Conflict, poverty and water management issues exposing vulnerable communities in Africa to extreme floods that are now common events because of climate change

The study finds that heavy precipitation events leading to severe flooding in Sudan are no longer rare in a climate 1.3°C warmer than pre-industrial levels, with such events now expected approximately every three years. Climate models indicate that human-induced warming has roughly doubled the likelihood of these events and increased their intensity by about 10%, with observed 30-day rainfall intensity in the study region increasing by 18% since 1981. The report emphasises that these climate risks are compounded by 'risk multipliers' including ongoing conflict, poverty, rapid urbanisation, and ageing infrastructure, which have created a displacement crisis in Sudan, Chad, and Nigeria. The authors argue that the transboundary nature of river systems in sub-Saharan Africa necessitates improved international coordination for flood management and early warning systems to mitigate future disasters as warming reaches 2°C.

• In Sudan, extreme precipitation events of the magnitude seen in 2024 are now expected to occur approximately once every three years in a climate that is 1.3°C warmer than the pre-industrial period.
• Observed 30-day rainfall intensity in the study region, which includes parts of the Bar el Ghazal and Nile river basins, has increased by approximately 18% since 1981. Climate models suggest human-induced climate change has roughly doubled the likelihood of such events and increased their intensity by about 10%.
• Climate models predict that if global temperatures rise 2°C above pre-industrial levels, the region should expect even wetter 30-day periods, making these extreme events common occurrences.
• The impact of flooding is exacerbated by socio-political factors acting as 'risk multipliers', specifically ongoing conflict, poverty, rapid urbanisation, and ageing infrastructure. Conflict has specifically led to a displacement crisis in Sudan, Nigeria, and Chad, leaving millions in makeshift shelters more vulnerable to floods.
• Effective flood management is hindered by the transboundary nature of sub-Saharan African river systems and a lack of coordination between neighbouring countries, which limits the effectiveness of early warning systems.

APA

World Weather Attribution (2024). Conflict, poverty and water management issues exposing vulnerable communities in Africa to extreme floods that are now common events because of climate change. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/conflict-poverty-and-water-management-issues-exposing-vulnerable-communities-in-africa-to-extreme-floods-that-are-now-common-events-because-of-climate-change/

Chicago

World Weather Attribution. Conflict, poverty and water management issues exposing vulnerable communities in Africa to extreme floods that are now common events because of climate change. 2024. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/conflict-poverty-and-water-management-issues-exposing-vulnerable-communities-in-africa-to-extreme-floods-that-are-now-common-events-because-of-climate-change/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=World Weather Attribution |title=Conflict, poverty and water management issues exposing vulnerable communities in Africa to extreme floods that are now common events because of climate change |date=23 October 2024 |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/conflict-poverty-and-water-management-issues-exposing-vulnerable-communities-in-africa-to-extreme-floods-that-are-now-common-events-because-of-climate-change/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{worldweatherattribution2024conflict, author = {{World Weather Attribution}}, title = {{Conflict, poverty and water management issues exposing vulnerable communities in Africa to extreme floods that are now common events because of climate change}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, year = {2024}, month = oct, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/conflict-poverty-and-water-management-issues-exposing-vulnerable-communities-in-africa-to-extreme-floods-that-are-now-common-events-because-of-climate-change/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }