Shipping Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development

The document analyzes the pathway to net-zero shipping by 2050, highlighting the role of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) in implementing technical and economic measures. It emphasizes the disproportionate economic risks for shipping-reliant developing nations, such as increased logistics costs and inflationary pressures, while identifying opportunities for these countries to become producers of scalable zero-emission fuels (SZEF) like green ammonia and hydrogen.

• The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has established a target for the shipping sector to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions "by or around, i.e. close to, 2050," including a 2030 breakthrough target of 5% to 10% uptake of zero and near-zero emission fuels.
• The transition to net-zero shipping is expected to increase maritime logistics costs, which may lead to higher domestic inflationary pressures for vulnerable, shipping-reliant nations, including Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS).
• The IMO is developing a "basket of mid-term measures" for 2027, consisting of technical measures (such as a global fuel standard to reduce GHG intensity) and economic measures (such as a global GHG levy or feebate systems) to incentivize the transition.
• Scalable zero-emission fuels (SZEF), particularly e-fuels like e-methanol and e-ammonia, are central to decarbonization, but a significant cost gap exists between these and fossil fuels, requiring an estimated $3.2 trillion in investment for the near-term transition.
• Developing countries with high renewable energy potential have a trade opportunity to produce and export low-cost hydrogen and derivatives; for example, the hydrogen industry in South Africa could contribute $60 billion to GDP and create 1.9–3.7 million jobs by 2050.
• Green corridors—specific trade routes for demonstrating zero-emission solutions—provide a framework for developing countries to access demand for SZEF and secure climate finance through bilateral funding or commercial arrangements.

APA

Criswell, E., Deyon, S., & Laffineur, L. (2025). Shipping Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development. Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs. https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Shipping-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1738070963

Chicago

Criswell, Eleanor, Sophie Deyon, and Ludovic Laffineur. Shipping Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development. Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs, 2025. https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Shipping-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1738070963.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Criswell |first1=Eleanor |last2=Deyon |first2=Sophie |last3=Laffineur |first3=Ludovic |title=Shipping Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development |publisher=Forum on Trade, Environment, & the SDGs |date=January 2025 |url=https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Shipping-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1738070963 |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{criswell2025shipping, author = {Criswell, Eleanor and Deyon, Sophie and Laffineur, Ludovic}, title = {{Shipping Trade, Climate, and Net Zero Pathways: Scenarios and Implications for Developing Countries and Climate-Resilient Development}}, institution = {Forum on Trade, Environment, \& the SDGs}, year = {2025}, month = jan, url = {https://lyrical-cormorant.files.svdcdn.com/production/assets/images/Publications/TESS-Briefing-Note-Shipping-Net-Zero.pdf?dm=1738070963}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }