Search Climate Insights Directory

The IMF's October 2015 Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa describes a 'gloomy picture' for the region driven by falling commodity and oil prices, high energy costs, and a weak global financial environment. South Africa is highlighted as having the worst growth projection among its middle-income peers, with its economic performance hindered by critical electricity supply failures, poor export growth despite currency depreciation, and social unrest. The IMF recommends fiscal adjustments, currency depreciation, and long-term investments in productivity-enhancing infrastructure and education to counter these trends.

The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) analysis finds that two-thirds of U.S. states may be exposing electricity consumers to financial risks due to overreliance on natural gas. These risks include price volatility, potential carbon pricing costs, and the possibility of stranded assets such as underused plants and pipelines. The report rates states across five categories, identifying Florida as the only state with a "High" risk rating in all five. To mitigate these risks, the report advocates for prioritizing renewable energy and energy efficiency over natural gas as a primary solution for carbon reduction under the federal Clean Power Plan.

The Union of Concerned Scientists analyzed 50 U.S. states to identify those at high risk of natural gas overreliance in the power sector. The analysis uses five metrics: the share of in-state electricity production from natural gas in 2014, the increase in that share from 2008 to 2014, the share of new capacity being built from natural gas (2014–2017), total projected natural gas capacity in 2017, and 2013 power sector carbon dioxide emissions. The report highlights that excessive reliance on natural gas exposes ratepayers to fuel price volatility and the risk of 'stranded assets' from infrastructure that may become underused or abandoned. It also notes that a shift from coal to gas is insufficient for long-term climate goals due to continued significant emissions upon combustion.

The report examines the transition of the U.S. power sector from coal to natural gas, noting that while this shift provides immediate benefits, it introduces risks such as price volatility, methane leakage, and potential 'stranded assets'. Using the National Energy Modeling System, the analysis compares a 'Business as Usual' scenario with a 'Carbon Standard plus Renewables and Efficiency Policies' scenario. The findings suggest that the latter would reduce power plant carbon emissions by 70 percent below 2005 levels by 2040, lower consumer energy bills, and provide significant net societal benefits, reaching nearly $170 billion by 2040.

The document serves as a technical guide for navigating the transition between various iterations of South African environmental legislation, including the Environment Conservation Act (ECA) and the National Environmental Management Act (NEMA). It details how pending applications and unlawfully commenced activities (Section 24G) are treated when the listed activities they pertain to have changed, been repealed, or been re-worded in newer regulations such as GNR 982. The guide includes extensive cross-reference tables mapping old listed activities to their current equivalents in GNR 983, 984, and 985, while noting that some activities are now governed by the National Environmental Management: Waste Act (NEMWA).

The report analyzes how the EU 28 can decrease its reliance on natural gas imports through cost-effective energy efficiency and renewable energy deployment across the buildings, industry, and energy supply sectors. It argues that these measures can reduce the share of natural gas in primary energy demand to 16% by 2030, significantly outperforming the European Commission's proposed 2030 framework.

The document outlines how the U.S. economy can benefit from reducing greenhouse gas emissions in electric generation, electricity consumption, passenger vehicles, natural gas, and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). It highlights cost savings for consumers and businesses, the decreasing cost of renewable energy and electric vehicle batteries, and the potential for increased industry revenues through methane leak reduction.

The document argues that Dr. Charles R. Frank Jr.'s analysis of electricity technology costs is based on outdated and methodologically flawed assumptions. Amory Lovins asserts that updating nine key variables—including capital costs and capacity factors for solar and wind power—would reverse Frank's conclusions. Lovins specifically critiques the use of national average costs, which he claims are inflated by atypical projects and do not reflect modern competitive practice.

The analysis compares a 'No-Policy' scenario with a 'Policy Proposal' scenario for 2020, focusing on the upstream emissions from the production, processing, and transport of fuels. Under the base case using EPA figures, the policy proposal is projected to increase total upstream greenhouse gas emissions by 9.9 million metric tons (MMT) of CO2e, consisting of a 9.6 Tg increase in CO2 and a 0.3 Tg CO2e increase in methane. A sensitivity 'high case', which assumes non-hydraulic fracturing methane emissions are twice the EPA's 2011 reports, projects a total increase of 16.9 MMT CO2e. The document notes that upstream CO2 emissions are higher for natural gas (ratio of 0.108 to stack CO2) than for coal (ratio of 0.0193 to stack CO2).

The U.S. electricity sector is shifting from coal to natural gas, with natural gas projected to account for nearly two-thirds of electricity by 2050 if current trends continue. However, this transition risks generating up to three times the carbon emissions recommended by the National Research Council (NRC) to limit climate change. While natural gas provides near-term public health benefits and supports grid reliability for variable renewables, it remains a fossil fuel that emits carbon dioxide and leaks methane. To meet the NRC's carbon budget, the U.S. must increase the share of renewable energy in the power supply to 25 percent by 2025 and 80 percent by 2050.

