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The document examines the Global Compact on Refugees (GCR) and the Comprehensive Refugee Response Framework (CRRF), arguing that while they offer a progressive 'whole of society' approach to refugee integration, their non-binding nature and flawed funding mechanisms hinder their effectiveness in Africa. It highlights a gap between liberal policy and implementation in South Africa and the failure of the CRRF in Tanzania due to financial burdens. The authors advocate for a results-based management system and a stronger link between security, development, and migration to address the root causes of displacement on the continent.

The report describes Africa as a 'resilient but marginal player' in a global order where multilateralism is eroding and power is shifting toward a polycentric model. It identifies key barriers to African agency, including structural economic dependence, internal political fragmentation among 55 diverse states, and limited capacity at UN missions. The authors argue that Africa can increase its leverage by pooling resources through the African Union (AU) and Regional Economic Communities (RECs), and by leveraging the 'Big 5' powers (Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, and Ethiopia) to unify continental positions. While the report notes the risks of great power competition—specifically the 'new Scramble for Africa'—it highlights that African states have successfully exercised agency in relations with China through the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

The document examines the trade-offs for African nations joining the AIIB, noting that while the bank offers a new source of low-cost finance to address an annual infrastructure deficit of $68 to $108 billion, its lack of technical capacity-building and specific instruments for low-income countries outside Asia limits its appeal. It concludes that middle-income African countries are better positioned to benefit from membership than low-income countries.

The report assesses Ethiopia's development path to 2040, highlighting a tension between rapid GDP growth and lagging human development indicators. While the country has seen significant improvements in health and agricultural yields, it faces critical bottlenecks in primary education completion, basic infrastructure (WASH), and gender equality. The analysis warns that political liberalisation may create short-term instability due to ethnic factionalism and an 'anocratic' regime type. The report contrasts a positive 'Abiynomics' scenario, driven by targeted investments in human capital and governance, with a 'Dark Days' scenario characterized by political regression and economic decline.

The Red Sea is a complex geopolitical environment characterized by state-to-state rivalries, external military presence, and a perceived gap in maritime management. While shipping has remained largely undisrupted, threats persist from the war in Yemen, piracy, and violent extremist organizations. The report argues that existing regional organizations like IGAD and the AU have limited mandates or internal challenges, suggesting that new cooperative mechanisms should start with narrow mandates, prioritize information sharing, and include all relevant littoral and non-littoral stakeholders to avoid duplication and respect national sovereignty.

The August 2019 Peace & Security Council Report examines the African Union's (AU) struggle to define 'unconstitutional changes of government' in the context of popular uprisings in Algeria and Sudan. It highlights the risks of increasing foreign military presence, particularly in the Horn of Africa, and the resulting rivalry between global powers like the US and China. The report also advocates for the inclusion of women in Sudan's peace process and warns of potential political instability in Côte d’Ivoire ahead of the 2020 elections. Finally, it discusses the limited access civil society organizations have to AU and regional economic community structures.

The report identifies critical gender disparities in Ethiopia that affect climate vulnerability and adaptive capacity, specifically regarding roles in agriculture, access to natural resources, and participation in decision-making. It proposes 13 overarching recommendations to integrate gender considerations into the NAP-ETH, ranging from addressing social norms and improving access to information to institutionalizing gender-responsive resource allocation and monitoring systems.

The African Peer Review Mechanism, established in 2003 to improve governance through voluntary peer review, experienced a period of decline between 2008 and 2016 marked by leadership vacancies and financial mismanagement. While recent reforms under the 'Three Rs Strategy' and the 2018 incorporation into the African Union as a specialised agency have revitalized the process and expanded its mandate to track Agenda 2063 and the UN Sustainable Development Goals, significant hurdles remain. These include the failure to release country reports on time, a lack of political will to 'name and shame' poor performers, and dwindling attendance of heads of state at forums.

The report details how developing countries approach investment treaty negotiations, highlighting a trend toward renegotiating outdated agreements and the use of model treaties. It identifies the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and investment authorities as the primary leads in negotiations and provides a detailed mapping of ratification processes across various nations.

The document reports that 1.05 billion people remained at the highest risk of cooling insecurity in 2019, down from 1.1 billion in 2018. It identifies the 'Critical 9' countries with the largest populations at high risk, including India, China, and Nigeria, and notes that China and India have already developed National Cooling Plans, while Brazil, Nigeria, and Bangladesh are currently developing them.

The paper argues that Africa can leapfrog into sustainable development by learning from China's infrastructure successes and failures. It highlights the 'Avoid-Shift-Improve' framework for transportation and examines case studies in high-speed rail, automated ports, and urban mass transit to suggest low-carbon alternatives to road-based development.

The document examines the shift in Africa's debt structure toward non-concessional and domestic loans, identifying drivers such as commodity price shocks and fiscal deficits. It assesses the debt-carrying capacity of various African nations using IMF and World Bank frameworks, noting that several countries are in debt distress or at high risk. The briefing details current coping mechanisms, including the issuance of long-term Eurobonds and novel financial products, and recommends enhancing domestic revenue mobilization, economic diversification, and the establishment of autonomous debt management offices.

The document analyzes the similarities and differences between China's engagement with Africa via the Forum on China–Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) and with Arab states via the China–Arab States Cooperation Forum (CASCF). It finds that while China–Arab relations are characterized by deeper economic and energy ties, China–Africa relations are more robust in terms of cultural diplomacy, people-to-people exchanges, and military engagement. The author highlights how China uses Africa as a testing ground for foreign policy initiatives and notes potential frictions in the Horn of Africa where Chinese and Gulf state interests overlap.

At its 21st meeting in October 2018, the GCF Board approved 19 new projects and programmes totaling USD 1.04 billion in GCF investment to support over USD 4 billion in climate action across more than 50 countries. The Board also accredited 16 new entities, appointed the World Bank as the Fund's Trustee, and launched the process for the GCF's first formal replenishment to be concluded by October 2019. Governance updates included the establishment of a Performance Oversight Committee and the appointment of Javier Manzanares as Executive Director ad interim.

The document examines the increase in sovereign debt across Africa, specifically focusing on the role of Chinese financing and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It challenges the notion that China is 'trapping' African nations, noting that African governments actively seek these loans to address an annual infrastructure financing deficit of approximately $93 billion and to compensate for declining commodity prices. However, it highlights significant risks, including the opacity of loan terms, the potential for corruption, and the impact of debt servicing on public spending. The author recommends greater transparency from both China and African governments, and a stronger link between debt-funded projects and concrete local benefits.

The document analyzes the BRICS' dual strategy of pursuing 'inside reforms' of the IMF and World Bank while establishing 'outside' alternatives like the New Development Bank (NDB) and Contingent Reserve Arrangement (CRA). It finds that while emerging markets gained some voting power, many developing countries, including several in Africa, saw their shares decrease. The paper highlights a disconnect between the BRICS' collective 'African agenda' and the individual bilateral strategies of its members, recommending a dedicated BRICS-Africa strategy and formal coordination with the African Union.

The document analyzes the engagement of China, Japan, and India in East Africa, particularly Kenya and Tanzania, highlighting the strategic importance of maritime ports and transport corridors. It details significant infrastructure projects, such as the LAPSSET Corridor and the Mombasa port upgrades, while noting a persistent trade imbalance where East African nations export raw materials and import high-value finished goods. The author argues that while these investments offer growth opportunities, they require improved governance to ensure sustainable and inclusive development.

The document analyzes the institutionalization of 'Xi Jinping Thought' and its impact on China-Africa relations, highlighting five trends: the centrality of the Communist Party of China (CPC), the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), support for UN reform, an expanded global military role, and stricter internet governance. It warns that while China offers development alternatives to the West, these trends may increase debt burdens, promote illiberal internet regimes, and increase the militarization of the continent.

The report analyzes the ramifications of the EU's January 2016 decision to reduce AMISOM peacekeeper allowances by 20%, from US$1,028 to US$822 per month. This move triggered a rift between the African Union (AU), troop-contributing countries (TCCs), and donors, while accelerating the development of a concrete exit strategy for the mission. The EU's decision was driven by donor fatigue, shifting priorities toward the Sahel region, and internal regulations regarding the use of the African Peace Facility. TCCs, particularly Uganda and Kenya, initially threatened withdrawal, though national security interests and the desire for regional stability largely prevailed. The report highlights a critical gap between donor expectations for AMISOM to 'do more' against al-Shabaab and the TCCs' claims of severe under-resourcing and a lack of local Somali security capacity to hold liberated territory.

The report analyzes the high stakes of the 2017 Somaliland presidential elections, noting that while the country has a strong democratic record, it faces significant institutional decay and increasing corruption. It highlights the role of clan alliances in determining the outcome between the Kulmiye and Waddani parties and discusses the security risks posed by territorial disputes with Puntland and the rise of al-Shabaab in the region.