The Road Ahead for the DRC

The document analyzes the precarious transition of power in the Democratic Republic of Congo following the announcement that Félix Tshisekedi won the December 30 election with 38.57% of the vote. It highlights immediate hurdles, including contested election legitimacy, the risk of violence from supporters of Martin Fayulu, and the necessity of securing the acquiescence of Joseph Kabila's regime and the military. The author argues that regional stability depends on Tshisekedi's ability to cooperate with leaders in Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, South Africa, and Angola, as well as the continued engagement of the UN Security Council through MONUSCO.

• The December 30 election results are contested due to widespread irregularities, including late poll openings, ballot problems, and intimidation, which resulted in a turnout of only 47.56%.
• There is a significant risk of near-term violence from supporters of Martin Fayulu, who won 34.8% of the vote and has challenged the legitimacy of the results, alleging a deal between Tshisekedi and Kabila.
• A peaceful transition requires Tshisekedi to secure the acceptance of the military generals and negotiate an exit strategy for Joseph Kabila and his associates, potentially including immunity from prosecution.
• Regional stability and the political transition depend on cooperation with the presidents of Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda due to ongoing violence in the eastern DRC involving their forces and opposing rebels.
• The Democratic Republic of Congo possesses the richest mineral wealth in Africa, yet 80% of its population lives on less than $1.25 a day due to protracted conflict, corruption, and underdevelopment.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2019). The Road Ahead for the DRC. https://saiia.org.za/research/the-road-ahead-for-the-drc/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. The Road Ahead for the DRC. 2019. https://saiia.org.za/research/the-road-ahead-for-the-drc/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=The Road Ahead for the DRC |date=14 January 2019 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/the-road-ahead-for-the-drc/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2019road, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{The Road Ahead for the DRC}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2019}, month = jan, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/the-road-ahead-for-the-drc/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }