中国煤电发展 的动因和转型 切入点

The report examines why China's coal power capacity continued to grow between 2016 and 2020 despite decarbonization goals, citing both surface-level needs (supply security, heating) and deep-seated drivers (local government enthusiasm, rigid dispatch mechanisms). It argues that coal power must transition into a 'supportive role' providing flexibility and backup for wind and solar. To achieve this, the authors suggest four policy entry points: breaking path dependency by curbing local government enthusiasm, reforming electricity markets to incentivize flexibility, coordinating coal and electricity policies to ensure supply security, and adopting a reflexive, inclusive governance model.

• During the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020), China's coal power capacity continued to grow, although at a slower rate than planned. A total of 144.8GW of coal power projects were approved across 27 provinces, with over half located in coal-rich regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Guizhou.
• The expansion of coal power was driven by four primary surface-level reasons: alleviating local electricity shortages (notably in Guangdong and Hunan), optimizing the generation structure by replacing small, inefficient units with larger, high-efficiency ones ('upgrading large to replace small'), meeting industrial and residential heating demands to reduce dispersed coal use, and supporting the 'West-East Electricity Transmission' strategy.
• Deep-seated factors contributing to coal expansion include the high enthusiasm of local governments to stimulate economic growth, a quota-based 'average dispatch' mechanism that protects coal plants from becoming stranded assets, and the failure of carbon markets to internalize environmental externalities due to loose permit allocations.
• The report defines the 'coal power transition' not as a simple phase-out, but as a shift in role from a primary power source to a supportive one that provides flexibility and backup capacity to the grid, which is essential for integrating higher levels of wind and solar power.
• To facilitate this transition, the report proposes four policy entry points: 1) curbing local government enthusiasm and diversifying coal-dependent regional economies; 2) reforming ancillary services and capacity payment markets to compensate coal plants for flexibility; 3) coordinating coal and electricity policies to prevent supply crises like the one seen in 2021; and 4) shifting to a reflexive, learning-based governance process.
• Specific technical transition paths for existing coal plants include 'three-linkage' reforms: energy-saving and carbon-reduction upgrades (such as biomass co-firing and CCUS), flexibility upgrades to allow operation at lower loads (below 30% rated load), and heating upgrades for centralized urban heating.

APA

施训鹏, & 杨木易 (2022). 中国煤电发展 的动因和转型 切入点. Ember. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/11/China-coal-power-transition-1.pdf

Chicago

施训鹏, and 杨木易. 中国煤电发展 的动因和转型 切入点. Ember, 2022. https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/11/China-coal-power-transition-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=施训鹏 |last2=杨木易 |title=中国煤电发展 的动因和转型 切入点 |publisher=Ember |date=May 2022 |url=https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/11/China-coal-power-transition-1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{2022, author = {施训鹏 and 杨木易}, title = {{中国煤电发展 的动因和转型 切入点}}, institution = {Ember}, year = {2022}, month = may, url = {https://ember-energy.org/app/uploads/2024/11/China-coal-power-transition-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }