Principles for aligning U.S. fossil fuel extraction with climate limits

The document argues that the United States, as a top fossil fuel producer with a resilient economy, must phase out extraction faster than the global average to meet Paris Agreement goals. It introduces three principles: reducing production at a pace consistent with climate protection, accelerating phase-outs in economically resilient communities, and safeguarding human rights and the environment. The authors apply these principles to U.S. coal and onshore oil, identifying the Appalachian Basin and California's San Joaquin basin as high-priority areas for rapid wind-down due to high carbon intensity, lower relative economic dependence, and significant environmental or social harms.

• To align with IPCC modeling for a 1.5°C limit (50% likelihood), global fossil fuel production must decline by approximately 10% per year; for a 2°C limit (66% likelihood), the decline should be about 4% per year.
• The United States should wind down fossil fuel production faster than global rates because it is a top producer that has already gained disproportionate economic value and possesses an economy with very low relative dependence on extraction; oil extraction profits comprise only 0.1% of U.S. GDP.
• The authors warn against relying on negative emissions technologies like BECCS (bioenergy with carbon capture and storage), noting that their large-scale deployment relies on 'heroic assumptions' regarding land availability and the carbon cycle.
• The first guiding principle suggests prioritizing the phase-out of the most carbon-intensive and costly fuels, implying that coal should be phased out fastest, followed by oil and then gas.
• The second principle advocates for accelerating the phase-out in communities with higher economic resilience—those with diversified economies and lower dependence on extraction—to allow more time for a managed transition in less resilient areas.
• The third principle prioritizes the rapid wind-down of extraction in areas where there are significant conflicts with human rights, Indigenous rights, public health, or high-conservation ecosystems.
• In the coal case study, the Appalachian Basin is identified as a priority for rapid phase-out because it has higher extraction costs, low regional economic dependence (coal is 2% of employment and 8% of economic activity), and high rates of mine accidents and environmental damage from mountaintop removal.
• In the oil case study, California's San Joaquin basin is a primary candidate for rapid phase-out due to extremely high GHG intensity (over 700 kg CO2e per barrel in the Midway Sunset field), low local GDP dependence (3%), and disproportionate pollution burdens on communities of color.
• The Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico is highlighted as a priority for restriction because current expansions of oil production are inconsistent with climate limits and create 'carbon lock-in'.
• The U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) has the authority to implement these principles on federal lands, which produce 40% of all U.S. coal, over one-fifth of all oil, and about one-sixth of all gas.

APA

Koski, J., Kartha, S., & Erickson, P. (2019). Principles for aligning U.S. fossil fuel extraction with climate limits. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/principles-for-aligning-fossil-fuel-extraction-w-climate-limits.pdf

Chicago

Koski, Jessica, Sivan Kartha, and Peter Erickson. Principles for aligning U.S. fossil fuel extraction with climate limits. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2019. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/principles-for-aligning-fossil-fuel-extraction-w-climate-limits.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Koski |first1=Jessica |last2=Kartha |first2=Sivan |last3=Erickson |first3=Peter |title=Principles for aligning U.S. fossil fuel extraction with climate limits |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=February 2019 |url=https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/principles-for-aligning-fossil-fuel-extraction-w-climate-limits.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{koski2019principles, author = {Koski, Jessica and Kartha, Sivan and Erickson, Peter}, title = {{Principles for aligning U.S. fossil fuel extraction with climate limits}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2019}, month = feb, url = {https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/principles-for-aligning-fossil-fuel-extraction-w-climate-limits.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }