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Digital Transformation Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development
The document examines the 'twin transition' of digital and green transformations, highlighting how digital technologies can both enable climate action and contribute significantly to global greenhouse gas emissions. It identifies critical gaps in infrastructure and financing for developing countries and proposes five priority decarbonization levers: green infrastructure, energy-efficient operations, sustainable supply chains, circular economy models, and climate-compatible infrastructure. The authors argue for coordinated international cooperation, targeted financial incentives, and the integration of environmental provisions into digital trade agreements to ensure an inclusive transition to net zero.
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Document type: Briefing
Energy Transition Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development
The document argues that while the energy transition is accelerating, current efforts are insufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C, and the shift in energy demand will fundamentally reshape global trade and geopolitics. It highlights a significant investment gap, noting that emerging markets and developing economies outside China account for only about 15% of global clean energy spending. The report identifies several trade-related barriers, including protectionist tariffs on electric vehicles, divergent technical standards, and the persistence of fossil fuel subsidies, which reached $7 trillion globally in 2023. It specifically warns that Border Carbon Adjustment Mechanisms (BCAs) and Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) provisions in investment treaties may disproportionately burden developing nations. To achieve an equitable transition, the authors recommend reforming WTO subsidy rules, increasing financial support for local value addition in critical minerals, and coordinating the phase-out of fossil fuel production.
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Document type: Briefing
Shipping Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development
The document analyzes the pathway to net-zero shipping by 2050, highlighting the role of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in implementing technical and economic measures. It emphasizes the disproportionate economic risks for shipping-reliant developing nations, such as increased logistics costs and inflationary pressures, while identifying opportunities for these countries to become producers of scalable zero-emission fuels (SZEF) like green ammonia and hydrogen.
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Document type: Briefing
Global Electricity Trends
In 2022, global electricity generation remained dominated by fossil fuels at 61%, though wind and solar reached a record 12% share. Despite record growth in renewables, global power sector emissions hit an all-time high of 12,431 mtCO2, driven by rising demand in major economies like China and India. The report highlights a gap between current trends and the IEA Net Zero Emissions scenario, which requires a rapid phase-out of unabated coal and gas by 2035-2040.
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Document type: Report
Navigating Energy Transitions: Mapping the road to 1.5°C
The report argues that global oil and gas production must drop by at least 65% by 2050 to align with 1.5°C scenarios, warning that new oil and gas fields would either prevent this goal or create stranded assets. It finds that planned investments for new fossil fuels through 2030 could instead fully fund the necessary wind and solar expansion. Additionally, the report concludes that Europe possesses sufficient gas import capacities to meet its 1.5°C-compatible demand from 2024 onwards without relying on Russian supply.
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Document type: Report
Lighting the Path: What IPCC energy pathways tell us about Paris-aligned policies and investments
The report identifies a critical gap between current energy policies and the requirements for limiting global warming to 1.5°C. Based on 26 'feasible' IPCC pathways that limit reliance on unproven carbon capture and removal technologies, the authors argue that no new oil and gas fields should be developed and that global production must drop by 30% by 2030. Simultaneously, wind and solar capacity additions must double current forecasts, requiring an annual investment of over USD 830 billion by 2030. The report highlights a USD 450 billion annual investment gap and calls for the redirection of capital away from fossil fuels, noting that current oil and gas industry spending on undeveloped fields is inconsistent with climate goals.
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Document type: Report
THE IEA’S NET-ZERO 2050
The report analyzes the IEA's Net Zero Emissions by 2050 (NZE) scenario, highlighting its call for an immediate end to new fossil fuel supply projects and a 75% reduction in methane emissions by 2030. While acknowledging the NZE as a benchmark for 1.5C alignment, the author criticizes its heavy reliance on carbon capture and storage (CCS), carbon dioxide removal (CDR), and biomass, which the report argues could prolong fossil fuel use and cause land-use conflicts. It further notes that the IEA underestimates the cost-competitiveness of renewables and the risks associated with nuclear energy. The document recommends that financial institutions immediately cease support for new fossil fuel and LNG projects and that the IEA adopt a more precautionary approach to unproven technologies.
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Document type: Report
The EU can increase its climate targets to be in line with a global 1.5degC
The study concludes that the EU could achieve greenhouse gas reductions of -55% to -62% below 1990 levels by 2030 by scaling best practice policies from member states like Denmark and Germany. Key levers include a faster coal exit, increased electrical energy efficiency, deeper building renovations, and higher emissions standards for transport. Implementing these measures could reduce energy demand by nearly 45% below 2007 levels and increase renewable energy's share of total final energy demand to 45%, suggesting that political will, rather than technical capacity, is the primary barrier to more ambitious targets.
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Document type: Report
ALTERNATIVE TRAJECTORIES FOR DECARBONIZING URBAN TRANSPORTATION
The document argues that without major intervention, transportation carbon emissions will double by 2050. It identifies a combination of reduced passenger car demand, improved vehicle efficiency, increased electric vehicle adoption, and a decarbonized electricity grid (via renewables, nuclear, or CCS) as the necessary path to significant reductions. A case study based on a Spanish city with 360,000 inhabitants demonstrates that while modal shifts and fuel switches (like CNG or biodiesel) offer modest gains, the most aggressive reductions occur when these are paired with a transition to nuclear or CCS-equipped power generation.
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Document type: Policy brief
The importance of Carbon Management for a climate-neutral Germany
The document asserts that Germany cannot reach its 2045 climate neutrality goals without carbon management. It estimates a need to capture 3-17 million tonnes of unavoidable industrial emissions and remove 17-47 million tonnes via negative emissions technologies annually by 2045. To meet these targets, the author calls for a political roadmap, legal frameworks, and infrastructure development starting in the current decade, with up to 4 million tonnes of CO2 needing capture and storage by 2030.
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Document type: Fact sheet