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The document examines the 'climate-debt trap' facing low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where escalating external debt—reaching nearly US$6.5 trillion in 2023—crowds out climate investment. It analyzes existing financial mechanisms such as Climate Resilient Debt Clauses (CRDCs), Catastrophe (CAT) bonds, and debt swaps, while critiquing the G20 Common Framework for its inadequacy. The authors advocate for the cancellation of 'odious debt' linked to fossil fuel projects and propose that a Fossil Fuel Treaty could establish a Debt Resolution Facility to help member nations renegotiate debts in exchange for phasing out fossil fuels.

The author argues that the OACPS should move beyond traditional tariff liberalization to a 'muscular' trade and sustainability agenda at the WTO. This proposed plan includes negotiating a plurilateral agreement on green industrialization, creating a dedicated technical facility for sustainable development, and establishing a coherence platform to align trade with global sustainability initiatives like the UNFCCC and UN SDGs. To support this, the document suggests replicating EU models of strategic partnerships on critical raw materials and Clean Trade and Investment Partnerships (CTIPs), which combine private investment with public guarantees and technology transfer. The author emphasizes that such an integrated approach is essential for OACPS members—particularly Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and commodity-dependent nations—to mitigate climate vulnerability and transition toward green industrialization.

The Green Climate Fund (GCF) proposal, implemented by the UNDP, seeks USD 103.25 million in grants to advance the 'Early Warnings for All' (EW4All) initiative across seven vulnerable countries. The project focuses on four pillars: disaster risk knowledge, observation and forecasting, warning dissemination, and preparedness and response. It aims to reach millions of direct and indirect beneficiaries by upgrading hydrometeorological infrastructure, implementing AI-driven forecasting, and establishing inclusive, last-mile communication protocols, with a strong emphasis on gender and disability inclusion.

The report maps nearly one hundred agreements on critical minerals between African states and global actors, highlighting the strategic competition for resources. It identifies a lack of transparency in these deals and notes that while China and Russia are prominent, other actors like Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are expanding their footprints. The analysis emphasizes that these partnerships often reflect broader geopolitical and historical ties rather than just economic needs.

Nigeria faces a growing threat from improvised landmines in its northeastern region, with casualties quadrupling between 2022 and 2024. Current clearance efforts, managed exclusively by the Nigerian Army, rely on slow and risky manual tools like handheld metal detectors. The document argues that integrating airborne remote sensing and AI—technologies that have shown success in NATO and Harvard University experiments—could accelerate detection and improve safety. However, implementation is hindered by stringent drone regulations from the Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority and state security concerns regarding the dual-use of UAVs. The brief recommends that federal authorities grant special derogations for humanitarian trials and formalize these technologies within the national mine action strategy currently being developed with the ICRC.

The Borno Model represents a shift from militarized, coercive approaches to a more humane, locally-owned framework for managing defections from Boko Haram factions. While it has successfully processed 160,000 exits by March 2024 through inclusive family-based reception and community engagement, it faces critical challenges including severe under-funding of livelihood support, a lack of transparent operational guidelines, and design flaws that risk reuniting women with their former captors.

The document analyzes the synergy between NAPs and NDCs, finding that while most countries show partial alignment, the 2025 NDC update offers a strategic opportunity to better integrate adaptation priorities, improve data quality, and attract international finance.

The document analyzes the synergy between NAPs and NDCs, proposing a continuum of alignment from 'no alignment' to 'full alignment'. It finds that while most countries exhibit partial alignment, the timing of document submission significantly impacts coherence. It urges countries to use the 2025 NDC update to integrate detailed NAP findings, including costs and capacity gaps, to improve adaptation ambition and attract international finance.

The document analyzes the degree of alignment between NAPs and NDCs, categorizing countries into 'no alignment', 'partial alignment', and 'full alignment'. It finds that while 82% of countries with multisectoral NAPs reference the NAP process in their NDCs, most (68%) only achieve partial alignment. The briefing argues that the 2025 NDC update is a critical opportunity to use NAPs as operational vehicles to implement high-level NDC goals, improve the quality of adaptation data, and communicate financial and capacity needs to the international community.

The report examines how risk mitigation and transfer (RMT) instruments, such as political risk insurance and guarantees from development finance institutions (DFIs), help utility-scale renewable energy projects reach financial close in West and Central Africa. While these tools are critical for addressing offtaker and political risks, the authors argue they are insufficient to overcome structural macroeconomic barriers, including high sovereign debt and insolvent state-owned utilities. The report highlights innovative models, such as the re-deployable modular solar solution in Cameroon and the use of viable businesses as anchor loads in Ghana, as potential pathways for deployment in high-debt contexts.

