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G20 emission projections to 2030 improved slightly since the Paris Agreement
Comparing 2021 and 2015 projections, G20 absolute emissions for 2030 are now expected to be 15% lower, with average annual growth rates slowing from 1.2% to 0.3%. Despite these improvements, collective emissions are still projected to increase until 2030, leaving the G20 off track to meet the 1.5 °C warming limit of the Paris Agreement.
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Document type: Research paper
Coal is not making a comeback: Europe plans limited increase
Analysis by Ember indicates that placing approximately 14 GW of coal plants on standby in Europe to offset gas shortages would have a limited impact on emissions and would not derail long-term climate commitments. The report argues that these are short-term emergency measures and that the crisis is actually accelerating the transition to clean energy. It further disputes claims that Germany requires massive amounts of coal imports from Indonesia, suggesting such demand is overestimated based on current capacity and inventory levels.
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Document type: Research paper
DEVELOPMENT PATHWAYS FOR THE DRC TO 2050
The report identifies systemic corruption, poor governance, and a reliance on volatile commodity markets as primary barriers to development in the DR Congo. It argues that a minerals-led growth model is unsustainable and recommends a transition toward economic diversification, focusing on agricultural productivity, infrastructure development, and human capital investment. Key policy priorities include strengthening the judiciary, publishing mining contracts, and improving female education to manage rapid population growth.
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Document type: Report
Tackling Australia’s Coal Mine Methane Problem
Australia's coal mines are a major source of methane, with evidence suggesting official reports significantly underestimate the actual emissions. The report highlights that a small number of 'super-emitter' mines contribute a disproportionate amount of emissions and warns that proposed new coal projects will further increase these levels. It advocates for a transition to direct measurement over emission factors, the adoption of ventilation air methane (VAM) abatement technologies, and the phasing out of coal, particularly the gassiest mines, to meet climate targets.
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Document type: Report
Certification of Short-Term Debt Instruments
The document argues that the short-term debt market, valued at USD55tn, is an underutilised source of green capital. It recommends that short-term debt be labelled green and integrated into thematic investment strategies, provided it aligns with the Climate Bonds Standard or EU Taxonomy. The paper outlines various eligible instruments—including Commercial Paper, Revolving Credit Facilities, and Green Repos—and emphasises the need for a 'pure-play' entity definition to facilitate certification for general corporate funding.
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Document type: Research paper
Private Financial Institutions’ Paris Alignment Commitments: 2022 Update
The report finds that while net zero commitments from private financial institutions have grown substantially, representing 32% of global private financial assets, there are significant gaps in the credibility and coverage of interim targets. Most commitments originate from OECD countries, and there is a notable lack of detailed climate data and commitments in developing economies, particularly in Asia. The analysis highlights that only a small fraction of institutions have externally verified plans, and many interim targets cover only a portion of their total assets under management.
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Document type: Report
The Nuclear Sea-Launched Cruise Missile
The briefing outlines three primary risks of reintroducing nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCM-N) to the U.S. Navy: operational complications and costs, the 'discrimination problem' where adversaries cannot distinguish nuclear from conventional strikes, and the risk of incentivizing other states to pursue similar capabilities, thereby lowering the threshold for nuclear use.
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Document type: Briefing
Seeking Clarity on Nature-Based Climate Solutions for Adaptation
The document defines the conceptual landscape of nature-based climate solutions, distinguishing between the broad umbrella of NbS and the adaptation-specific focus of EbA. It argues that for these measures to be legitimate and effective, they must be grounded in risk assessments and robust social and environmental safeguards to prevent rights violations and biodiversity loss. The text provides practical examples of EbA across various ecosystems and outlines a framework for future implementation based on gender responsiveness, social inclusion, and biodiversity benefits.
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Document type: Guide
Lighting the Path: What IPCC energy pathways tell us about Paris-aligned policies and investments
The report identifies a critical gap between current energy policies and the requirements for limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Based on 26 'feasible' IPCC pathways that limit reliance on unproven carbon capture and removal technologies, the authors argue that no new oil and gas fields should be developed and that global production must drop by 30% by 2030. Simultaneously, wind and solar capacity additions must double current forecasts, requiring an annual investment of over USD 830 billion by 2030. The report highlights a USD 450 billion annual investment gap and calls for the redirection of capital away from fossil fuels, noting that current oil and gas industry spending on undeveloped fields is inconsistent with climate goals.
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Document type: Report
Despite Glasgow Climate Pact, 2030 climate target updates have stalled
The briefing reports that 2030 climate target updates have stalled since COP26, leaving the world on track for 2.4°C of warming based on current targets and 2.7°C based on current policies. Despite the Glasgow Climate Pact's request for governments to strengthen their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by the end of 2022, no major emitter has updated its target. The report highlights a significant emissions gap, noting that global emissions in 2030 would be twice as high as the 1.5°C limit allows without increased action. It suggests four pathways for governments to update targets: full NDC updates, expanding NDC coverage (specifically for China regarding non-CO2 gases), participating in new sectoral initiatives, or implementing policies to overachieve existing targets.
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Document type: Briefing
Fire and Water in the Western United States
Wildfires in the western United States are increasing in size and severity due to climate change and historical fire suppression, posing significant risks to water resources. High-severity fires destroy vegetation and alter soil chemistry, leading to increased streamflow, flooding, and the contamination of drinking water with sediments, toxins, and carcinogens. The document advocates for a combination of emissions reductions, active forest management—including prescribed and Indigenous cultural burns—and investments in climate-resilient water infrastructure to mitigate these threats.
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Document type: Fact sheet
McVeigh v. Retail Employees Superannuation Trust
The case involved Mark McVeigh, a member of the Retail Employees Superannuation Trust (REST), who alleged that the fund violated the Corporations Act 2001 and the Superannuation Industry (Supervision) Act 1993 by failing to provide information on climate change business risks and lacking a sufficiently developed climate policy. McVeigh argued that a prudent trustee should ensure investment management and risk disclosure comply with Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) recommendations. The Federal Court of Australia recognized the litigation as being of a "public interest nature" due to the socially significant role of superannuation trusts regarding climate change. The parties reached a settlement on 2 February 2010, where REST acknowledged climate change as a "material, direct and current financial risk" and committed to implementing strategies to manage these risks and pursuing a net-zero carbon footprint by 2050 in line with TCFD.
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Document type: Legal commentary
Steel Yourself
The steel industry faces a conflict between growth outlooks and 1.5°C climate targets, requiring demand to peak between 2035 and 2040. Delaying decarbonization until 2030 would necessitate a 50% reduction in demand by 2050 to remain climate-aligned, posing a risk to primary steel production. To avoid this, the industry must invest in zero-carbon technologies like green hydrogen, with significant opportunities for producers in Australia, Brazil, and South Africa.
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Document type: Briefing
The ‘Great Reset’ conspiracy in Australia
The report examines how conspiracy theories regarding the World Economic Forum (WEF) and its 'Great Reset' initiative have permeated Australian politics. It identifies the role of right-wing media, specifically Sky News, in promoting these narratives, which claim the WEF is a 'hidden hand' orchestrating pandemic measures to achieve sinister goals. The document details how these theories transitioned from social media to formal politics through figures like Senator Pauline Hanson and other right-wing politicians, eventually evolving to link the 'Great Reset' to issues such as net zero emissions and housing policy during the 2022 election cycle.
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Document type: Research paper
How Australia is Decarbonizing Its Premium Commercial Buildings: A Story of Ambition Loops
Australia has become a global leader in decarbonizing high-end commercial buildings through 'ambition loops'—positive feedback cycles where government regulation, industry collaboration, and market demand reinforce each other. Early leadership from the Victoria state government and the Australian Sustainable Built Environment Council (ASBEC) helped overcome initial knowledge gaps and lack of demand. The implementation of mandatory efficiency codes and transparency tools, such as the Commercial Building Disclosure Program and the National Australian Built Environment Rating System (NABERS), created a competitive environment where sustainable buildings attract more corporate tenants and investors. This model has since influenced residential and construction sectors in Australia and exported rating systems to New Zealand and the UK.
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Document type: Case study
INDIA SUSTAINABLE DEBT STATE OF THE MARKET 2021
The Indian GSS debt market experienced significant growth in 2021, reaching a cumulative volume of USD 19.5 billion, with green bonds dominating the landscape. While the market is primarily driven by non-financial corporates and focused on utility-scale renewable energy, there is emerging activity in sustainability-linked bonds and potential for expansion into electric vehicles, waste management, and climate-smart agriculture. The Indian government is supporting this growth through the Ministry of Finance's Sustainable Finance Task Force and the planned issuance of a domestic sovereign green bond in 2022.
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Document type: Report
Climate Action for a Healthy Future
The document outlines the synergies between climate mitigation and public health, arguing that immediate action to reduce emissions provides significant health co-benefits across energy, transport, urban planning, and agriculture. It emphasises that climate change is a justice issue, noting that wealthy nations and individuals are the primary polluters while vulnerable populations suffer most. The briefing advocates for systemic transformations, such as shifting to plant-based diets, decarbonising energy systems, and implementing sustainable urban design, to avoid breaching the 1.5°C warming threshold and to improve global health outcomes.
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Document type: Briefing
ÉLECTRO-FÉDÉRALISME POLITIQUES POUR ALIGNER LES SYSTÈMES ÉLECTRIQUES AVEC LA CARBONEUTRALITÉ
The report identifies four critical barriers to Canada's electricity transition: misaligned federal climate policies, lack of provincial institutional coordination, potential electricity rate increases, and insufficient interregional connectivity. To overcome these, it advocates for a combination of federal carbon pricing reform, the implementation of national performance standards, and the use of negotiated agreements where federal funding is tied to provincial governance reforms. Key recommendations include clarifying the mandates of provincial regulators to include climate goals, developing comprehensive energy plans, and utilizing the tax base rather than just electricity rates to fund infrastructure and support low-income households.
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Document type: Report
中国煤电发展 的动因和转型 切入点
The report examines why China's coal power capacity continued to grow between 2016 and 2020 despite decarbonization goals, citing both surface-level needs (supply security, heating) and deep-seated drivers (local government enthusiasm, rigid dispatch mechanisms). It argues that coal power must transition into a 'supportive role' providing flexibility and backup for wind and solar. To achieve this, the authors suggest four policy entry points: breaking path dependency by curbing local government enthusiasm, reforming electricity markets to incentivize flexibility, coordinating coal and electricity policies to ensure supply security, and adopting a reflexive, inclusive governance model.
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Document type: Report
Blue Metal Blues: Cobalt, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and China
The document analyzes China's strategic control over the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) cobalt and copper supply chains, from extraction to refining. It examines the 'resources-for-infrastructure' model initiated under President Joseph Kabila and the subsequent efforts by President Félix Tshisekedi to renegotiate contracts. The author argues that while a 'US vs China' rivalry narrative exists, the dynamics are heavily influenced by internal Congolese political needs, including electoral goals and financial gain, and notes that Chinese firms are often preferred due to their flexibility in opaque business environments.
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Document type: Policy brief