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The November 2024 Warming Projections Global Update by the NewClimate Institute reports that global warming projections for 2100 have stagnated over the last three years. Current policies set the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming, while the most optimistic scenario, assuming full implementation of all announced targets, projects 1.9°C. The report highlights a critical disconnect between the escalating climate crisis and the urgency of government policy implementation, noting that while renewable energy growth is record-breaking, it is being offset by all-time high fossil fuel subsidies.

A briefing by the NewClimate Institute evaluating the impact of sectoral initiatives announced at COP28, concluding that most lack the ambition and accountability to meaningfully close the emissions gap.

A June 2022 briefing by the Climate Action Tracker reporting that progress on updating 2030 climate targets has stalled following the Glasgow Climate Pact. The document warns that current targets and policies are insufficient to limit warming to 1.5°C, projecting end-of-century warming of 2.4°C based on 2030 targets and 2.7°C under current policies.

The September 2021 Global Update from Climate Action Tracker reports that global climate action continues to lag behind the requirements for limiting warming to 1.5°C. While some countries have updated their NDCs, the 2030 emissions gap remains significant (20-23 GtCO2e). The report introduces a new rating system where only The Gambia is rated as overall 1.5°C compatible, while most developed nations are rated as 'Insufficient' or worse due to inadequate climate finance and policy implementation. It further critiques the lack of transparency and robustness in most national net zero targets and highlights the continued reliance on coal and gas in several major economies.

The Climate Action Tracker (CAT) reports that global warming estimates for 2100 have reached a record low of 2.4°C, driven by announcements from President Biden’s Leaders Summit on Climate and other pledges since September 2020. Despite this 0.2°C improvement, current projections remain above the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C limit, and a significant gap persists between targets and the policies required to achieve them.

This May 2021 briefing from the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) analyzes the impact of recent Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) updates and net-zero pledges on global warming projections. It finds that while recent commitments have lowered the estimated end-of-century warming to 2.4°C, this remains significantly above the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal, and current policies are still on track for 2.9°C of warming.

The Production Gap report by the International Institute for Sustainable Development and its partners analyzes the discrepancy between planned government fossil fuel production and the levels required to limit global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C, highlighting that current plans are inconsistent with Paris Agreement pledges.

This briefing from the Stockholm Environment Institute discusses the 'production gap,' where planned fossil fuel production exceeds the levels consistent with the Paris Agreement's temperature goals, potentially undermining global emission reduction efforts.

This report by the NewClimate Institute analyzes the participation of Nordic stakeholders in the Global Climate Action Agenda (GCAA), identifying approximately 300 international cooperative initiatives (ICIs) and highlighting seven specific initiatives where Nordic leadership could accelerate climate action both globally and domestically.

This pre-release chapter of the UN Environment Emissions Gap Report 2018 assesses the role of non-state and subnational actors—including cities, regions, companies, and investors—in climate mitigation. While the potential for these actors to bridge the emissions gap is vast, their current quantified impact remains limited and difficult to track due to data gaps.

This research paper by the NewClimate Institute examines the potential of international climate initiatives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and close the gap between current national contributions and the goals of the Paris Agreement.

The Emissions Gap Report 2016 is a UNEP synthesis report designed to assess global progress toward emissions reductions necessary to meet UNFCCC goals, specifically focusing on the Paris Agreement's targets of limiting global temperature increases to well below 2°C and pursuing a limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

This research paper by the NewClimate Institute aims to quantify the potential impact of non-state actor initiatives—such as those from cities, regions, and companies—on Germany's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, specifically focusing on the 2020 emissions gap and longer-term targets up to 2050.