The document describes a water resource systems model for the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint, Alabama–Coosa–Tallapoosa, and Tombigbee River basins. The model integrates electricity generation, agricultural, and municipal water use to assess impacts on streamflow and water temperatures, specifically addressing thermal pollution from power plant cooling. Validation against 1980–2010 data shows the model robustly represents monthly average streamflow and water temperatures.

The study analyzes the impact of partial CCS deployment in Europe by 2030, categorizing countries as pioneers or laggards based on their R&D projects and national roadmaps. Using a dispatch model, the authors find that the economic outcomes of pioneering are heterogeneous: while electricity suppliers in Poland, the UK, and the Netherlands may see increased producer surpluses, consumers in the UK could face higher wholesale prices due to the high cost of gas-fired CCS. Conversely, Romania is projected to experience lower wholesale prices and increased domestic production. The results suggest that being a pioneer does not automatically guarantee an advantage, as benefits are unevenly distributed between producers and consumers.

The report argues that replacing coal with natural gas is insufficient to meet U.S. climate goals due to continued CO2 emissions and methane leakage. It highlights risks including water contamination from fracking, price volatility, and the potential to crowd out renewables. The authors advocate for a transition to a system where renewables and efficiency provide 80% of electricity by 2050.

The report analyzes the intersection of the U.S. electricity sector, water resources, and climate change, arguing that current power generation is vulnerable to water scarcity and high temperatures. Through modeling of four scenarios—Business as Usual, Renewables-and-Efficiency, CCS-and-Nuclear, and a general Carbon Budget—the authors find that a transition toward renewable energy and energy efficiency can drastically reduce both carbon emissions and water withdrawals and consumption. Conversely, low-carbon options like nuclear power and carbon capture and storage (CCS) remain water-intensive. The report provides a set of "water-smart criteria" for decision-makers to enhance the resilience of the U.S. power grid in a warming world.

The document examines the structure and consequences of energy subsidies in Malaysia, noting that they disproportionately benefit high-income groups and create significant fiscal and environmental burdens. It details the mechanisms used to subsidize petroleum and electricity, the failures of the Subsidy Rationalisation Programme, and provides a framework for transitioning to market-based pricing while mitigating social impacts.

The document analyzes the systemic failure of South Africa's energy sector, which culminated in national rolling blackouts in 2007 and 2008. It argues that the crisis resulted from a gap between the ambitious goals of the 1998 White Paper—which sought to introduce competition and Independent Power Producers (IPPs)—and the actual implementation of these reforms. The study highlights how the government's decision to limit Eskom's autonomous planning and the failure to establish a functional framework for IPPs left the country without sufficient generation capacity as demand grew. It also examines the failed attempt to restructure the distribution sector through Regional Electricity Distributors (REDs) and the financial underpricing of electricity that discouraged new investment.

The report establishes a reference case for greenhouse gas emissions in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) from 1990 to 2030. It identifies agriculture as the largest non-LULUCF emitting sector and notes a significant historical shift where the DRC moved from being a large net carbon sink in 2000 to a small net emitter by 2010. The projections are based on GDP and population growth forecasts, though the report highlights substantial data gaps and uncertainties, particularly in the LULUCF and agriculture sectors.

The report establishes a business-as-usual emissions baseline for Rwanda from 1990 to 2030, identifying agriculture as the largest non-LULUCF emitting sector. It projects a transition from a significant net carbon sink in 2000 to a net emitter by 2010, with future projections based on GDP growth, population increases, and existing policies. The analysis highlights substantial data gaps and uncertainties, particularly in the LULUCF and agriculture sectors.

The document describes the 'energy-water collision,' a phenomenon where power plants—particularly conventional fossil-fuel and nuclear facilities—struggle to secure sufficient or cool enough water for cooling processes during heat waves and droughts. It identifies three primary types of collisions: insufficient water levels, incoming water that is too warm to cool plants, and outgoing water that exceeds temperature limits for environmental safety. The text highlights a surge in these incidents during the summer of 2012, noting that even plants on large bodies of water, such as the Millstone nuclear plant on Long Island Sound, are now susceptible to temperature-related shutdowns.

The Mohammed Enterprises Tanzania Ltd (MeTL) Group, a major conglomerate contributing 2.5% of Tanzania's GDP, faces significant operational barriers in the SADC region, primarily due to unreliable power, poor transport infrastructure, and regulatory uncertainty. MeTL reports that expensive and unreliable electricity makes local goods uncompetitive, with the Confederation of Tanzania Industry estimating annual business income losses of USD 19.6M from power interruptions. To mitigate these issues, MeTL is investing in a container depot near the Port of Dar es Salaam and planning biogas electricity generation from sisal waste. The group advocates for regional industrialization policies to protect strategic industries from competition from India and China, alongside the implementation of a regional Public Private Partnership (PPP) framework for infrastructure development.