Climate Risks of Overreliance on Natural Gas for Electricity

The U.S. electricity sector is shifting from coal to natural gas, with natural gas projected to account for nearly two-thirds of electricity by 2050 if current trends continue. However, this transition risks generating up to three times the carbon emissions recommended by the National Research Council (NRC) to limit climate change. While natural gas provides near-term public health benefits and supports grid reliability for variable renewables, it remains a fossil fuel that emits carbon dioxide and leaks methane. To meet the NRC's carbon budget, the U.S. must increase the share of renewable energy in the power supply to 25 percent by 2025 and 80 percent by 2050.

• The U.S. electricity sector is transitioning from coal to natural gas; coal's share of power generation dropped from 48 percent in 2008 to 37 percent in 2012, while natural gas generation increased by more than 50 percent in that same period. If these trends persist, natural gas could provide nearly two-thirds of U.S. electricity by 2050.
• A natural gas-dominated system is insufficient for climate goals because it would produce up to three times the carbon emissions recommended by the National Research Council (NRC), which suggests a 90 percent cut in power sector carbon emissions from current levels by 2050.
• Beyond carbon dioxide, natural gas poses climate risks through the leakage of methane during drilling, extraction, and pipeline distribution; methane is 25 times more potent than CO2 at trapping heat.
• Natural gas can serve a modest, near-term role by providing immediate public health benefits over coal—due to lower soot, smog-forming pollutants, and toxic substances—and by supporting the integration of variable renewable resources due to its ability to ramp up and down quickly.
• To align with the NRC's carbon budget, the U.S. must increase the share of renewable energy in its total power supply to 25 percent by 2025 and 80 percent by 2050, supported by energy efficiency and strong federal and state clean energy policies.

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (2013). Climate Risks of Overreliance on Natural Gas for Electricity. https://www.ucs.org/resources/climate-risks-overreliance-natural-gas-electricity

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. Climate Risks of Overreliance on Natural Gas for Electricity. 2013. https://www.ucs.org/resources/climate-risks-overreliance-natural-gas-electricity.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=Climate Risks of Overreliance on Natural Gas for Electricity |date=15 October 2013 |url=https://www.ucs.org/resources/climate-risks-overreliance-natural-gas-electricity |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientists2013climate, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{Climate Risks of Overreliance on Natural Gas for Electricity}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2013}, month = oct, url = {https://www.ucs.org/resources/climate-risks-overreliance-natural-gas-electricity}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }