G20 emission projections to 2030 improved slightly since the Paris Agreement

Comparing 2021 and 2015 projections, G20 absolute emissions for 2030 are now expected to be 15% lower, with average annual growth rates slowing from 1.2% to 0.3%. Despite these improvements, collective emissions are still projected to increase until 2030, leaving the G20 off track to meet the 1.5 °C warming limit of the Paris Agreement.

• Absolute 2030 emission projections for the G20 have decreased by 15% when comparing 2021 data to 2015 projections, with 2030 emissions expected to be 6.1 GtCO2eq (range: 5.9–6.3 GtCO2eq).
• The average annual growth rate of G20 emissions for the period between 2021 and 2030 has slowed from a projected 1.2% (range: 1.1–1.4%) in 2015 to 0.3% (range: 0.0–0.6%) in 2021. This slowdown is primarily attributed to new policies and updated expectations for economic growth and technology uptake, though approximately 25% of the change is due to the COVID-19 pandemic's impact on economic forecasts and short-term emissions.
• While some G20 members show improved trajectories, collective emissions are still projected to increase slightly until 2030. No individual G20 country is currently projecting emission decline rates that align with the global rates required to meet Paris Agreement goals.
• Country-specific projection changes vary: South Africa shifted from a substantial annual increase to an annual decrease; the US, Canada, and Australia moved from expected increases to slightly declining trends; and China's emissions are now expected to peak before 2030. Conversely, emissions are still expected to increase in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, India, and Indonesia.

APA

NewClimate Institute (2022). G20 emission projections to 2030 improved slightly since the Paris Agreement. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/g20-emission-projections-to-2030-improved-slightly-since-the-paris-agreement

Chicago

NewClimate Institute. G20 emission projections to 2030 improved slightly since the Paris Agreement. 2022. http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/g20-emission-projections-to-2030-improved-slightly-since-the-paris-agreement.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=NewClimate Institute |title=G20 emission projections to 2030 improved slightly since the Paris Agreement |date=15 July 2022 |url=http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/g20-emission-projections-to-2030-improved-slightly-since-the-paris-agreement |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{newclimateinstitute2022g20, author = {{NewClimate Institute}}, title = {{G20 emission projections to 2030 improved slightly since the Paris Agreement}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2022}, month = jul, url = {http://www.newclimate.org/resources/publications/g20-emission-projections-to-2030-improved-slightly-since-the-paris-agreement}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }