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Critical Minerals Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development
The document analyzes the surging demand for critical minerals driven by the energy transition, the environmental impacts of mining, and the strategic trade policies developing countries can employ to add value to their mineral resources while ensuring climate resilience.
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Document type: Briefing
What’s new with national renewable targets?
Two years after the COP28 agreement to triple global renewable capacity by 2030, national targets remain largely stagnant. As of July 2025, the global sum of national targets has increased by only 2% since COP28, reaching 7.4 TW, which is significantly below the 11 TW required to meet the tripling goal. Only 22 countries have updated their targets, with the majority of these being EU member states revising plans through the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) process. Most non-EU updates occurred through routine planning cycles rather than as a direct response to COP pledges. Major electricity markets, including the US, Russia, and Canada, have either not set explicit targets or are unlikely to update them in 2025.
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Document type: Report
Report of the 33rd meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research
The 33rd meeting of the IAI Conference of the Parties (CoP-33) in Asunción, Paraguay, focused on strengthening regional scientific cooperation to address global environmental change. Key outcomes include the adoption of the Asunción Declaration on Water Security, Biodiversity, and Climate Resilience, the establishment of the Indigenous People Advisory Committee (IPAC), and the launch of new transdisciplinary and science diplomacy curricula. The meeting also addressed funding uncertainties for Belmont Forum Collaborative Research Actions (CRAs) and approved the appointment of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the American Geophysical Union (AGU), and the Venezuelan Institute for Scientific Research (IVIC) as Associates. A special session on Paraguay highlighted the increasing intensity of droughts and wildfires, emphasizing the need for improved early warning systems and the integration of science into diplomatic negotiations for water management.
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Document type: Report
U.S. Tariffs Hit Latin America Hard—China's Policy Response May Matter Even More
U.S. tariffs have created a mixed impact across Latin America, with Mexico and Central American countries facing the highest effective tariff rates due to their export profiles and reliance on the U.S. market. However, the authors argue that South American nations are more vulnerable to indirect spillovers from China, which is now the primary trading partner for most of the subregion. A slowdown in Chinese demand for minerals, metals, and energy products, driven by high U.S. tariffs on China, could depress regional growth and commodity prices if China fails to implement effective countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies.
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Document type: Research paper
From Commitments to Capital: Are New NDCs Built to Mobilize Climate Investment?
The report evaluates 18 updated NDCs from non-Annex I countries using a new Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) framework focused on needs, design, and credibility. While some countries have improved their quantification of finance needs and integration with national plans, the report finds that most NDCs still lack the granular cost estimates and detailed implementation roadmaps necessary to effectively signal investment opportunities to private and public capital.
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Document type: Report
Securing Africa's Future: Ring-fencing Development Financing in an Era of Security-Focused Economic Policy
The document examines the threats to Africa's development financing, including trade fragmentation, the 'securitisation' of economic policy, and high debt burdens. It proposes five ring-fencing mechanisms—public expenditure reviews, medium-term expenditure frameworks, independent funds, statutory protections, and debt-relief linkages—to ensure continuity in funding for education, infrastructure, and climate resilience. It further suggests that African governments frame development as complementary to security to leverage international financing and calls for reforms in the international financial architecture to support these protections.
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Document type: Policy brief
Pledge to uphold the Amazon Soy Moratorium and Protect Natural Ecosystems
The Amazon Soy Moratorium (ASM), established in 2006, prevents the purchase of soy grown on land deforested after 2008 in the Amazon biome. Between 2009 and 2022, deforestation dropped by 69% in monitored municipalities. Signatories argue that dismantling the ASM would unlock 1.1 million hectares for soy cultivation, potentially releasing 300 million tonnes of CO₂ within 1 to 2 years and opening approximately 10 million hectares of deforested land to soybean cultivation. The pledge calls for continued adherence to the 2008 cut-off and urges Brazilian authorities to maintain the ASM to align economic development with environmental stewardship.
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Document type: Statement
CBAM must not be used to export pollution
Carbon Market Watch criticizes proposals to compensate EU exporters under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), arguing that the actual competitiveness risk is limited and that subsidies would reward polluters. The author contends that CBAM revenue should not be used to subsidize EU producers, as this could conflict with WTO rules and encourage the export of polluting products. Instead, the document advocates for targeted financial support for clean technology innovation and the global expansion of carbon pricing.
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Document type: Statement
The road ahead is steep but not insurmountable: how South Africa’s G20 can still deliver for debt and development
The research paper outlines the challenges facing African development finance, including a significant annual financing gap and the 'African premium' on international capital markets. It argues that the G20 common framework for sovereign debt restructuring has failed African countries and proposes that South Africa's G20 presidency prioritise the creation of a Borrowers' Forum, the improvement of sovereign debt architecture via the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, and the appointment of a G20 panel of technical experts to address barriers to affordable finance.
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Document type: Research paper
Developing a pathway for food systems transformation
The briefing highlights that while food systems contribute over 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions, there is no cohesive global pathway with clear targets and timelines to reach net zero. Current efforts, such as the FAO roadmap, are deemed insufficient because they omit the need to reduce animal-sourced product consumption and lack key biodiversity targets. The author notes that while over 55 relevant targets exist across frameworks like the Paris Agreement and SDGs, they are disconnected, often non-binding, and lack financial targets. The document calls for a coordinated framework similar to the IEA's energy roadmap to integrate climate, health, and nature goals and minimize trade-offs.
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Document type: Briefing
The cost of livestock and meat consumption on human health and the healthcare system
The document details the significant health and economic burdens of meat consumption and livestock production, linking red and processed meats to millions of deaths from non-communicable diseases and highlighting the risks of zoonotic diseases and antimicrobial resistance. It quantifies global healthcare costs and suggests that shifting toward plant-based diets could save trillions of dollars and millions of lives.
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Document type: Fact sheet
Grounding Global Water Risk Assessments in Local Data
The document describes a methodology for bridging the gap between high-level global water risk assessments and local ground truths. Using Unilever as a case study, it illustrates how global tools like Aqueduct provide a necessary starting point for screening hundreds of sites, but require validation through facility manager feedback and expert consultants to correct for limitations in global modeling, such as the inability to account for human-made water transfers or local water quality issues.
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Document type: Case study
Zbrojením Evropu nezachráníme – je nutné investovat do sociální a ekologické odolnosti
The author contends that military spending alone cannot ensure European security and that current fiscal rules unfairly prioritize defense over climate and social investments. The text argues that ecological investments provide higher economic multipliers than military spending and warns that diverting resources to armaments drains capacity from renewable energy and electric vehicles. It proposes a new economic model involving a revision of fiscal rules, the issuance of new common debt, and the implementation of a minimum tax on the wealthy to fund long-term resilience.
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Document type: Statement
O potencial do PRA autodeclaratório para impulsionar a restauração florestal: vantagens, limites e recomendações
The document examines the 'PRA autodeclaratório' as a mechanism to overcome administrative bottlenecks in Brazil's Forest Code implementation, specifically the slow validation of CAR registrations. It analyzes experiences in Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Goiás, and Bahia, concluding that while the model can accelerate restoration, its success depends on robust post-execution monitoring, clear result indicators, and effective accountability mechanisms to prevent the underestimation of environmental liabilities.
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Document type: Report
Solar BRICS: Emerging economies now lead the world's clean energy race
BRICS nations now generate over half of the world's solar power, driven primarily by China, India, and Brazil. In 2024, these countries accounted for 51% of global solar electricity generation, with China alone contributing 39%. Solar power met 37% of the total increase in electricity generation across BRICS members in 2024, contributing to a total clean energy share of 70% for new generation growth. While China, India, and Brazil show strong continued growth in 2025, other members like Russia, Indonesia, and Egypt lag in solar deployment or remain dependent on fossil fuels.
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Document type: Report
GCF's investment into the Global Green Bond Initiative (GGBI) (previously known as Green and Resilience Debt Platform (GRDP))
The report analyzes gender inequalities in ten target countries to integrate gender equality and social inclusion (GESI) into the Global Green Bond Initiative (GGBI). It identifies systemic barriers—including gendered divisions of labor, educational gaps, and limited access to finance and property—that reduce women's resilience to climate change. The document outlines a strategy to mainstream gender into green bond issuances through gender-responsive policies, the use of gender-specific KPIs, and the appointment of gender experts to ensure equitable benefit-sharing and increased women's leadership in climate finance.
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Document type: Report
Desde la Amazonía hasta Belém: la lucha por la justicia climática requiere acabar con la impunidad de las grandes empresas
The author contends that the climate crisis is driven by unchecked corporate power and a global legal system that protects polluters. Using the case of Chevron in Ecuador—where the company is accused of dumping 60 billion liters of toxic waste and avoiding a $9.5 billion court-ordered cleanup—the text criticizes Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) mechanisms for prioritizing corporate profits over human rights and environmental protection. The author calls for a systemic change and international regulatory frameworks to hold corporations accountable, urging the global climate movement to center the justice of affected communities ahead of COP30.
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Document type: Statement
De l’Amazonie à Belém : la lutte pour la justice climatique doit mettre fin à l’impunité des multinationales
An opinion piece by Pablo Fajardo detailing the environmental crimes of Chevron in Ecuador and calling for a systemic overhaul of international legal frameworks, such as ISDS, to ensure corporate accountability as a prerequisite for global climate action.
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Document type: Statement
Making Care Count: A Vision for Inclusive Care Economies
Dr Basani Baloyi argues that unpaid care work is an invisible economic powerhouse that sustains global systems but remains excluded from GDP calculations. The address highlights Brazil's National Caregiving Policy and South Africa's G20 priorities as models for transformation. It asserts that investing in care infrastructure—guided by the ILO's 5R framework—would generate significant GDP returns, create millions of jobs, and address the looming demographic crisis of an aging global population.
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Document type: Statement
Renewables Bulletin: BRICS Edition
The BRICS bloc generated over half of the world's electricity in 2024, with China dominating renewable energy production. While solar and wind capacity have grown exponentially in China, India, and Brazil since 2015, progress has stalled in Russia and South Africa. Hydropower's share of BRICS renewable generation fell from 82% in 2015 to 45% in 2023 as solar and wind expanded. China leads the bloc in total renewable energy jobs, though Brazil has the highest proportion of such jobs relative to its population.
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Document type: Briefing