Search Climate Insights Directory

A coalition of NGOs argues that a proposed compromise at the Intersessional Working Group on Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships (ISWG-GHG) would undermine the IMO Initial Strategy and the Paris Agreement by delaying the enforcement of carbon intensity measures for ships until 2029/2030, potentially allowing shipping emissions to rise for another decade.

The CBI Shipping Criteria provide a framework for certifying shipping assets as compatible with a low-carbon economy. Eligibility is primarily based on a vessel's carbon-equivalent intensity remaining below a specific decarbonisation trajectory for its class, reaching zero emissions by 2050. The criteria exclude dedicated fossil fuel carriers and require non-zero-emission ships to provide a Managed Reduction Plan (MRP) detailing future retrofits or fuel switches. While the document outlines adaptation principles, the shipping sector is currently derogated from mandatory resilience requirements due to existing international maritime safety standards.

The report analyzes the gap between Canada's GDP and GHG emissions, noting that while national decoupling has occurred, significant regional disparities exist. It highlights that Canada's economy remains more carbon-intensive than other developed nations and suggests three primary pathways for achieving low-carbon growth: reducing emissions intensity, reallocating resources, and accelerating the growth of low-carbon firms.

The author contends that 'technology neutral' policies like the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) are insufficient because the transportation sector is not a level playing field; incumbent fuels benefit from existing infrastructure and conversion technologies. To achieve full decarbonization, the author recommends that Congress implement a zero carbon fuel standard with a carbon intensity requirement that declines to zero by mid-century and provide direct support for electricity and hydrogen-based fuels.

The report contends that the COVID-19 pandemic exposed deep structural faults in South Africa's economy, including extreme inequality and a dependence on fossil fuels. It advocates for a 'Just Recovery' based on five principles: prioritizing health, providing direct economic relief, supporting workers over corporations, creating resilience for future crises, and building international solidarity. The authors propose a transition to 100% renewable energy by 2050, the implementation of a 'purple economy' to value care work, and a shift toward democratic public ownership to replace market-centric neoliberal policies.

India faces significant climate vulnerability, with nearly 3% of its GDP at risk annually. To meet its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) goals, India requires $2.5 trillion in investments between 2016 and 2030, yet it is currently mobilizing less than 25% of this requirement. A primary barrier to scaling these investments is the lack of an agreed-upon definition of 'green finance,' leading to confusion and inconsistent reporting across the financial sector. The document proposes a combination of international practices, a principles-based approach (aligning with national goals and net carbon reduction), and a sectoral taxonomy to create a formal definition. Such a framework would enable better tracking of capital flows, mitigate greenwashing, and allow financial institutions to better assess climate-related physical and transition risks. The authors recommend forming a stakeholder task force to develop a comprehensive green finance roadmap that includes a common taxonomy, mandatory climate risk disclosures, and regulatory incentives to divert capital from carbon-intensive sectors.

The author contends that the European Green Deal lacks necessary provisions to address methane leakage from the oil and gas sector. While some European companies have committed to a "near-zero methane" future, the author argues that voluntary efforts are insufficient and that the EU should implement enforceable regulations and performance standards for both domestic operators and gas importers to drive global reductions.

China is the world's largest primary energy consumer and energy-related CO2 emitter. While the country is on track to meet most 2020 targets from its 13th Five-Year Plan, energy-related CO2 emissions continued to grow through 2018, surpassing 10 GtCO2. The report's 'Continuous Improvement Scenario' projects that primary energy consumption will peak in 2029 at 5,400 Mtce and CO2 emissions will peak in 2025 at 10,930 MtCO2, subsequently declining to 5,010 MtCO2 by 2050. This outlook assumes the maximum adoption of commercially available energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies, leading to a power system where non-fossil sources generate 89% of electricity by 2050.

In 2019, global coal-fired electricity generation fell by 3%, contributing to a 2% decrease in power sector CO2 emissions, the largest declines since 1990. While coal collapsed in the EU and US, generation rose in China, which now accounts for half of global coal generation. Wind and solar generation grew by 15% in 2019, reaching 8% of the world's electricity, meeting the annual growth rate required by the Paris climate agreement. However, the document notes that the US transition is partly a switch to gas, whereas the EU is moving directly from coal to renewables.

The 2020 Global Electricity Review reports a record 3% fall in global coal-fired electricity generation and a 2% drop in power sector CO2 emissions in 2019. While coal collapsed in the EU and US, generation rose in China, which now accounts for over 50% of global coal generation. Wind and solar generation grew by 15%, providing 8% of the world's electricity. However, the report argues that these declines are largely due to one-off factors and that current progress is insufficient to meet the IPCC's 1.5°C scenario, which would require coal generation to collapse by 11% annually until 2030.

The author advocates for the EU to integrate shipping into its carbon market through the EU ETS, combined with a dedicated decarbonization fund and a binding carbon intensity target. While acknowledging that the EU ETS alone is insufficient, the document suggests these combined measures would stimulate innovation and provide a global example for carbon pricing in shipping. The author warns against free pollution permits, offsetting, and funding for fuels that cannot be produced in climate-friendly ways, urging the EU to lead despite the slow pace of the International Maritime Organisation.

The report details the creation of the Hong Kong Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), an open-source system-dynamics model used to project energy-related CO2 emissions and evaluate policy combinations through 2050. It compares a 'Current Policy Scenario' with a 'Decarbonization Scenario,' demonstrating that while current trends project emissions to drop from 36 million tonnes in 2017 to 22.5 million tonnes by 2050, a targeted decarbonization strategy could reduce them to approximately 5 million tonnes. Key levers for this reduction include carbon capture and storage (CCS), electric vehicle mandates, and increased imports of renewable energy from Mainland China.

The document advocates for a transition to cleaner transportation fuels in the US Midwest, highlighting the region's leadership in biofuels and wind energy. It proposes clean fuels standards as a mechanism to reduce the carbon intensity of transportation, promote higher ethanol blends, and accelerate the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs).

The report outlines a 'Reinventing Fire' scenario for China to decouple economic growth from energy consumption and carbon emissions by 2050. By prioritizing demand reduction, electrification, and a shift to non-fossil energy, China could maintain GDP growth while reducing primary energy demand to 2010 levels. Key strategies include structural industrial shifts, passive building design, multimodal transportation optimization, and a three-stage transition of the power sector from coal to renewables. The analysis suggests this transition is cost-effective, with a potential net present value savings of 21 trillion RMB.

The briefing argues that eligible EU Member States, primarily in Central Eastern Europe, should maximise the Modernisation Fund by transferring allowances from the Article 10c derogation and the Solidarity & Growth Provision. It concludes that the Modernisation Fund is more flexible and effective for energy transition than Article 10c, which has strict financing requirements and limited eligibility. The document also discusses the potential financial impact of Market Stability Reserve (MSR) recalculations on Member State auction revenues.

The Union of Concerned Scientists' comparison of ExxonMobil's 2018 and 2019 climate reports finds that the company relies on unchanged energy demand assumptions and maintains a belief that the world will fail to meet Paris Agreement temperature goals. The analysis highlights inconsistencies in how the company describes methane reduction efforts, a lack of detailed low-carbon investment breakdowns, and the use of problematic graphs to suggest alignment with IPCC scenarios. While ExxonMobil acknowledges for the first time that its fossil fuel products are part of the climate problem, it continues to emphasize uncertainty regarding the pace of the global energy transition.

The document argues that the United States, as a top fossil fuel producer with a resilient economy, must phase out extraction faster than the global average to meet Paris Agreement goals. It introduces three principles: reducing production at a pace consistent with climate protection, accelerating phase-outs in economically resilient communities, and safeguarding human rights and the environment. The authors apply these principles to U.S. coal and onshore oil, identifying the Appalachian Basin and California's San Joaquin basin as high-priority areas for rapid wind-down due to high carbon intensity, lower relative economic dependence, and significant environmental or social harms.

The report proposes a three-year plan to transition Canada from voluntary to mandatory climate-related financial disclosure by 2021, aligning with TCFD recommendations. It highlights a market failure where Canadian clean technology firms face significant capital barriers and negative retained earnings, while the oil and gas sector carries substantial undisclosed 'tail risks' relative to global carbon budgets. The author recommends updating federal and provincial laws, such as the Canadian Business Corporations Act, and suggests that Canada align its sustainable finance frameworks with emerging EU taxonomies to diversify trade and attract international capital.

The analysis finds that available clean fuels, including electricity, ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable diesel, could support a 11.2 percent reduction in average carbon intensity by 2028. Under an 'Accelerated Progress Scenario', reductions of 13.1 percent by 2028 and 16.5 percent by 2030 are achievable. The study also models the impact of electric vehicle (EV) penetration, noting that a 'High EV' scenario could reach a 15.9 percent reduction by 2030, while a 'Low EV' scenario would reach 11.1 percent. Additionally, the report estimates that credit values at $100 per metric ton of CO2 equivalent could fund EV rebates growing from $2,200 per vehicle in 2022 to $3,000 in 2028.

The study finds that while most G20 members are implementing climate policies, only six are projected to meet their unconditional NDC targets with current measures, while eight require further action.