IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT? AFRICAN AGENCY AND CHINESE POWER AT FOCAC, THE AU AND THE BRI

The paper explores how African agency manifests in interactions with China, arguing that it is not merely a binary of power but a complex dynamic involving state, institutional, and non-state actors. Through case studies of the AU and the BRI, the authors analyze how structural reforms, debt sustainability, and local realities shape the bargaining power of African nations. While China holds significant structural power, the document suggests that African agency is exercised through proactive affirmation of partnerships, strategic non-compliance, and the influence of on-the-ground realities like security risks and wildlife trafficking.

• The authors argue that African agency is not solely the domain of the state but is exercised across various levels, including elite conduct, institutional activism, civil society, and public mobilisation.
• Proposed AU reforms led by Rwandan President Paul Kagame aim to strengthen Africa's global voice by creating a more unified negotiating front with partners like China, potentially replacing large summits of dozens of leaders with a small group of representatives.
• The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), signed by 55 states on 21 March 2018, represents a commitment to multilateralism intended to increase intra-African trade, which is currently lower than in any other region at 15%.
• African agency is demonstrated when local realities force China to adjust its engagement, such as the 2011 Libya crisis pushing China toward peacekeeping and the pressure from African activism leading to the inclusion of wildlife conservation in the 2015 FOCAC agenda.
• The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is described as a flexible global integration scheme rather than a fixed route; while Africa was initially characterized as marginal, it has become central to China's continental engagement.
• Ethiopia serves as a case study of proactive agency within the BRI, using Chinese-funded infrastructure and special economic zones (SEZs) to jumpstart low-cost manufacturing for European markets.
• High levels of debt in BRI projects create risks for African sovereignty, as seen in Djibouti, where debt to China's Exim Bank reached $1.4 billion (approximately 75% of GDP), potentially giving China leverage over the government.
• The authors critique the 'debtbook diplomacy' narrative, suggesting it overestimates China's strategic agency and underestimates African agency, particularly the historical use of 'agency through compliance/non-compliance' to manage stronger partners.
• China faces its own vulnerabilities in the BRI, specifically reputational risks if African debt defaults are handled in ways that offend national pride or involve using assets as collateral.

APA

VAN STADEN, C., ALDEN, C., & WU, Y.-S. (2018). IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT? AFRICAN AGENCY AND CHINESE POWER AT FOCAC, THE AU AND THE BRI. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Occasional-Paper-286.pdf

Chicago

VAN STADEN, COBUS, CHRIS ALDEN, and YU-SHAN WU. IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT? AFRICAN AGENCY AND CHINESE POWER AT FOCAC, THE AU AND THE BRI. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2018. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Occasional-Paper-286.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=VAN STADEN |first1=COBUS |last2=ALDEN |first2=CHRIS |last3=WU |first3=YU-SHAN |title=IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT? AFRICAN AGENCY AND CHINESE POWER AT FOCAC, THE AU AND THE BRI |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=September 2018 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Occasional-Paper-286.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vanstaden2018drivers, author = {VAN STADEN, COBUS and ALDEN, CHRIS and WU, YU-SHAN}, title = {{IN THE DRIVER’S SEAT? AFRICAN AGENCY AND CHINESE POWER AT FOCAC, THE AU AND THE BRI}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2018}, month = sep, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Occasional-Paper-286.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }