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The report examines the potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to drive long-term GDP growth and poverty reduction by 2050, while noting that immediate gains will come from manufacturing and technology leapfrogging. It details the AU's suspension of Sudan following the military junta's crackdown on protestors and warns of risks including civil war and external influence from Gulf powers. The document highlights a democratic setback in Africa, where incumbents use constitutional amendments and electoral law changes to maintain power, citing Benin as a key example. It reviews AU peace support operations (PSOs) in Somalia and Darfur, arguing that military action must be paired with political solutions and questioning the neutrality of deploying neighbouring states. Finally, it discusses the AU-UN partnership, emphasizing the need for UN Security Council reform and sustainable financing for AU-led operations.

The report examines the complex relationship between the African Union (AU) and Regional Economic Communities (RECs), specifically the application of 'subsidiarity'—the principle that regional structures should lead in their own jurisdictions. It highlights systemic failures in North Africa due to the inactivity of the Arab Maghreb Union (AMU), tensions between the AU and SADC over elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo, and the AU's successful re-assumption of leadership in the Central African Republic. The document also notes the East African Community's (EAC) internal trade disputes, ECOWAS's struggle to adapt to violent extremism in the Sahel, and the general lack of civil society engagement within the AU and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD).

The paper examines the evolution of the Buenos Aires Plan of Action (BAPA) and the 2019 BAPA+40 conference, arguing that while South-South Cooperation (SSC) has traditionally focused on economic and social activities, it must now incorporate peace and security to address the realities of intra-state conflict in Africa. It highlights the alignment between peace and development as seen in the African Union's Agenda 2063, the UN's 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (specifically SDG 16), and UN resolutions on sustaining peace.

The report details how developing countries approach investment treaty negotiations, highlighting a trend toward renegotiating outdated agreements and the use of model treaties. It identifies the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and investment authorities as the primary leads in negotiations and provides a detailed mapping of ratification processes across various nations.

The document introduces ACLED data on political violence targeting women (PVTW), defining it as the use of physical force by groups with political motivations in the public sphere. The analysis reveals that while sexual violence is a significant threat, non-sexual attacks are the most commonly reported type of PVTW globally. The brief highlights regional variations in both the types of violence and the perpetrators, noting that anonymous armed groups are the most frequent offenders overall, while state forces, political militias, and mobs dominate in specific regions. The authors argue that understanding these patterns is essential for evidence-based Women, Peace and Security (WPS) policies and for achieving 'security equality' by recognizing women as active political agents rather than mere victims.

The document analyzes the precarious transition of power in the Democratic Republic of Congo following the announcement that Félix Tshisekedi won the December 30 election with 38.57% of the vote. It highlights immediate hurdles, including contested election legitimacy, the risk of violence from supporters of Martin Fayulu, and the necessity of securing the acquiescence of Joseph Kabila's regime and the military. The author argues that regional stability depends on Tshisekedi's ability to cooperate with leaders in Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, South Africa, and Angola, as well as the continued engagement of the UN Security Council through MONUSCO.

The global tea market is growing, with retail value projected to reach USD 73 billion by 2024, driven by demand in Asia and the Pacific. While VSS-compliant tea grew significantly from 2.4% of the market in 2008 to 19.4% in 2016, the sector faces challenges including climate change, poor labour conditions, and a highly concentrated value chain. The report identifies significant opportunities to expand sustainable production in China, India, and Sri Lanka, as well as in LHDCs like Burundi and Uganda.

The report analyzes 104 mining projects across 21 countries, finding that while incentives are more common in primary law than in contracts, African countries rely more heavily on contract-based incentives. Tax stabilization and corporate income tax (CIT) incentives are the most frequent, with stability periods averaging 20 years and tax holidays averaging nine years. The analysis notes a correlation between the increase in incentives and the commodity price crash of 2014–2016, while highlighting that cost-based incentives remain uncommon despite being better suited for mining investments.

The report analyzes tax incentives across 104 mining projects in 21 developing countries, finding that while legislation is the primary source of incentives, African countries rely more heavily on discretionary contracts. The most common incentives are fiscal stabilization clauses and corporate income tax breaks, both of which pose significant revenue risks. The study notes that the use of these incentives peaked in the late 1990s and again during the 2014-2016 commodity price crash, suggesting a correlation between low commodity prices and more generous tax terms.

The study finds that internal armed conflict generally leads to a net negative change in women's labour rights during and immediately after conflict. While some qualitative literature suggests conflicts can create opportunities for women's employment, this large-n analysis indicates that negative mechanisms—such as post-conflict insecurity, violence, and a return to traditional gender roles—outweigh potential gains.

The document examines the shift in Africa's debt structure toward non-concessional and domestic loans, identifying drivers such as commodity price shocks and fiscal deficits. It assesses the debt-carrying capacity of various African nations using IMF and World Bank frameworks, noting that several countries are in debt distress or at high risk. The briefing details current coping mechanisms, including the issuance of long-term Eurobonds and novel financial products, and recommends enhancing domestic revenue mobilization, economic diversification, and the establishment of autonomous debt management offices.

Virunga Power and Songa Energy are collaborating to develop two small hydro projects in Burundi with an estimated cost of USD 32 million. The partnership aims to leverage Virunga Power's expertise in contracting and stakeholder engagement to navigate Burundi's challenging regulatory environment and lack of private renewable energy precedents. Following these initial projects, the partners intend to establish a rural utility through a private concession involving further renewable energy projects and inter-connected distribution assets.

At its 21st meeting in October 2018, the GCF Board approved 19 new projects and programmes totaling USD 1.04 billion in GCF investment to support over USD 4 billion in climate action across more than 50 countries. The Board also accredited 16 new entities, appointed the World Bank as the Fund's Trustee, and launched the process for the GCF's first formal replenishment to be concluded by October 2019. Governance updates included the establishment of a Performance Oversight Committee and the appointment of Javier Manzanares as Executive Director ad interim.

The report analyzes local content policies (LCPs) used by mineral-rich nations to increase the use of domestic labor, goods, and services in the mining sector. It details various policy instruments—ranging from mandatory quotas and ownership requirements to government incentives and voluntary business initiatives—and examines their practical application in countries such as Norway, Chile, Ghana, and Brazil. The document argues that LCPs often fail when implemented as blanket provisions without clear objectives or sufficient industrial capacity. It identifies critical prerequisites for success, including institutional readiness, a favorable business climate, and a long-term vision that transcends political cycles. The report concludes that effective LCPs require a combination of quantitative and qualitative measures, robust monitoring through key performance indicators, and strong partnerships between governments, mining firms, and local suppliers to ensure sustainable economic diversification.

The report examines the 'camp economy' in Rwanda, highlighting how refugees use mobile money and informal savings groups to manage funds due to barriers in formal banking. It identifies expired identity documents and unclear 'Know Your Customer' (KYC) regulations as primary obstacles to financial inclusion. While refugees demonstrate strong business acumen, most NGO-supported livelihoods only provide subsistence-level income, and there is a significant gap in access to credit for business expansion. The document argues that including host communities in financial initiatives and streamlining regulatory requirements for refugee IDs would create a more viable market for financial service providers.

The document analyzes the volatile political climate in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) ahead of the December 2018 elections. It highlights the systematic elimination of political competition by the ruling party, deep distrust in the electoral commission (CENI), and the persistent insecurity in the eastern DRC. The authors present four scenarios: a worst-case scenario of election cancellation leading to violence, a win by the ruling party's candidate Emmanuel Ramazani Shadary (either as a puppet for Joseph Kabila or as an independent leader), a contested win legitimized by a biased judiciary, and a popular opposition victory. The paper emphasizes that the DRC's vast mineral wealth, particularly cobalt, sustains international interest but also fuels internal instability and patronage networks. It recommends that SADC and the AU maintain pressure on the government to ensure a credible election and prepare for potential wide-scale violence.

The report finds that while armed conflict fatalities in Africa are generally declining, the continent remains vulnerable due to structural drivers including poverty, youth bulges, and poor governance. It notes a shift from rural armed conflict toward urban political protests and riots. The analysis identifies a core group of countries at the highest risk of armed conflict and argues that inclusive economic development and improved governance are the only long-term solutions for stability.

The document analyzes the ineffective responses to Burundi's political crisis, highlighting the lack of coordination between the UN, AU, and EAC. It identifies the Burundian government's intransigence and the institutional inexperience of regional bodies as primary obstacles. The author recommends a strategic overhaul that leverages comparative institutional strengths, improves evidence-based research, and ensures international access to the country to prevent mass atrocities.

The document analyzes the engagement of China, Japan, and India in East Africa, particularly Kenya and Tanzania, highlighting the strategic importance of maritime ports and transport corridors. It details significant infrastructure projects, such as the LAPSSET Corridor and the Mombasa port upgrades, while noting a persistent trade imbalance where East African nations export raw materials and import high-value finished goods. The author argues that while these investments offer growth opportunities, they require improved governance to ensure sustainable and inclusive development.

The document examines Kenya's strategic shift toward an integrated Blue Economy, encompassing maritime sectors and inland water bodies. While highlighting growth in port capacity and aquaculture, it identifies critical risks including illegal fishing, environmental degradation from large infrastructure projects, and social exclusion. The author emphasizes the need for better coordination between government ministries and inclusive national dialogue to ensure sustainable development.