Search Climate Insights Directory

This document is an introductory report from the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) regarding a conference held on 31 May 2011. The conference aimed to analyze the 2011 North African revolutions and generate policy responses to peace and security challenges to support democratization and human security in the region.

The document examines the rapid rate of urbanisation across Africa, highlighting that while urban growth can drive economic diversification, unplanned growth in developing economies often leads to slums and infrastructure stress. It focuses on Nigeria, where rapid urban population growth has outpaced planning, resulting in high slum residency and significant shortages in housing, water, and sanitation. The briefing notes that Nigeria's inability to manage this growth and integrate its large informal economy limits national economic contributions and increases the risk of political and social instability.

The briefing discusses the NPT Preparatory Committee meeting held from 4 to 15 May 2009 in New York, which serves as the final session before the 2010 Review Conference. It details the NPT's three pillars—non-proliferation, disarmament, and peaceful use of nuclear energy—and emphasizes Africa's commitment to these goals through the Treaty of Pelindaba. The document highlights the leadership of Zimbabwe's Ambassador Boniface Chidyausiku as chair of the 2009 meeting and urges African states to support the total elimination of nuclear arsenals and the entry into force of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.

The report argues that the success of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) depends heavily on improving the efficiency, capacity, and security of Africa's maritime transport and port infrastructure to facilitate the movement of goods across the continent.

The report details the outcomes of a conference held in Jinja, Uganda, from 11 to 13 March 2009, focusing on the impact of HIV and AIDS on African armed forces. It argues that the pandemic threatens regional security and development, specifically noting that recruitment policies based on health factors can lead to "grossly diminished soldier’s combat readiness." The participants recommend the creation of an African Network on HIV and AIDS in the military to spearhead a unified policy (CCAAHM) covering recruitment, the care of HIV-positive soldiers, and guidelines for peacekeeping deployments. Key proposed actions include adopting a common policy for control and prevention, integrating voluntary counseling and testing (VCCT) in pre-deployment, and conducting human rights assessments of HIV-related military policies.

The document examines the escalating border dispute between Ethiopia and Sudan over the al-Fashaga area, noting its intersection with tensions over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). It highlights how internal political instability in both countries and conflicting claims over land sovereignty hinder negotiations, warning that failure to de-escalate could lead to proxy wars and further regional destabilisation.

The document examines the conflict between Ethiopia and Egypt over the proposed Great Millennium Dam, a project with a 5,250 megawatt capacity. Egypt has expressed concerns regarding its water quota and has threatened military action, while Ethiopia links Egyptian access to the site to the signing of the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA). The dispute is framed by the CFA, which is supported by several upper Nile Basin states but rejected by Egypt, and is further complicated by the independence of Southern Sudan.

The Institute for Security Studies (ISS) cautions the UK government against proposing changes to human rights laws to facilitate counter-terrorism, arguing that such 'heavy-handed tactics' often fuel terrorist recruitment. Citing examples from Nigeria, Kenya, Algeria, Egypt, and Chad, the letter asserts that state abuses provide justification for groups like Boko Haram and al-Shabaab. The ISS highlights that in Africa, militant attacks rose from 171 in 2009 to 738 in 2015, suggesting that neglecting the rule of law undermines intelligence gathering and international cooperation. The document concludes that upholding human rights is a strategic necessity for defeating groups like al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.

The document details the career of Salim Ahmed Salim, a Tanzanian diplomat who played a central role in the decolonisation of Africa and the fight against apartheid. It examines his strategic work within the UN Special Committee on Decolonization, his efforts to secure material support for liberation movements, and his tenure as Secretary-General of the OAU (1989–2001). The text highlights his contributions to the institutional transformation of the OAU into the African Union, his advocacy for 'non-indifference' in the face of genocide and war crimes, and his work in conflict resolution in regions such as Darfur and the Great Lakes.

The document examines the establishment of the Green Climate Fund (GCF) following the 2010 Cancun and 2011 Durban agreements. It critiques the World Bank's historical role in climate finance, citing conflicts of interest, a bias toward mitigation over adaptation, and the promotion of private sector instruments that may marginalise the poorest nations. The author advocates for the GCF to maintain a distinct legal personality, an independent secretariat, and a grant-based approach to adaptation to ensure direct access for developing countries, particularly in Africa.

The report analyzes the evolution of the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) from its inception in 2000 through the 2006 Beijing summit. It argues that FOCAC provides a 'win-win' framework for South-South cooperation, contrasting China's pragmatic, non-interference approach with Western conditional aid. The document details China's economic model, its strategic need for African raw materials (particularly oil), and the specific financial commitments made to African infrastructure, health, and debt relief. It concludes that while China offers significant opportunities for growth, African nations must improve their own governance and strategic coordination to maximize these benefits.

The briefing argues that climate justice cannot be achieved without protecting environmental defenders, who face increasing violence, harassment, and criminalization, often linked to land conflicts and climate-damaging industries. It proposes specific enhancements to the Action for Climate Empowerment (ACE) Action Plan and the Global Stocktake (GST) of the Paris Agreement to integrate human rights protections. Additionally, it calls for a protocol to ensure that countries hosting COPs guarantee freedom of association and assembly for civil society and Indigenous representatives.

The research paper analyzes how the AKP government transitioned Turkey's role in Syria from a projected 'humanitarian superpower' to a state focused on national security. It examines the tension between 'humanitarian diplomacy'—which emphasizes Islamic identity and solidarity—and the 'securitisation' of Kurdish autonomy in Northern Syria. The author argues that Turkey's foreign policy is deeply linked to its domestic political shift toward authoritarianism and the need to appease nationalist allies, ultimately prioritizing state security over human security.

The research finds that while Libyan arms significantly enhanced the military capacity of insurgents in Mali and the Sinai, the overall proliferation was less destabilizing and widespread than initially feared, abating after 2013 due to international interventions and increased domestic demand within Libya.

The research paper examines the 'triangular drama' between Israel, Transjordan, and the UN during the 1949 armistice negotiations. It argues that while official talks occurred at Rhodes under UN Acting Mediator Ralph Bunche, the substantive agreements were reached through secret bilateral channels in Jerusalem and Shuneh. Israel exploited a significant power asymmetry, using military 'facts on the ground' (such as Operation Uvda) and direct blackmail regarding Iraqi troop withdrawals to coerce Transjordan into conceding strategic territory. The author contends that Ralph Bunche, acting as a 'weak mediator' without the support of Great Powers, allowed these secret talks to proceed to expedite the mission, ultimately granting international legitimacy to a treaty negotiated through coercion. The document concludes that the lack of a strong third party to counterbalance Israel's power established a precedent of unsustainable peace in the region.

The report examines the discovery of natural gas in the Eastern Mediterranean, focusing on the competing claims of the Republic of Cyprus, Turkey, and Turkish Cypriots. It analyzes the commercial viability of export options—such as LNG plants and pipelines to Turkey or Europe—against a backdrop of falling global gas prices due to the US shale revolution. The text argues that while hydrocarbons offer a potential 'win-win' for regional stability, their development is currently hostage to long-standing political conflicts, particularly the Cyprus problem and strained Israeli-Turkish relations. It also explores the specific challenges facing Lebanon in becoming a gas province and the role of global energy governance and major players like Russia and the EU in shaping the region's energy future.

The research examines nine donor-supported active citizenship programs implemented between 2010 and 2015 in Iraq, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, and Tunisia. The authors argue that these programs, primarily funded by the US and Europe, employ a 'neo-liberalization of citizenship' approach that emphasizes formal participation and technical skill-building over political dissent and social mobilization. Through interviews with approximately 250 activists, the study finds a significant gap between the normative, Western-inspired training modules and the actual political constraints in the MENA region, such as secretive decision-making, unreliable judicial systems, and the dominance of informal power networks. The paper concludes that these programs risk bolstering the legitimacy of non-democratic regimes by encouraging tokenistic engagement and disconnecting activists from their local communities.

The study argues that while rising food prices create economic grievances, these only translate into urban unrest if societal organizations—such as civil society organizations (CSOs) and political parties—are present to provide mobilization structures and frame grievances. Using data from 41 African countries, the author finds that state repression of these organizations generally decreases the probability of unrest. Interestingly, the highest risk of unrest occurs in moderately repressive regimes that still allow some organizational activity, rather than in completely open societies, where citizens may prefer voting over protesting or where organizations provide alternative coping mechanisms.

The authors argue that non-violent direct action is more effective at undermining autocracies and significantly more likely to lead to democratic transitions than violent conflict. Using a multinomial logit model for the period 1900-2004, the study finds that non-violent campaigns substantially increase the probability of democratization, particularly when the state has a high proportion of democratic neighbors. Conversely, violent direct action is less effective at destabilizing regimes overall and makes transitions to new autocracies relatively more likely. The research suggests that non-violence promotes power dispersion and elite defection, whereas violence tends to centralize power and justify further repression.

The document examines the intersection of global climate goals, EU energy security, and the emergence of the Eastern Mediterranean as a potential gas hub. It analyzes the role of natural gas as a 'bridging fuel' for the EU, the geopolitical use of energy by Russia and Iran, and the commercial and political obstacles facing gas development in Israel, Cyprus, and Egypt, particularly following the discovery of the Zohr field.