The Natural Gas Gamble

The report examines the transition of the U.S. power sector from coal to natural gas, noting that while this shift provides immediate benefits, it introduces risks such as price volatility, methane leakage, and potential 'stranded assets'. Using the National Energy Modeling System, the analysis compares a 'Business as Usual' scenario with a 'Carbon Standard plus Renewables and Efficiency Policies' scenario. The findings suggest that the latter would reduce power plant carbon emissions by 70 percent below 2005 levels by 2040, lower consumer energy bills, and provide significant net societal benefits, reaching nearly $170 billion by 2040.

• The transition from coal to natural gas in the U.S. electricity mix between 2007 and 2013 saw coal's share drop from approximately 50 percent to 39 percent, while natural gas grew from 22 percent to 27 percent.
• Overreliance on natural gas presents several risks, including historical price volatility, public health and environmental threats from hydraulic fracturing, and the risk of creating 'stranded assets' as costly infrastructure may be abandoned to meet climate goals.
• Methane leakage during the extraction, distribution, and storage of natural gas undermines its climate advantages over coal, as methane is 34 times more powerful than carbon dioxide at trapping heat over a 100-year period.
• Under a 'Business as Usual' scenario through 2040, total natural gas use is projected to rise by nearly 18 percent, with the power sector accounting for 49 percent of that increase, leading to higher electricity and natural gas prices.
• A scenario combining a carbon standard with renewable energy and energy efficiency policies could reduce power plant carbon emissions to 70 percent below 2005 levels by 2040, while increasing the share of non-hydro renewables to 39 percent of total generation.
• The 'Carbon Standard plus Renewables and Efficiency Policies' scenario is projected to be more economically beneficial for consumers and society, with annual net consumer savings reaching $59 billion by 2040 and net societal benefits growing to nearly $170 billion in the same year.

APA

Union of Concerned Scientists (2015). The Natural Gas Gamble. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/03/natural-gas-gamble-executive-summary.pdf

Chicago

Union of Concerned Scientists. The Natural Gas Gamble. 2015. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/03/natural-gas-gamble-executive-summary.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Union of Concerned Scientists |title=The Natural Gas Gamble |date=March 2015 |url=https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/03/natural-gas-gamble-executive-summary.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{unionofconcernedscientists2015natural, author = {{Union of Concerned Scientists}}, title = {{The Natural Gas Gamble}}, institution = {Union of Concerned Scientists}, year = {2015}, month = mar, url = {https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/03/natural-gas-gamble-executive-summary.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }