The Road Ahead for the DRC

This research paper analyzes the political transition in the Democratic Republic of Congo following the December 30 election, where Félix Tshisekedi was announced as the winner. The author outlines the significant domestic and regional hurdles Tshisekedi faces, including contested election legitimacy, the need for a peaceful handover from Joseph Kabila's 18-year regime, and the necessity of regional diplomatic cooperation to ensure stability.

• Félix Tshisekedi, leader of the Union for Democracy and Social Progress, was announced as the winner of the December 30 election with 38.57% of the vote, potentially ending 18 years of rule by President Joseph Kabila.
• The legitimacy of the election is contested due to irregularities reported by 40,000 Catholic Church observers, including late poll openings, ballot problems, and intimidation, resulting in a turnout of only 47.56%.
• Tshisekedi faces immediate risks of violence from supporters of Martin Fayulu, who received 34.8% of the vote and is supported by political figures Jean-Pierre Bemba and Moïse Katumbi, as well as the French government.
• A peaceful transition depends on Tshisekedi securing the acquiescence of Joseph Kabila's regime and the military generals, which may involve negotiating an exit strategy and immunity from prosecution for Kabila and his associates.
• Regional stability requires cooperation from the leaders of Rwanda, Burundi, and Uganda due to ongoing violence in the eastern DRC, as well as support from South Africa and Angola.

APA

South African Institute of International Affairs (2019). The Road Ahead for the DRC. https://saiia.org.za/research/the-road-ahead-for-the-drc/

Chicago

South African Institute of International Affairs. The Road Ahead for the DRC. 2019. https://saiia.org.za/research/the-road-ahead-for-the-drc/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=South African Institute of International Affairs |title=The Road Ahead for the DRC |date=14 January 2019 |url=https://saiia.org.za/research/the-road-ahead-for-the-drc/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{southafricaninstituteofinternationalaffairs2019road, author = {{South African Institute of International Affairs}}, title = {{The Road Ahead for the DRC}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2019}, month = jan, url = {https://saiia.org.za/research/the-road-ahead-for-the-drc/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }