The Production Gap: The discrepancy between countries’ planned fossil fuel production and global production levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C

The report identifies a significant 'production gap,' noting that planned fossil fuel production by 2030 exceeds levels consistent with a 2°C pathway by 50% and a 1.5°C pathway by 120%. It argues that these plans are inconsistent with Paris Agreement pledges and are driven by national plans, subsidies, and public finance, while highlighting the need for international cooperation and policy alignment in updated nationally determined contributions (NDCs).

• By 2030, governments plan to produce fossil fuels at levels approximately 50% higher than what is consistent with a 2°C warming pathway and 120% higher than what is consistent with a 1.5°C pathway.
• Planned fossil fuel production levels contradict the collective climate pledges made under the Paris Agreement, resulting in a global production gap that exceeds the existing global emissions gap.
• The expansion of fossil fuel production and the resulting production gap are driven by public finance, government subsidies to producers, and ambitious national plans.

APA

Analytics,CICERO,UNEP,, S. (2019). The Production Gap: The discrepancy between countries’ planned fossil fuel production and global production levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. International Institute for Sustainable Development. https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/production-gap-discrepancy-between-countries-planned-fossil-fuel-production-and

Chicago

Analytics,CICERO,UNEP,, SEI,IISD,ODI,Climate. The Production Gap: The discrepancy between countries’ planned fossil fuel production and global production levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C. International Institute for Sustainable Development, 2019. https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/production-gap-discrepancy-between-countries-planned-fossil-fuel-production-and.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Analytics,CICERO,UNEP, |first1=SEI,IISD,ODI,Climate |title=The Production Gap: The discrepancy between countries’ planned fossil fuel production and global production levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C |publisher=International Institute for Sustainable Development |date=20 November 2019 |url=https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/production-gap-discrepancy-between-countries-planned-fossil-fuel-production-and |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{analyticscicerounep2019production, author = {Analytics,CICERO,UNEP,, SEI,IISD,ODI,Climate}, title = {{The Production Gap: The discrepancy between countries’ planned fossil fuel production and global production levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C}}, institution = {International Institute for Sustainable Development}, year = {2019}, month = nov, url = {https://www.iisd.org/publications/report/production-gap-discrepancy-between-countries-planned-fossil-fuel-production-and}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }