of scarce adaptation finance by establishing strong climate rationales, building national adaptive capacity across four key areas, and shifting toward devolved decision-making to empower local communities.

The document analyzes how climate change increases the frequency and intensity of 'billion-dollar' disasters, straining national budgets and widening the 'protection gap'—the difference between total economic losses and insured losses. It details the transition from traditional actuarial science to forward-looking 'cat models' and geospatial modeling to price risk. To address 'tail risks' and the lack of insurability in vulnerable regions, the text highlights alternative mechanisms: catastrophe bonds for capital market risk transfer, microinsurance (parametric insurance) for low-income populations, and sovereign risk pools for multi-country coverage. It also notes the codification of insurance in international frameworks like the Paris Agreement's 'Loss and Damage' pillar and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.

The document analyzes the role of insurance in mitigating the fiscal shocks of climate change, highlighting the growing 'protection gap' where economic losses far exceed insured amounts. It details the shift from historical actuarial data to forward-looking 'catastrophe models' and explores innovative tools such as catastrophe bonds, microinsurance, and sovereign risk pools. The text also discusses the integration of insurance into international climate governance frameworks like the Paris Agreement and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.