Compound fractures

The report examines the fragmented political and security environment in South Sudan as it attempts to implement the R-ARCSS. It details the proliferation of armed opposition groups, the concentration of power within the government, and the challenges facing the IGAD-led mediation process, including the influence of bilateral interests from regional powers like Sudan and Uganda.

• The Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS) was signed in September 2018, but its implementation faces a difficult environment because the country's political and security sectors have become increasingly fragmented and incoherent.
• Government forces have achieved a military advantage on the battlefield through various offensives, but this has resulted in the alienation of civilians and a loss of confidence from international allies, specifically the United States.
• Numerous armed opposition groups have emerged due to the spread of conflict, falling government revenues, and the hope of gaining power through peace processes. These groups are typically led by military officers or politicians who defected or were removed from the government or the SPLM-IO.
• The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) successfully brokered the agreement, but the mediation process was hindered by the zero-sum mentality of the warring parties and the pursuit of bilateral interests by regional leaders.
• The conflict has had a devastating human and economic toll, with an estimated 382,000 deaths (approximately 3% of the population), the displacement of 4.2 million people, and a peak inflation rate exceeding 800% in October 2016.
• Political power within the government is increasingly concentrated among a small group, specifically those from the Rek subgroup of Dinka, a trend described as the 'Gogrialization of government'.
• The SPLM-IO remains the largest armed opposition group and maintains strong grassroots support, particularly as a symbol for the Nuer nation, despite internal divisions and military losses.
• The conflict expanded into Greater Equatoria after July 2016, leading to the rise of regional movements like the National Salvation Front (NAS) as communities sought to protect themselves from a state they perceive as Dinka- and Nuer-dominated.
• The South Sudan Opposition Alliance (SSOA) was formed in 2018 by ten opposition groups to create a unified front in the High-Level Revitalization Forum (HLRF), though the alliance is tenuous and members often lack common goals beyond opposing the government.
• Regional interference, particularly from Sudan and Uganda, has raised concerns that South Sudan could become an 'informal protectorate' of these neighbors, with Sudan specifically seeking security roles in oilfields.

APA

Deng, D. (2018). Compound fractures. Institute for Security Studies. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-21-1.pdf

Chicago

Deng, David. Compound fractures. Institute for Security Studies, 2018. https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-21-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Deng |first1=David |title=Compound fractures |publisher=Institute for Security Studies |date=December 2018 |url=https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-21-1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{deng2018compound, author = {Deng, David}, title = {{Compound fractures}}, institution = {Institute for Security Studies}, year = {2018}, month = dec, url = {https://issafrica.s3.amazonaws.com/site/uploads/ear-21-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }