G20 emission projections to 2030 improved slightly since the Paris Agreement

This research paper by the NewClimate Institute compares 2021 greenhouse gas emission projections for G20 countries up to 2030 against projections made in 2015. While absolute projected emissions have decreased and growth rates have slowed, the G20 collectively remains off track to meet the Paris Agreement temperature goals, with emissions still expected to increase slightly by 2030.

• Absolute 2030 emissions projections for the G20 in 2021 are 6.1 GtCO2eq (with a range of 5.9–6.3 GtCO2eq), which is 15% lower than the projections made in 2015.
• The average annual growth rate of G20 emissions for the decade between 2021 and 2030 has decreased from 1.2% (range: 1.1–1.4%) in 2015 projections to 0.3% (range: 0.0–0.6%) in 2021 projections. This slowdown is primarily due to new policies and updated technology and economic expectations, though approximately 25% of the change is attributed to the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on short-term forecasts.
• Specific G20 countries show varying trends: South Africa shifted from a projected annual increase to a decrease; the EU27 + UK and Japan are expected to decrease emissions faster; the US, Canada, and Australia now show a slightly declining trend; and China's emissions are now expected to peak before 2030.
• Despite improvements, G20 emissions are still projected to increase slightly until 2030, and no individual G20 country is projecting a rate of decline consistent with the global requirements to meet the Paris Agreement's 1.5 °C warming limit.

APA

NewClimate Institute (2022). G20 emission projections to 2030 improved slightly since the Paris Agreement. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/g20-emission-projections-to-2030-improved-slightly-since-the-paris-agreement

Chicago

NewClimate Institute. G20 emission projections to 2030 improved slightly since the Paris Agreement. 2022. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/g20-emission-projections-to-2030-improved-slightly-since-the-paris-agreement.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=NewClimate Institute |title=G20 emission projections to 2030 improved slightly since the Paris Agreement |date=15 July 2022 |url=http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/g20-emission-projections-to-2030-improved-slightly-since-the-paris-agreement |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{newclimateinstitute2022g20, author = {{NewClimate Institute}}, title = {{G20 emission projections to 2030 improved slightly since the Paris Agreement}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2022}, month = jul, url = {http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/g20-emission-projections-to-2030-improved-slightly-since-the-paris-agreement}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }