Search Climate Insights Directory

The document highlights a shift in African gas extraction toward countries that have not historically exploited fossil fuels, noting that 84 percent of new pre-production reserves are located in recent entrants. It argues that these developments, largely destined for export, will increase gas production by a third by 2030 but will fail to address local electrification needs while exacerbating climate change and environmental risks.

The LUCI tool provides a five-step analytical framework to identify unintended consequences of development interventions by mapping the overlap between identity groups and impact groups. It emphasizes 'horizontal inequalities'—group-based disparities related to gender, ethnicity, or class—and how these can be exacerbated by poorly planned projects, leading to 'maladaptation' or increased conflict potential. The guide demonstrates the tool's application through a case study of solar hybrid mini-grid projects in Turkana County, Kenya, illustrating how access to electricity can create differential benefits and losses across various social and economic groups.

The report outlines a strategy to transform food systems in Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria, requiring an average additional public investment of USD 10 billion per year from 2023 to 2030. This investment, split between donors (USD 5.8 billion) and countries (USD 4.2 billion), aims to reduce undernourishment to under 3% by 2030, double the incomes of 29 million small-scale producers, and transition 248 million people to healthier diets while meeting greenhouse gas emission goals.

Ethiopia is not on track to meet the UN Sustainable Development Goals by 2030, with poverty and hunger projected to increase due to conflict, pests, economic slowdown, and climate change. The report argues that sustainable food system transformation is possible within a decade if public investment is increased by USD 4.6 billion and targeted toward interventions that provide multiple development outcomes. It highlights a critical funding gap where long-term investments for Sustainable Development Goal 2 are significantly underfunded compared to short-term emergency food assistance, which increases the country's vulnerability to future shocks.

The report identifies a significant financing gap of USD 10 billion per year needed to achieve sustainable food system transformation in Ethiopia, Malawi, and Nigeria. It argues that current funding is overly skewed toward short-term emergency assistance rather than long-term agricultural development. By investing in on-farm productivity, social protection, and climate-resilient infrastructure, the report projects that undernourishment could drop below 3% and the incomes of 29 million small-scale producers could double by 2030, all while meeting nationally determined contribution goals for greenhouse gas emissions.

Turkey has rapidly become a global exporter of military drones, specifically the Bayraktar TB2 and Akıncı models, using this technology to enhance its soft power and establish new geopolitical alliances. This shift is part of a broader quest for 'strategic autonomy'—the ability to make defense decisions independently—driven by past arms sanctions from the US and technical failures with Israeli technology. While the drone sector has provided a significant economic boost, with defense and aerospace exports exceeding $4 billion in 2022, the brief highlights critical concerns regarding the lack of parliamentary oversight, centralized decision-making in the President's office, and alleged human rights violations by end-users in conflict zones like Ethiopia and Libya.

The document examines the clash between the rural African donkey market, where the animal is a vital workhorse for the poor, and the lucrative Chinese market for ejiao (donkey-hide glue). It highlights how explosive demand in China has led to donkey shortages, illicit smuggling, and severe welfare abuses, which in turn diminish the socio-economic mobility of rural Africans, particularly women and girls. The author argues that the current unregulated trade risks damaging China-Africa relations and suggests implementing sustainability certifications, breeding programs, and a distinction between medicinal and wellness-based ejiao consumption to ensure a sustainable supply chain.

The Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) is seeking concept notes for projects in Africa that leverage local and indigenous knowledge for climate resilience. Up to five projects will be selected for grants of up to $150,000 over a maximum of three years. Projects must align with themes such as gender equality, social inclusion, resilience financing, ecosystem-based approaches, climate knowledge, and youth empowerment. Priority is given to organisations founded and led within Africa, with a strong emphasis on locally-led adaptation and the inclusion of marginalised groups.

The report finds that while global climate finance reached USD 1.3 trillion in 2021–2022, adaptation finance is diminishing in relative importance, accounting for only 5% of total flows. Developing countries face a significant funding gap, needing approximately USD 212 billion annually by 2030. In Africa, adaptation finance grew modestly by 14% to USD 13 billion annually, yet remains far below the estimated need of USD 53 billion per year. The analysis highlights an over-reliance on debt as the primary financial instrument and a critical lack of robust, adaptation-specific commitments from public financial institutions. Furthermore, it reveals a disconnect between adaptation finance and humanitarian aid, noting that the most fragile African states depend on emergency response funding because they struggle to access proactive adaptation finance.

The report analyzes how different audiences perceive the intersection of climate change and health and evaluates the effectiveness of various communication frames. It finds that framing climate change as a public health issue, particularly by emphasizing the health benefits of solutions (gain framing) and the harms of air pollution, can increase public engagement and reduce political polarization. The document highlights health professionals as highly trusted messengers who are generally willing to engage in advocacy but face barriers such as lack of time and specialized knowledge. It also notes that public officials exhibit varying levels of awareness and face institutional barriers to prioritizing climate-health issues. The report concludes with a research agenda calling for more diverse geographic data, better integration of equity in messaging, and the expansion of climate-health curricula in medical education.

The document examines decentralisation across five Eastern African countries, highlighting a recurring gap between formal policy and actual practice. While Rwanda is noted for significant achievements in inclusion and service delivery through strong political commitment, other countries like Ethiopia, Kenya, Sudan, and Uganda struggle with elite capture, central government interference, and financial constraints. The report argues that decentralisation often serves as a tool for political control or patronage rather than genuine local empowerment, and recommends deepening participatory democracy and strengthening the capacity of local leaders.

The Resilience Evidence Forum 2023 Synthesis Report outlines a multi-scalar approach to building resilience, focusing on people, communities, urban systems, socio-ecological systems, and market systems. It emphasizes the transition from top-down measurement to co-produced evidence that integrates local and Indigenous knowledge with scientific data. The report identifies critical gaps in funding for climate resilience—noting that less than $50 billion is spent annually against needs of $160-340 billion—and advocates for gender-transformative approaches, integrated health and nutrition systems, and the use of mixed-methods to capture transformative, long-term outcomes rather than just short-term recovery.

The report evaluates the African Union's (AU) first two decades, highlighting a significant gap between the creation of ambitious normative and institutional frameworks and their actual implementation. While the AU has succeeded in establishing a continental legal order and promoting multi-party democracy, it struggles with institutional incapacity, over-reliance on external funding, and a lack of political will among member states to cede sovereignty. Key areas of analysis include the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and the role of women and youth in governance. The authors argue that for the AU to achieve the goals of Agenda 2063, it must shift from a state-centric model to a people-driven organization, enhance its self-reliance, and translate its existing norms into tangible outcomes.

The document examines the 'regionalisation' of peacekeeping in Africa, noting that troops from countries bordering crisis zones now constitute a significant portion of UN and AU missions. While these countries possess local knowledge, the authors argue that their involvement often prioritises national interests and 'collective defence'—the alliance against identified enemies—over the 'collective security' goal of addressing root causes. This shift is characterised by extreme militarisation and a lack of political strategy, which the authors suggest erodes the principles of impartiality and neutrality in peacekeeping.

The document examines the nexus between climate change, human mobility, and development in Africa, highlighting that while mobility can be a strategic adaptation tool, current funding and policy frameworks are inadequate. It identifies significant barriers, including a bias toward mitigation over adaptation, a lack of institutional knowledge, and the politicization of migration. The brief recommends that development actors and national governments mainstream climate-linked mobility across sectors and adopt a diverse range of financial instruments to support people who are staying, moving, or on the move.

The document argues that while Chinese lending is not the primary cause of Africa's debt distress, specific features of the 'China model'—including lack of transparency, resource-backed loans, and the exclusion of collective restructuring clauses—exacerbate financial vulnerabilities. It highlights how these factors, combined with broader economic shocks, can lead to socio-economic instability, reduced spending on essential services, and increased risks of conflict. The brief recommends enhanced loan transparency, the adoption of legally binding reporting protocols, and improved national debt management to protect human security and development.

The document argues that a 'social mandate'—broad public support and legitimacy—is essential for the successful implementation of climate adaptation policies. It recommends that NAP teams leverage the Action for Climate Empowerment (ACE) framework, which includes education, training, public awareness, public participation, public access to information, and international cooperation. The briefing emphasizes values-led engagement, the use of trusted messengers, and audience segmentation to drive sustainable behavior change. It also provides evidence-based principles for visual communication to avoid stereotypes and connect with audiences emotionally. Case studies from Saint Lucia, Fiji, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Ghana illustrate various approaches, including the use of radio for rural outreach and visual storytelling by women to influence national policy.

The author introduces the 'double duality' framework, arguing that smugglers are simultaneously perceived as problems and solutions by both migrants and states. For migrants, smugglers provide essential mobility but pose risks of exploitation; for states, smugglers undermine border control but provide 'moral capital' that justifies restrictive policies. The paper analyzes how destination states use a 'protection narrative'—casting smugglers as villains and migrants as victims—to maintain political authority while limiting asylum access. It further distinguishes between 'facilitation' and 'exploitation' to show that not all dangers faced by migrants originate from smugglers, and that counter-smuggling measures often shift risks onto the migrants themselves.

The Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) Index 2023/24 ranks 177 countries based on 13 indicators across three dimensions: inclusion, justice, and security. The report finds that women's status is more strongly correlated with a nation's peace, democratic health, and climate change preparedness than with its GDP. It highlights extreme global disparities, with Denmark ranking highest and Afghanistan lowest. The report also examines the escalating threat of political violence against women—physical, sexual, and digital—and provides subnational analyses for Colombia and Ethiopia to show how women's status varies within national borders.

The document outlines strategies for extending electricity access to 'last mile' remote communities—including indigenous, displaced, and mountain populations—using decentralized renewable energy (DRE). It argues that off-grid solutions, particularly solar PV and hybrid systems, are often more cost-effective than grid extension in low-demand, remote areas. The guide emphasizes community engagement, local capacity building, and the transition from grant-based funding to market-based impact investment to ensure long-term sustainability. It details various delivery mechanisms, such as solar co-operatives and micro-utilities, and provides comparative data on renewable technologies and government program models from Brazil, Malaysia, and Canada.