The report finds that while most NAPs recognize the importance of ecosystems and include EbA or NbS actions, there is a significant disconnect between climate adaptation planning and national biodiversity strategies. Most countries prioritize ecosystems linked to productive economic sectors, such as forests and fisheries, while urban and mountain ecosystems remain underrepresented.

The statement criticizes the 2024 IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings, asserting that the global financial system is extractive and neo-colonial. It highlights that over half of African countries are in debt distress, with many spending more on debt service than on health and education. The document condemns IMF-mandated fiscal consolidation and austerity, arguing these measures crowd out essential social investments and disproportionately affect vulnerable populations. It further claims that the G20 Common Framework is ineffective and exclusive, favoring Paris Club creditors, and calls for African leadership via South Africa's G20 Presidency to seek sovereign debt solutions through the United Nations.

The study finds that heavy precipitation events leading to severe flooding in Sudan are no longer rare in a climate 1.3°C warmer than pre-industrial levels, with such events now expected approximately every three years. Climate models indicate that human-induced warming has roughly doubled the likelihood of these events and increased their intensity by about 10%, with observed 30-day rainfall intensity in the study region increasing by 18% since 1981. The report emphasises that these climate risks are compounded by 'risk multipliers' including ongoing conflict, poverty, rapid urbanisation, and ageing infrastructure, which have created a displacement crisis in Sudan, Chad, and Nigeria. The authors argue that the transboundary nature of river systems in sub-Saharan Africa necessitates improved international coordination for flood management and early warning systems to mitigate future disasters as warming reaches 2°C.

The document explores the 'climate-crime nexus,' detailing how environmental stresses drive rural petty crime, urban violence, drug use, gender-based violence, hate crimes, trafficking, and white-collar crime. It highlights how climate-induced economic collapse and extreme heat increase desperation and aggression, while the green transition creates new opportunities for organized crime and corruption.

The report finds that international development funding for clean air is chronically underfunded, representing only 1% of total international development funding in 2022. It highlights a heavy reliance on loans over grants, significant geographic disparities in funding distribution, and a concerning increase in funding for projects that prolong fossil fuel use.

In 2023, Global Witness documented 196 murders of land and environmental defenders, contributing to a total of 2,106 since 2012. Latin America remains the most dangerous region, accounting for 85% of 2023 cases, with Colombia recording the highest number of killings (79). The report highlights a systemic pattern of violence including forced disappearances in Mexico and judicial harassment in Asia. Mining is identified as the primary industrial driver of these killings. The document argues that indigenous peoples, who protect 80% of the world's remaining biodiversity, are disproportionately targeted. It calls for the implementation of the Escazú Agreement and greater inclusion of indigenous knowledge in global climate negotiations.

The policy brief argues that the G20's Common Framework for Debt Treatments (CF) is operationally deficient, leading to protracted restructuring processes for low-income countries. It recommends that the South African G20 presidency prioritize the suspension of debt service payments upon CF requests, the expansion of climate-resilient debt clauses (CRDCs) to all low- and middle-income countries, and the creation of G20 working groups to explore market-based solutions—such as a modern 'Brady Plan'—and statutory reforms to ensure private sector participation in debt workouts.

The document argues that South Africa should use its 2025 G20 presidency to address IMF governance and sovereign debt issues. It suggests the IMF needs formal operating procedures for 'new' issues like climate change and gender to avoid opaque, ad hoc management. Regarding debt, it critiques the Common Framework for being too time-consuming and recommends a more holistic approach to development finance to meet climate and Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) needs.

The Landbanking Group (TLG) is introducing Nature Equity Assets (NEAs), a new asset class that uses real-time Measuring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) technology to value the ecological uplift of High Integrity Forests (HIFs) and regenerative agriculture. The instrument employs a blended finance approach, providing discounted loans to land stewards—primarily Indigenous Peoples and Local Communities (IPLCs)—who repay the capital through commodity sales and outcome-based payments from corporate or government funders. Initial pilot projects are targeting the soy and cacao value chains in Brazil, with future expansions planned for Africa, Latin America, and Asia. Quantitative modeling suggests that regenerative agriculture is more profitable for land stewards than conventional methods, though standalone conservation projects currently require concessional grants to be viable.

The report examines how fossil fuels correlate with inter-state wars, militarism, and internal violence, while advocating for a Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty to manage a just transition to renewable energy. It highlights the 'peacetime-wartime continuum' of violence, noting that fossil fuel revenues often fund conflicts and that extraction sites frequently experience human rights abuses and gender-based violence. The document calls for a treaty based on non-proliferation, a fair phase-out, and a global just transition to prevent the replication of colonial extractivist patterns in the renewable energy sector.