Lighting the Path: What IPCC energy pathways tell us about Paris-aligned policies and investments

The report identifies a critical gap between current energy policies and the requirements for limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Based on 26 'feasible' IPCC pathways that limit reliance on unproven carbon capture and removal technologies, the authors argue that no new oil and gas fields should be developed and that global production must drop by 30% by 2030. Simultaneously, wind and solar capacity additions must double current forecasts, requiring an annual investment of over USD 830 billion by 2030. The report highlights a USD 450 billion annual investment gap and calls for the redirection of capital away from fossil fuels, noting that current oil and gas industry spending on undeveloped fields is inconsistent with climate goals.

• To limit warming to 1.5°C, global oil and gas production and consumption must decrease by 30% by 2030 and by 65% by 2050, representing an average annual reduction of 3% through 2030.
• The development of any new oil and gas fields, including those already licensed, is incompatible with 1.5°C pathways because emissions from currently producing and under-development fields already exceed the remaining carbon budget.
• Unabated global gas power generation must decrease by 58% by 2030 and 95% by 2040, meaning no new unabated gas power plants should be constructed globally.
• Annual wind and solar capacity additions must increase by 18% and 19% respectively between 2020 and 2030, reaching 350 GW for wind and 660 GW for solar by 2030.
• There is a significant investment gap for renewable energy; while 1.5°C pathways require annual investments in wind and solar to exceed USD 830 billion by 2030, current projections only suggest USD 380 billion.
• Current financial flows are misaligned, with the oil and gas industry forecast to spend nearly USD 600 billion annually on undeveloped fields, while oil and gas companies invest less than 1% of capital expenditure into low-carbon solutions.
• Overreliance on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) poses a major risk to the Paris goals due to their unproven scale and potential negative impacts on biodiversity, food security, and water resources.
• International investment laws, specifically investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) and the Energy Charter Treaty (ECT), may hinder the phase-out of fossil fuels, with potential government liabilities reaching USD 340 billion.

APA

von Kursk, O. B., & Muttitt, G. (2022). Lighting the Path: What IPCC energy pathways tell us about Paris-aligned policies and investments. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-06/ipcc-pathways-paris-aligned-policies.pdf

Chicago

von Kursk, Olivier Bois, and Greg Muttitt. Lighting the Path: What IPCC energy pathways tell us about Paris-aligned policies and investments. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2022. https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-06/ipcc-pathways-paris-aligned-policies.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=von Kursk |first1=Olivier Bois |last2=Muttitt |first2=Greg |title=Lighting the Path: What IPCC energy pathways tell us about Paris-aligned policies and investments |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=June 2022 |url=https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-06/ipcc-pathways-paris-aligned-policies.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{vonkursk2022lighting, author = {von Kursk, Olivier Bois and Muttitt, Greg}, title = {{Lighting the Path: What IPCC energy pathways tell us about Paris-aligned policies and investments}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-06/ipcc-pathways-paris-aligned-policies.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }