CAN AFRICA BUILD GREENER INFRASTRUCTURE WHILE SPEEDING UP ITS DEVELOPMENT?

The paper argues that Africa can leapfrog into sustainable development by learning from China's infrastructure successes and failures. It highlights the 'Avoid-Shift-Improve' framework for transportation and examines case studies in high-speed rail, automated ports, and urban mass transit to suggest low-carbon alternatives to road-based development.

• China's economic growth was significantly bolstered by a 42-year demographic dividend, which added approximately 1.5% to annual growth. This period was characterized by a high support ratio of working-age individuals (15–64) relative to the elderly, allowing for rapid industrialization through low-cost labor.
• The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is driven by China's need to mitigate slowing domestic growth caused by an aging population and the exhaustion of its low-cost rural labor pool. China is now targeting 'poor and young' countries, particularly in Africa, as new frontiers for low-cost labor and investment.
• Infrastructure gaps in sub-Saharan Africa are estimated to reduce the region's annual growth rate by at least 1.2%. The African Development Bank estimates the annual infrastructure financing gap to be between $130 billion and $170 billion.
• China employs an 'Avoid–Shift–Improve' (ASI) framework for sustainable transportation: 'Avoid' reduces total demand via urban planning and telecommunications; 'Shift' moves passengers and freight to more efficient modes like rail or waterways; and 'Improve' upgrades vehicle technologies and emission standards.
• High-speed rail (HSR) offers a significantly lower carbon footprint than aviation. By 2025, HSR is expected to emit 20.6g of CO2 per passenger-kilometre, compared to 117.2g for short-haul aircraft. China's HSR costs are also lower ($1–21 million/km) than in Europe ($25–39 million/km) or the US ($56 million/km).
• The Shanghai Port has implemented several green initiatives to reduce pollution, including Domestic Emission Control Areas (DECAs) requiring low-sulphur fuel (less than 5,000ppm), the installation of shore power facilities to allow ships to shut down engines, and the conversion of 90% of port trucks to liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 2020.
• To avoid the high debt associated with urban rail, the 'Rail plus Property' (R+P) model used by Hong Kong's MTR allows the transit operator to own land development rights above stations, using increased property values to fund operations and expansion without government subsidies.
• Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems provide a cost-effective alternative to subways. For example, the Guangzhou BRT system cost $4.4 million/km—roughly one-tenth the cost of a subway—while avoiding 86,000 tonnes of CO2 in its first decade.

APA

JOHNSTON, L., & EARLEY, R. (2018). CAN AFRICA BUILD GREENER INFRASTRUCTURE WHILE SPEEDING UP ITS DEVELOPMENT? South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Occasional-Paper-292.pdf

Chicago

JOHNSTON, LA, and RJ EARLEY. CAN AFRICA BUILD GREENER INFRASTRUCTURE WHILE SPEEDING UP ITS DEVELOPMENT? South African Institute of International Affairs, 2018. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Occasional-Paper-292.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=JOHNSTON |first1=LA |last2=EARLEY |first2=RJ |title=CAN AFRICA BUILD GREENER INFRASTRUCTURE WHILE SPEEDING UP ITS DEVELOPMENT? |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=December 2018 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Occasional-Paper-292.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{johnston2018can, author = {JOHNSTON, LA and EARLEY, RJ}, title = {{CAN AFRICA BUILD GREENER INFRASTRUCTURE WHILE SPEEDING UP ITS DEVELOPMENT?}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2018}, month = dec, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Occasional-Paper-292.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }