Climate Action Tracker Warming Projections Global Update

The Climate Action Tracker reports that recent Paris Agreement pledges and targets have reduced the estimated end-of-century warming to 2.4°C, down by 0.2°C. While the 2030 emissions gap for a 1.5°C pathway has narrowed by 11-14%, current policies still project a warming of 2.9°C. The most optimistic scenario, assuming full implementation of net zero targets, suggests warming could be as low as 2.0°C, though this remains above the Paris Agreement limit. The report emphasizes that stronger near-term 2030 targets are more critical for reducing warming than the addition of new net zero targets.

• Recent climate action announcements, including those from the US President Biden’s Leaders Summit on Climate, have lowered the projected end-of-century warming from Paris Agreement pledges and targets to 2.4°C, representing a 0.2°C decrease.
• The emissions gap in 2030 between current Paris pledges and pathways compatible with a 1.5°C limit has decreased by approximately 11-14% (2.6-3.9 GtCO2e), with the most significant contributions coming from China, the US, Japan, and the EU27.
• Under an 'Optimistic Targets' scenario—which assumes full implementation of net zero targets by 131 countries covering 73% of global GHG emissions—global warming by 2100 could be as low as 2.0°C.
• The reduction in projected warming in the optimistic scenario is primarily driven by updated 2030 NDC targets rather than the addition of new countries committing to net zero.
• There is a significant gap between targets and actual policy implementation; the 'current policies' scenario projects a temperature rise of 2.9°C by the end of the century.
• China has established a significant milestone by announcing a timeframe for peaking coal consumption by 2025 and a gradual phase-out between 2026 and 2030, though it has not set an absolute limit on coal growth for the next five years.

APA

Stockwell, C., Geiges, A., Ramalope, D., Gidden, M., Hare, B., Fekete, H., Gonzales-Zuiga, S., Hans, F., & Hhne, N. (2021). Climate Action Tracker Warming Projections Global Update. NewClimate Institute. https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/853/CAT_2021-05-04_Briefing_Global-Update_Climate-Summit-Momentum.pdf

Chicago

Stockwell, Claire, Andreas Geiges, Deborah Ramalope, Matthew Gidden, Bill Hare, Hanna Fekete, Sofia Gonzales-Zuiga, Frederic Hans, and Niklas Hhne. Climate Action Tracker Warming Projections Global Update. NewClimate Institute, 2021. https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/853/CAT_2021-05-04_Briefing_Global-Update_Climate-Summit-Momentum.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{stockwell2021climate, author = {Stockwell, Claire and Geiges, Andreas and Ramalope, Deborah and Gidden, Matthew and Hare, Bill and Fekete, Hanna and Gonzales-Zuiga, Sofia and Hans, Frederic and Hhne, Niklas}, title = {{Climate Action Tracker Warming Projections Global Update}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2021}, month = may, url = {https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/853/CAT_2021-05-04_Briefing_Global-Update_Climate-Summit-Momentum.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }