South Africa is bringing down the class average ‐ IMF Regional Economic Outlook for Sub‐Saharan Africa, October 2015

This briefing by the South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA) discusses the October 2015 IMF Regional Economic Outlook for Sub-Saharan Africa, highlighting the region's economic challenges and South Africa's specific vulnerabilities in growth, energy, and exports.

• Sub-Saharan Africa faces a gloomy economic outlook driven by falling oil and commodity prices, high energy costs, and a weak global financial environment, exacerbated by slowing growth in China and the US Federal Reserve's plans to raise interest rates.
• Among middle-income countries in the region, South Africa has the worst and declining growth projection, falling from just above 2% in October 2014 to below 2% in 2015. Its currency devaluation is comparable only to Ghana and the Gambia, and its electricity prices are among the highest, rivaled only by Angola and Liberia.
• South Africa has failed to increase exports despite a significant real effective exchange rate depreciation of approximately 25% between January 2011 and July 2014. During this time, its share of global exports dropped by nearly 15%, with growth recorded at 4.3%, attributed to power supply issues, social unrest, and labour market constraints.
• The IMF identifies South Africa, alongside Ghana, as being particularly weak in investing in new generation capacity and upgrading existing electricity facilities. South Africa's investment levels in electricity generation are considered on par with Zambia, Nigeria, Comoros, and Madagascar.
• The IMF suggests that South Africa, Angola, and Nigeria have the potential to increase tax revenue, specifically recommending VAT increases and improved public finance management to fund education and health.

APA

Bertelsmann‐Scott, T., & Markowitz, C. (2015). South Africa is bringing down the class average ‐ IMF Regional Economic Outlook for Sub‐Saharan Africa, October 2015. South African Institute of International Affairs. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/South-Africa-bringing-down-the-class-average-IMF-REO-October-2015.pdf

Chicago

Bertelsmann‐Scott, Talitha, and Chelsea Markowitz. South Africa is bringing down the class average ‐ IMF Regional Economic Outlook for Sub‐Saharan Africa, October 2015. South African Institute of International Affairs, 2015. https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/South-Africa-bringing-down-the-class-average-IMF-REO-October-2015.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bertelsmann‐Scott |first1=Talitha |last2=Markowitz |first2=Chelsea |title=South Africa is bringing down the class average ‐ IMF Regional Economic Outlook for Sub‐Saharan Africa, October 2015 |publisher=South African Institute of International Affairs |date=October 2015 |url=https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/South-Africa-bringing-down-the-class-average-IMF-REO-October-2015.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bertelsmannscott2015south, author = {Bertelsmann‐Scott, Talitha and Markowitz, Chelsea}, title = {{South Africa is bringing down the class average ‐ IMF Regional Economic Outlook for Sub‐Saharan Africa, October 2015}}, institution = {South African Institute of International Affairs}, year = {2015}, month = oct, url = {https://saiia.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/South-Africa-bringing-down-the-class-average-IMF-REO-October-2015.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }