Gas Ceiling

The report argues that replacing coal with natural gas is insufficient to meet U.S. climate goals due to continued CO2 emissions and methane leakage. It highlights risks including water contamination from fracking, price volatility, and the potential to crowd out renewables. The authors advocate for a transition to a system where renewables and efficiency provide 80% of electricity by 2050.

• A transition from a coal-dominated to a natural-gas-dominated electricity system is insufficient to meet U.S. climate goals because natural gas is a fossil fuel that produces CO2 when combusted and emits other global warming pollutants during extraction and distribution.
• While new combined-cycle natural gas plants emit 50 to 60 percent less CO2 per megawatt-hour than typical new coal plants, their climate advantage is reduced by fugitive methane emissions during drilling, extraction, and pipeline distribution. These methane leakages are estimated to range from 1 to 9 percent of total natural gas production.
• Overreliance on natural gas poses significant environmental and public health risks, particularly through hydraulic fracturing (fracking). These include the use of 70 billion to 140 billion gallons of water in 2011, potential contamination of drinking water with toxic chemicals like benzene, lead, and methanol, and the production of saline or radioactive wastewater.
• Expanded use of natural gas introduces economic risks due to price volatility and projected long-term price increases. The EIA projects that average wellhead prices will rise 194 percent from 2012 levels by 2040, which could make natural gas plants less competitive and increase consumer electricity rates.
• Analysis of various energy pathways indicates that to meet the National Research Council's carbon budget, natural gas must only play a limited or intermediate role. A 'Renewables and Efficiency' pathway, which targets 80 percent renewable energy by 2050, is identified as the lowest-cost option, potentially reducing consumer bills by one-third compared to a reference case.
• Natural gas can provide near-term benefits by replacing coal, as it emits fewer soot and smog-forming pollutants and lacks the mercury and arsenic emissions associated with coal. It can also support grid flexibility as peaking power or through combined-heat-and-power plants, which can reach 80 percent efficiency.

APA

Fleischman, L., Sattler, S., & Clemmer, S. (2013). Gas Ceiling. Union of Concerned Scientists. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate-risks-natural-gas.pdf

Chicago

Fleischman, Lesley, Sandra Sattler, and Steve Clemmer. Gas Ceiling. Union of Concerned Scientists, 2013. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate-risks-natural-gas.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Fleischman |first1=Lesley |last2=Sattler |first2=Sandra |last3=Clemmer |first3=Steve |title=Gas Ceiling |publisher=Union of Concerned Scientists |date=September 2013 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate-risks-natural-gas.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{fleischman2013gas, author = {Fleischman, Lesley and Sattler, Sandra and Clemmer, Steve}, title = {{Gas Ceiling}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2013}, month = sep, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/2019-09/climate-risks-natural-gas.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }