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The document explains that limiting global warming to 1.5°C will likely involve 'temperature overshoot', where targets are exceeded before returning to lower levels. Such overshoot increases the risk of triggering irreversible climate tipping points, such as the transformation of the Amazon rainforest into a savanna. The author argues that relying on large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) or geoengineering to correct overshoot is risky and uncertain, emphasizing that immediate, deep emissions cuts are the only reliable way to maintain a habitable planet. It also introduces the concept of 'positive socio-economic tipping points' as a strategic means to accelerate the transition to net zero.

The Council on Strategic Risks asserts that NOAA provides indispensable data and infrastructure for US military operations, particularly in the Arctic and for naval navigation. The agency's science diplomacy strengthens ties in the Indo-Pacific and Caribbean, while its domestic services protect lives and livelihoods from extreme weather and support the US seafood industry. The document highlights that recent layoffs of approximately 880 staff members across six offices risk undermining these security and economic contributions.

The Council on Strategic Risks asserts that USAID's investments in climate adaptation and resilience are essential for US national security, citing their role in countering Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific, preventing terrorism in the Sahel, and reducing irregular migration from Honduras.

The document frames ocean health as a critical component of U.S. national security and economic strength. It highlights how ocean degradation, illegal fishing, and competition over seafood supply chains drive regional conflict and economic instability. To address these risks, it recommends elevating ocean governance within national security directives, strengthening international partnerships to counter illegal fishing, and incentivizing private sector investment in sustainable ocean management.

The report frames ocean health as a critical component of U.S. national security, highlighting how the depletion of marine resources and illegal fishing drive geopolitical instability and transnational organized crime. It identifies specific risks in the Indo-Pacific and Arctic regions and warns that unsustainable practices place $8.4 trillion in blue economy assets at risk. To counter these threats, the document recommends elevating ocean governance in national security directives, strengthening alliances to counter illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, and expanding public-private partnerships through innovative blue finance and technology.

The report argues that while military R&D alone cannot solve the climate challenge due to long equipment lifecycles, a comprehensive approach combining innovation, policy changes, and procurement can significantly reduce emissions. It highlights the transition to low-carbon technologies in operations (such as sustainable aviation fuels and hybrid vehicles), the decarbonization of fixed infrastructure through microgrids and small modular reactors, and the need to address Scope 3 emissions within the defense industrial supply chain. The authors emphasize that procurement is the most powerful tool for militaries to catalyze clean energy markets and steer the defense industry toward net-zero goals.

The Council on Strategic Risks proposes several avenues for U.S.-China cooperation to reduce nuclear risks, including preventing the spread of tactical nuclear weapons, discussing nuclear-only intermediate-range force measures, halting the nuclear arming of cruise missiles, and improving crisis communications.

The report identifies three primary categories of climate security vulnerabilities for China: direct risks to military and critical infrastructure, compounding risks to internal political stability, and external risks that amplify regional tensions in the Indo-Pacific. It notes that while China is investing heavily in hard infrastructure adaptation and disaster response, political incentives and a lack of societal trust may undermine these efforts. The document recommends that the US government improve its predictive data on China's physical risks, use forecasting tools like wargaming, and prioritize climate resilience funding for Indo-Pacific allies to counter Chinese influence.

The Inflation Reduction Act is framed as a national security win that reduces U.S. carbon emissions, enhances energy resilience against fossil fuel volatility, and lowers the cost of clean energy technologies for global partners. It specifically supports Department of Defense decarbonization goals in aviation and heavy industry while strengthening U.S. geopolitical influence relative to China.

The briefing outlines three primary risks of reintroducing nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCM-N) to the U.S. Navy: operational complications and costs, the 'discrimination problem' where adversaries cannot distinguish nuclear from conventional strikes, and the risk of incentivizing other states to pursue similar capabilities, thereby lowering the threshold for nuclear use.

The authors contend that climate change acts as a 'destabilizing force' and 'threat multiplier' that fundamentally shapes geopolitical risks, affecting U.S. interests regarding China, Russia, and other global threats. They highlight how environmental degradation drives military activity in the Arctic and allows China to gain influence in the Indo-Pacific. Additionally, the text notes that climate-related disasters and heat extremes directly undermine U.S. military readiness by damaging installations and limiting training. The authors suggest that while the U.S. must remain vigilant against adversaries, climate and biodiversity cooperation could serve as a pillar for diplomatic engagement.

The report assesses the intersection of climate change and national security in the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK). It projects that by 2030 and 2050, intensified extreme rainfall, sea level rise, and crop yield failures will stress the regime's ability to provide public goods, potentially leading to domestic upheaval or regional conflict. Specific risks are identified for the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center, the capital city of Pyongyang, and key coastal military and commercial hubs. The authors argue that these climate stressors could lead to miscalculations in military posture, increased migration, and strained bilateral relations with China and South Korea, while suggesting that climate cooperation could offer a new avenue for diplomatic engagement.

The Council on Strategic Risks (CSR) outlines priorities for the FY2022 U.S. budget, urging investments in early biological threat detection, climate resilience within the Defense and Homeland Security departments, and the elimination of low-yield nuclear weapons. The team emphasizes the intersection of climate change, ecological disruption, and national security, advocating for increased scientific capacity in intelligence agencies and expanded funding for international climate adaptation and conservation.

This document is a preview of results from a book regarding the valuation of oceans and the economic impacts of action or inaction, focusing on the Pacific Ocean as a case study for the need for integrated regional policies to address multiple human-induced stressors.

The Australian Government committed AUD 200 million to the Green Climate Fund (GCF) for the 2015-2018 period, requesting that the funds facilitate private-sector led economic growth in the Indo-Pacific region, specifically targeting infrastructure, energy, forestry, and emissions reduction. The agreement includes a supplemental grant of AUD 100,000 and mandates that the GCF adhere to Australian aid standards regarding fraud, anti-corruption, counter-terrorism, child protection, and transparency.