Climate Action Tracker Warming Projections Global Update

This May 2021 briefing from the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) analyzes the impact of recent Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) updates and net-zero pledges on global warming projections. It finds that while recent commitments have lowered the estimated end-of-century warming to 2.4°C, this remains significantly above the Paris Agreement's 1.5°C goal, and current policies are still on track for 2.9°C of warming.

• Recent climate action announcements, including those from US President Biden’s Leaders Summit on Climate, have reduced the Climate Action Tracker's warming estimate by 0.2°C, bringing the projected end-of-century warming from Paris Agreement pledges and targets to 2.4°C.
• Under an 'Optimistic Targets' scenario—which assumes full implementation of net-zero targets by the US, China, and 129 other countries covering 73% of global emissions—warming by 2100 could be as low as 2.0°C. This improvement was driven primarily by stronger 2030 NDC targets rather than the addition of new net-zero targets.
• The emissions gap in 2030 between Paris pledges and 1.5°C compatible pathways has narrowed by approximately 11-14% (2.6-3.9 GtCO2e), with the most significant contributions coming from China, the US, Japan, and the EU27.
• There is a significant gap between national targets and actual policy implementation; the 'current policies' scenario, based on a September 2020 assessment, projects a temperature rise of 2.9°C by the end of the century.
• Several countries are identified as needing to rethink or resubmit their targets because they have not improved them, submitted targets that are easily met with current policies, or submitted targets that are less ambitious than their first NDC. These include Australia, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, Indonesia, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia.
• To reach net zero by 2050, the briefing outlines critical sector-specific requirements: coal must be phased out by 2030 in developed countries and 2040 in developing economies; electric passenger vehicles must reach a 95% market share in developed countries by 2030; and the cement industry must reduce emissions intensity by 90% by 2050.

APA

Stockwell, C., Geiges, A., Ramalope, D., Gidden, M., Hare, B., Fekete, H., Gonzales-Zuiga, S., Hans, F., & Hhne, N. (2021). Climate Action Tracker Warming Projections Global Update. NewClimate Institute. https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/853/CAT_2021-05-04_Briefing_Global-Update_Climate-Summit-Momentum.pdf

Chicago

Stockwell, Claire, Andreas Geiges, Deborah Ramalope, Matthew Gidden, Bill Hare, Hanna Fekete, Sofia Gonzales-Zuiga, Frederic Hans, and Niklas Hhne. Climate Action Tracker Warming Projections Global Update. NewClimate Institute, 2021. https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/853/CAT_2021-05-04_Briefing_Global-Update_Climate-Summit-Momentum.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{stockwell2021climate, author = {Stockwell, Claire and Geiges, Andreas and Ramalope, Deborah and Gidden, Matthew and Hare, Bill and Fekete, Hanna and Gonzales-Zuiga, Sofia and Hans, Frederic and Hhne, Niklas}, title = {{Climate Action Tracker Warming Projections Global Update}}, institution = {NewClimate Institute}, year = {2021}, month = may, url = {https://climateactiontracker.org/documents/853/CAT_2021-05-04_Briefing_Global-Update_Climate-Summit-Momentum.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }